IPE Real Assets (December Issue)
“There is now a virtual universal consensus amongst economists. The US has successfully navigated a soft landing and its growth outlook is the brightest of all the G7 economies. In December, the OECD published a forecast of 2.4% GDP growth for the US in 2025, versus 1.3% for the eurozone and just 0.7% for Germany. Some even suggest it is an underestimate.”
Tags: 2025, Consensus, Economists, eurozone, Forecast, G7 economies, GDP growth, Germany, Growth outlook, Navigated, OECD, Soft landing, U.S., Underestimate
CNN (October 30)
“The US economy seems to have pulled off a remarkable and historic achievement.” James Bullard, the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, is among the “economists and officials who told CNN the economy has finally pulled off” a soft landing. “That scenario, in which inflation is tamed without a recession” would mark “an exceptionally rare achievement.”
Tags: Bullard, Economists, Economy, Fed, Historic, Inflation, Officials, Rare, Recession, Remarkable, Soft landing, St. Louis, Tamed, U.S.
Bloomberg (October 21)
“The global economy is heading toward year end with unexpected tailwinds as slowing inflation clears a path for an unlikely soft landing. But while the economics side of the equation is looking up, political hurdles lie ahead.” The biggest hurdle may be the U.S. election. “The resilience of the world’s major economies is about to be tested” if Trump is elected and institutes his tariff program.
Tags: Economics, Election, Global economy, Inflation, Major economies, Political hurdles, Resilience, Soft landing, Tailwinds, Trump, U.S., Unexpected
CNN (October 9)
“The S&P 500 index has gained roughly 21% for the year, notching dozens of record highs along the way as artificial intelligence enthusiasm helps drive stocks higher.” Amid “rising confidence that the US economy will achieve a soft landing” and recent data points suggesting strong economic footing, investors will be “looking to the upcoming earnings season for clues about the US economy’s health.”
Tags: 21%, Artificial intelligence, Clues, Confidence, Earnings season, Economy, Enthusiasm, Health, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/09/investing/earnings-companies-stocks/index.html S&P 500, Investors, Record highs, Soft landing, US
Fortune (May 6)
“Last year’s consensus was that the U.S. economy was headed for a recession, but that didn’t happen. This year’s consensus is that we’ll have a soft landing, in which the economy slows but won’t tip into a recession.” But contrarians like Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi’s chief U.S. economist, believe “a hard landing” is now imminent.
Tags: Citi, Consensus, Contrarians, Economist, Economy, Hard landing, Hollenhorst, Imminent, Recession, Slows, Soft landing, U.S.
Washington Post (January 19)
“The S&P 500 hit an all-time closing high Friday.” Up over 1% from Thursday, the index closed at 4,839.81, “surpassing the previous closing record set in January of 2022.” Support stems from confidence in an economy that has averted a recession, apparently achieving an elusive soft-landing. Analysts also “point to an AI-driven frenzy on Wall Street that rivals the dot-com boom of the late ’90s, when investors sought to capitalize on the transformative gains brought by the early internet.”
Tags: AI, Analysts, Boom, Capitalize, Dot-com, Economy, Frenzy, Gains, High, Internet, Investors, Recession, Record Confidence, Rivals, S&P 500, Soft landing, Transformative, Wall Street
Institutional Investor (September 5)
“Hard landing? Soft landing? No recession after all? As economic news that’s far rosier than most analysts expected to see this summer keeps coming in, a growing number of pundits are now openly wondering if the ‘severe downturn’ long predicted to strike by late 2023 may turn out to be milder (and later in coming) than even the cheeriest of them had recently envisioned.”
Tags: 2023, Analysts, Envisioned, Hard landing, Later, Milder, Predicted, Pundits, Recession, Rosier, Severe downturn, Soft landing
Financial Times (September 1)
“The US labour market cooled in August, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve is successfully orchestrating a soft landing for the world’s largest economy. Investors hailed a possible Goldilocks scenario in which inflation comes under control without causing a recession, as Friday’s figures revealed an uptick in the unemployment rate, subdued jobs growth and wage rises back at pre-Covid rates.”
Tags: August, Cooled, Fed, Goldilocks scenario, Hopes, Inflation, Investors, Jobs growth, Recession, Soft landing, U.S., Unemployment, Wage rises
Investment Week (May 18)
“Credit fundamentals have worsened since the market sell-off began, although central banks could provide some companies with a soft landing and many firms have drawn on their credit lines in a bid to stay afloat.” Even though “the impact is highly correlated across geographies, industries and asset classes…the potential outcomes are too severe to only affect equities and credit-market fundamentals have undoubtedly been impacted.”
Tags: Asset classes, Central banks, Correlated, Credit, Equities, Fundamentals, Geographies, Industries, Market, Outcomes, Sell-off, Severe, Soft landing, Worsened
Bloomberg (March 8)
“China’s second interest-rate cut in three months has raised fears that the government is trying to devalue the yuan to give its exports an unfair boost — an understandable suspicion.” In this case, however, “lower interest rates and a moderately weaker yuan make sense not just for China but for the rest of the world as well.” These factors should help Chinese leaders achieve their “soft landing” growth target of 7%. “The rest of the world no less than China needs this soft landing to be smoothly accomplished.”
Tags: China, Devalue, Exports, Government, Growth, Interest rate, Soft landing, Yuan
