New York Times (February 2)
The “disconnect” between cautious Fed statements and “investor expectations” is rooted in the tension between current data and projections. “Many forecasters expect the labor market, as well as inflation in many kinds of services, to weaken this year as the full effect of the Fed’s rate moves plays out; the Fed, on the other hand, is waiting for clearer signs in the data.”
Tags: Data, Disconnect, Expectations, Fed, Forecasters, Inflation, Investor, Labor market, Projections, Rates, Services, Tension
US News and World Report (July 17)
“Just as the European Union was announcing plans to spend billions of euros to contain climate change, massive clouds gathered over Germany and nearby nations to unleash an unprecedented storm that left death and destruction in its wake.” Both politicians and weather forecasters were left “shocked at the ferocity of the precipitation that caused flash flooding that claimed more than 150 lives.”
Tags: Climate change, Death, Destruction, EU, Euros, Ferocity, Forecasters, Germany, Politicians, Precipitation, Shocked, Storm, Unprecedented, Weather
Financial Times (August 15, 2020)
“Forecasters least understand what is going on, and so make their biggest errors, when an economy is hit by a shock that is both novel and large. The coronavirus pandemic is both.”
Tags: Coronavirus, Economy, Errors, Forecasters, Novel, Shock, Understand
ABC News (December 18)
“Australia has sweltered through its hottest day on record as the ongoing heatwave starts to bite across parts of the country. The Bureau of Meteorology says the national average for yesterday was 40.9 degrees, eclipsing the previous record set just six years ago. But forecasters say the record could be broken again, with the heat set to intensify over the next two days.”
Tags: Australia, Broken, Forecasters, Heat, Heatwave, Hottest, Intensify, National average, Record, Sweltered
Bloomberg (June 2)
“China’s yuan policy has blindsided forecasters once again. The sudden surge in the last four days — for the onshore exchange rate, it’s been the steepest gain in more than four months — pushed the currency beyond levels predicted by even the most optimistic analysts.” At least eight analysts rushing to change their estimates. This is not the first time they have been caught flat footed. “Market watchers were caught off guard earlier in the year as well, when the yuan confounded expectations by strengthening in the first quarter.”
Tags: Analysts, Blindsided, China, Confounded, Currency, Exchange rate, Expectations, Forecasters, Gain, Yuan
Institutional Investor (August 21)
Black swan events “will continue to jolt global markets. But when even the best of human forecasters struggle to predict with accuracy the outcomes of these events, how can pension plans, for example, effectively make decisions to better weather the volatility that follows.” Big data may hold the key. “Using big data to track media sentiment, volume, tone and correlation can help institutional investors understand the diffusion of ideas and outliers that can serve as clues for unexpected risk.”
Tags: Accuracy, Big Data, Black swan, Correlation, Diffusion, Forecasters, Global markets, Human, Jolt, Outcomes, Outliers, Pension plans, Sentiment, Unexpected risk, Volatility
