Market Watch (December 31)
“After a big run-up during the first half of 2024, crude-oil prices have mostly drifted lower over the past six months.” Signs of life began to emerge toward the end of 2024. “Gains for the commodity during the fourth quarter were the strongest since the first three months of 2024, which some analysts interpreted as a sign that prices could move even higher in 2025.”
Tags: 2024, 2025, Analysts, Commodity, Crude-oil prices, Drifted, Gains, Higher, Lower, Q1, Q4, Run-up
U.S. News and World Report (December 30)
“The past two years have defied economists’ predictions for a slowing economy, or even a recession.” Despite increased risk and uncertainty arising from the “wild card of Trump,” the U.S. economy “should remain strong” as it is buoyed by “a moderating labor market, lower interest rates and strong household income.” Household wealth has surged 40% to $150 trillion since 2020, “while debt service payments measured as a percentage of income have largely remained static.”
Tags: Defied, Economy, Household income, Interest rates, Labor market, Predictions, Recession, Risk, Slowing Economy, Trump, U.S., Uncertainty, Wealth Debt service, Wild card
Wall Street Journal (December 28)
“Corporate America pulled back on diversity programs in 2024 under pressure from activists.” The new year will bring greater challenges as the incoming Trump administration gears up “to end diversity, equity and inclusion, or DEI, policies.” Many corporates “still support diversity efforts, even if they avoid the term, bend to the demands of activists or try to sidestep skirmishes with Trump’s administration. CEOs also risk backlash among customers and employees.”
Tags: 2024, Activists, Backlash, CEOs, Corporate America, Customers, DEI, Demands, Diversity programs, Employees, Equity, Inclusion, Pressure, Sidestep, Trump administration
IPE Real Assets (December Issue)
“There is now a virtual universal consensus amongst economists. The US has successfully navigated a soft landing and its growth outlook is the brightest of all the G7 economies. In December, the OECD published a forecast of 2.4% GDP growth for the US in 2025, versus 1.3% for the eurozone and just 0.7% for Germany. Some even suggest it is an underestimate.”
Tags: 2025, Consensus, Economists, eurozone, Forecast, G7 economies, GDP growth, Germany, Growth outlook, Navigated, OECD, Soft landing, U.S., Underestimate
New York Times (December 26)
“Despite lingering inflation, Americans increased their spending this holiday season, early data shows. That comes as a big relief for retailers that had spent much of the year fearing the economy would soon weaken and consumer spending would fall. Year on year, “retail sales from Nov. 1 to Dec. 24 increased 3.1 percent.”
Tags: Consumer spending, Economy, Fearing, Holiday season, Increased, Inflation, Lingering, Relief, Retail sales, Retailers, Weaken
Washington Post (December 24)
“Congressional Republicans have a new headache: Elon Musk.” Republicans have grown “used to the drawbacks of working with Trump,” especially the need “to anticipate what would draw the president’s wrath.” Now, however, they need to anticipate “what will bring them negative attention from Musk. They can’t count on either man to telegraph his views well ahead of time or privately; they will just have to keep a social media tab open.”
Tags: Congress, Drawbacks, Headache, Musk, Negative attention, Republicans, Social media, Telegraph, Trump, Wrath
Institutional Investor (December 23)
“ESG and DEI may be under attack,” but they are unlikely to disappear. “Recent high-profile news like the case led by the Texas Attorney General against BlackRock, Vanguard Group, and State Street Global Advisors… are indicative of the battle taking place across the country.” However, the economic argument for ESG and DEI programs suggests they will persist. Conversely, “restrictive policies at the state or federal level are liable to cost both businesses and investors.”
Tags: Attack, BlackRock, Businesses, Cost, DEI, Economic argument, ESG, Restrictive policies, State Street, Texas, Vanguard
Barron’s (December 23)
Brazil ends 2024 in a paradox. The economy is strong with GDP expected to “reach 3% for the third year running. Unemployment is at a record low and the trade surplus at an all-time high.” Nevertheless, “markets are awful.” Investors appear to be “looking past the healthy present to a recurrence of Brazil’s chronic economic disease: excessive government spending that spurs runaway inflation and crowds out growth with debt payments.”
Tags: 2024, Brazil, Chronic, Debt payments, Economy, GDP, Government spending, Growth, Investors, Markets, Paradox, Recurrence, Runaway inflation, Trade surplus, Unemployment
Reuters (December 23)
“EU industries pay power prices 2-3 times higher than those in the U.S. Taxes made up, on average, 23% of the retail electricity price paid by Europe’s energy-intensive firms in 2023.” In addition, energy-intensive industries face “a more fragmented market than China and difficult access to credit.” Lowering taxes might be a way for policymakers “to offer fast relief” to industry.
Tags: China, Credit, Energy-intensive, EU, Fragmented market, Higher, Industry, Policymakers, Power prices, Relief, Retail electricity, Taxes, U.S.
New York Times (December 22)
“An annual ritual is underway at the major Wall Street investment houses: predicting exactly where the S&P 500 will finish the next calendar year.” Since 2000, the Wall Street consensus has failed miserably at this fool’s errand, predicting only gains when there were seven years of losses. Their average “variance between actual annual performance and the prediction was huge — an average gap of 14.2 percentage points.”
Tags: 14.2 percentage points, 2000, Consensus, Fool’s errand, Gains, Investment houses, Losses, Performance, Prediction, Ritual, S&P 500, Variance, Wall Street
