Bloomberg (September 26)
“Asian markets risk a reprise of crisis-level stress as two of the region’s most important currencies crumble under the onslaught of relentless dollar strength. The yuan and yen are both tumbling due to the growing disparity between an uber-hawkish Federal Reserve and dovish policy makers in China and Japan.”
Tags: Asia, China, Crisis, Crumble, Currencies, Disparity, Dollar, Dovish, Fed, Hawkish, Markets, Onslaught, Relentless, Risk, Stress, Tumbling, Yen, Yuan
The Guardian (August 13)
“Forget doom-laden headlines, the dollar has not gone into terminal decline.” In fact, the dollar’s resiliency has been upheld even though “Donald Trump’s administration has done more than any in living memory to disrupt US trade” and has transformed the nation into an unreliable alliance partner. And yet, “the currency’s international role has not diminished significantly.” The simple truth is “there is no alternative. The euro is not an alternative…. Nor is the yuan a viable alternative.”
Tags: Alliance partner, Alternative, Currency, Decline, Diminished, Disrupt, Dollar, Doom, euro, Resiliency, Trade, Trump, U.S., Unreliable, Yuan
CBS News (May 13)
“The U.S. imports far more Chinese goods than China imports from the U.S. So China can’t directly impose retaliatory tariffs equal to Mr. Trump’s…. The U.S. just doesn’t send enough goods to China.” China could, however, let the yuan weaken and this may prove their best response. “If the Chinese currency were to drop in value, it would make the country’s goods less expensive in foreign markets, propping up export demand and volume abroad.”
Tags: China, Currency, Export demand, Imports, Retaliatory, Tariffs, Trump, U.S., Weaken, Yuan
Bloomberg (August 10)
“The slide in China’s currency paused this week after jawboning by the central bank,” but the rout may not be over. “The ripples of the yuan’s 4.7 percent drop this year may be just starting to spread to the country’s neighbors” such as Vietnam, where the “dong has been moving steadily closer to the edge of its 3 percent daily trading band against the dollar over the past two weeks, as traders bet on faster depreciation.” Moreover, Vietnam is only half caught up with the drop in China’s currency, “suggesting further depreciation is possible – particularly if the yuan resumes its decline.”
Tags: Central bank, China, Currency, Depreciation, Dong, Ripples, Rout, Slide, Trading band, Vietnam, Yuan
Bloomberg (June 2)
“China’s yuan policy has blindsided forecasters once again. The sudden surge in the last four days — for the onshore exchange rate, it’s been the steepest gain in more than four months — pushed the currency beyond levels predicted by even the most optimistic analysts.” At least eight analysts rushing to change their estimates. This is not the first time they have been caught flat footed. “Market watchers were caught off guard earlier in the year as well, when the yuan confounded expectations by strengthening in the first quarter.”
Tags: Analysts, Blindsided, China, Confounded, Currency, Exchange rate, Expectations, Forecasters, Gain, Yuan
Wall Street Journal (January 11)
“Beijing’s erratic response to the falling yuan and stock prices has exposed policy disarray. But behind the scenes an important debate has been raging over how to revive economic growth that some analysts believe is below 5%.”
Tags: Beijing, China, Disarray, Economic growth, Erratic, Response, Stock prices, Yuan
Bloomberg (August 19)
“Beijing still believes money can buy the trust and soft power it craves, which explains the new $100 billion Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank it has sponsored. But as long as analysts don’t feel the Chinese government’s pronouncements are genuinely reliable, skepticism about the yuan will only grow.”
Tags: AIIB, Beijing, Government, Money, Reliable, Skepticism, Soft power, Trust, Yuan
Institutional Investors (August 15)
“As earnings season winds down, investors around the globe are left to consider how a shifting macro environment will impact different asset classes and geographies.” Fears of a continuing yuan devaluation “will factor into perceptions of nearly all the major data points that will emerge.”
Tags: Asset classes, Data points, Devaluation, Earnings, Geographies, Investors, Macro environment, Yuan
Bloomberg (March 8)
“China’s second interest-rate cut in three months has raised fears that the government is trying to devalue the yuan to give its exports an unfair boost — an understandable suspicion.” In this case, however, “lower interest rates and a moderately weaker yuan make sense not just for China but for the rest of the world as well.” These factors should help Chinese leaders achieve their “soft landing” growth target of 7%. “The rest of the world no less than China needs this soft landing to be smoothly accomplished.”
Tags: China, Devalue, Exports, Government, Growth, Interest rate, Soft landing, Yuan
Wall Street Journal (December 9)
Many still blame an artificially high yuan for ongoing economic woes in the U.S. Markets say otherwise. “The yuan has traded at the softer edge of the narrow band around which Beijing allows its exchange rate to fluctuate, notwithstanding Beijing’s effort to push the reference rate stronger.” Other facts also point to an overvalued, not undervalued, Chinese currency. October marked China’s first net outflow of capital since 2007. Wealthy Chinese, importers and exporters are increasingly retaining dollars or moving money offshore. “Insiders are wary of the currency’s—and the economy’s—near-term future.”
