Wall Street Journal (June 18)
The Japanese yen “has now passed the closely watched 160-per-dollar level at which officials have previously intervened.” There are, however, reasons “why yen interventions this time around may prove trickier.” Even though the BoJ increased “rates to their highest level since 1995 this week,” the interest rate differential persists between Japan and the U.S., and this continues to punish the currency, as does the situation in the Middle East.
Tags: 160-per-dollar, 1995, BOJ, Currency, Differential, Interest rate, Intervened, Interventions, Japan, Middle East, Officials, Punish, Trickier, U.S., Yen
South China Morning Post (June 15)
“Japan is falling into a trap in defending its currency against the US dollar, like Thailand in 1996. Japan’s large forex reserves make the yen a juicy target, rather than deterring currency predators. Its fundamentals are weak and deteriorating, making the yen’s further decline inevitable.”
Tags: 1996. Forex reserves, Currency, Decline, Defending, Deteriorating, Dollar, Fundamentals, Japan, Predators, Target, Thailand, Trap, U.S., Weak, Yen
South China Morning Post (April 6)
“China’s yuan may be going global faster than Western data suggests” as “many yuan transactions are now routed through China’s own global payment system, which often does not show up in traditional data sets.” Such an understatement by mainstream metrics “could help explain the gap between Beijing’s official narrative–which describes the yuan as the world’s third-largest payment currency–and readings from tracking systems such as the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (Swift).”
Tags: China, Currency, Gap, Global, Global payment system, Mainstream metrics, Traditional data sets, Understatement, Western data, Yuan, Yuan transactions
European Business Magazine (February 2)
“Xi Jinping wants the renminbi to become a global reserve currency to reduce China’s dependence on the US dollar, strengthen financial sovereignty and expand Beijing’s influence over global trade and capital flows. While the currency’s use in trade settlement is growing, capital controls and limited market access remain key barriers to full reserve-currency status.”
Tags: Barriers, Capital controls, Capital flows, China, Currency, Dependence, Dollar, Financial sovereignty, Global trade, Influence, Limited market access, Renminbi, Reserve currency, Trade settlement, U.S., Xi
MarketWatch (January 26)
“The U.S. dollar took another hit on Monday, weakening to its lowest levels in four months, as talk of a coordinated intervention to prop up the competing Japanese yen intensified. A stronger Japanese currency could end up translating into trouble for U.S. stocks, as it did on Aug. 5, 2024, when a sharp unwinding of the yen carry trade was blamed for a selloff in global equities.”
Tags: Blamed, Carry trade, Coordinated intervention, Currency, Dollar, Japan, Prop up, Selloff, Stocks, U.S., Unwinding, Weakening, Yen
Financial Times (June 8)
“Donald Trump’s gyrations on trade policy have not broken global financial markets just yet — but what is happening in Hong Kong shows they are feeling the strain.” For over a month, Hong Kong’s interest rates remained fixed at just above 0%, which is peculiar, “Its currency is pegged to the US dollar” so this presents a prime arbitrage opportunity, which is going untaken. “This little episode reveals a disturbing fragility. Markets may appear to be taking all of the Trumpian disruption in their stride, but when a dislocation of this sort persists for more than a month, it is a warning sign. Watch out for trouble ahead.”
Tags: 0%, Arbitrage, Broken, Currency, Dislocation, Dollar, Fragility, Global financial markets, Gyrations, Hong Kong, Interest rates, Peg, Strain, Trade policy, Trump, U.S.
Market Watch (May 5)
“Taiwan’s currency is exploding,” as are fears about the “$767 billion of foreign assets held by Taiwan’s life insurers.” In a “classic case of liability and asset mismatching,” Taiwan’s life insurers “have put their assets into U.S.-dollar-denominated bonds… without hedging the currency risk.” This has resulted in “what’s called a 19-sigma shock,” as the Taiwanese dollar strengthened dramatically, exceeding “the typical move by 19 standard deviations in a world where a 3-sigma event is…. much rarer than even 1 in a trillion.”
Tags: $767 billion, 19-sigma shock, Bonds, Currency, Currency risk, Dollar-denominated, Exploding, Fears, Foreign assets, Hedging, Liability, Life insurers, Mismatching, Taiwan
Wall Street Journal (March 10)
Mr. Trump issued a new executive order directing the Treasury Department to take the first steps in establishing what he refers to as “a crypto version of Fort Knox.” This proposal “invites government abuse.” Basically, a “government crypto reserve serves no good purpose while creating an opportunity for political bad behavior. Let private investors speculate all they want without the government having a stake in crypto-currency prices.”
Tags: Abuse, Bad behavior, Crypto, Crypto reserve, Currency, Executive order, Fort Knox, Government, Investors, Prices, Private, Speculate, Stake, Treasury Department, Trump
Financial Times (June 5)
“India’s benchmark Nifty 50 rose 2.3 per cent following a sharp sell-off on Tuesday after a shock election result.” Meanwhile “Japan’s Topix index led losses as it dropped 1.4 per cent, driven lower by a decline in the financial and energy sectors. The yen was the region’s worst-performing currency as it fell 0.6 per cent against the dollar to ¥155.75.”
Tags: Benchmark, Currency, Decline, Election, Energy, Financial, India, Japan, Nifty 50, Sell-off, Shock, Topix, Worst-performing, Yen
The Economist (May 4)
“It is easy for investors to lose a fortune in the financial markets—and even easier for governments.” When Japan tried to prop up the yen in 2022, the nation “spent more than $60bn of its foreign-exchange reserves,” but supporting a currency “is expensive and futile.” Since breaking the ¥160/$1 barrier, there are rumors of another intervention. As long as the giant interest rate gap exists with the U.S., Japan would be “wrong to try to prop up the yen.”
Tags: $60bn, ¥160/$1, 2022, Currency, Expensive, Financial markets, Forex, Futile, Governments, Interest rate, Intervention, Investors, Japan, Reserves, Yen
