Bloomberg (October 4)
As Middle East crude flows return to near-normal levels, “global prices remain stuck above $100, roughly 40% higher than when the conflict began.” The elevated prices are “sending shock waves through the global economy, feeding inflation and squeezing industries and consumers alike,” but rapid improvement is unlikely. “A confluence of problems” now keeps prices high:” depleted inventories and reserves that need to be replaced, fears the “unresolved war could reignite,” the drastically increased cost of transit, and elsewhere Russia’s war with Ukraine has curtailed other supplies.
Tags: 100, 40% higher, Conflict, Confluence, Consumers, Cost, Crude, Depleted inventories, Fears, Global economy, Industries, Inflation, Middle East, Reignite, Reserves, Russia, Shock waves, Transit, War
Time (July 16)
“Iran’s return to conflict is best read as a calculated gamble…. Above all, Tehran’s leadership fears a staged unwinding of its leverage. Once it stops threatening shipping and restrains its regional partners, those tools become difficult to recover.” While Iran may be “running a familiar playbook of escalating to deescalate” and may have an “accurate reading” of President Donald Trump’s desire “to avoid rising energy prices, American casualties, and another open ended war in the Middle East;” there’s less certainty about how that deescalation will come about. “There is no formal consensus… and no faction willing to move first on anything that could be portrayed as surrendering leverage, legitimizing the bombing campaign, or handing Trump a clear victory.”
Tags: Calculated, Casualties, Certainty, Conflict, Deescalate, Energy prices, Escalating, Fears, Iran, Leadership, Legitimizing, Leverage, Middle East, Recover, Shipping, Threatening, Tools, Trump, War
The Guardian (July 7)
“Fears of a recession have fallen away, with economists saying Australia is set to safely navigate the biggest global oil supply shock in history even as they warn of substandard growth in the year ahead. The de-escalation of the Middle East conflict has been accompanied by a major retreat in global oil prices back to prewar levels, essentially removing the worst-case scenarios.” But pessimism still runs deep amongst households, with consumer confidence at roughly “a 50-year low as many Australians struggle to cope with substantially higher prices after years of above-average inflation.”
Tags: Australia, Consumer confidence, Cope, De-escalation, Economists, Fears, Global oil prices, Households, Inflation, Middle East conflict, Pessimism, Recession, Retreat, Struggle, Supply shock
Reuters (May 28)
“Japan Inc’s fears of a breakup boom are understandable. There were a record 56 activist campaigns against Tokyo-listed companies last year, according to Barclays. The tally was more than all of Europe put together and second only to the United States.”
Tags: Activist campaigns, Barclays, Breakup boom, Companies, Europe, Fears, Japan Inc., Record, Tokyo-listed, U.S., Understandable
Barron’s (May 27)
“Stocks are near their all-time highs.” Moreover, “investors are nervous about the numerous risks that could hit stocks and the economy. High oil prices and persistent inflation fears. The possibility that this will push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Worries about artificial-intelligence disrupting software and other sectors.” Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs believes equities “are still good investments” because “rapidly rising earnings could keep pushing up stock prices” and, rather than dumping equities, investors can manage risk in other ways.
Tags: AI, All-time highs, Earnings, Economy, Equities, Fears, Fed, Goldman Sachs, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Nervous, Numerous, Oil prices, Stock prices, Stocks
The Times (May 27)
“Corporate leaders who think decades ahead in business become incredibly short-sighted in advocacy, financing ideas that become roadblocks to innovation and growth.” Big Tech is currently finding out about the phenomena that Milton Friedman dubbed “the suicidal impulse of the business community.” For years, Big Tech “helped fund climate activism,” but they now face “backlash as AI data centres drive demand for energy and infrastructure growth.”
Tags: AI, All-time highs, Earnings, Economy, Equities, Fears, Fed, Goldman Sachs, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Nervous, Numerous, Oil prices, Risk, Stock prices, Stocks
Barron’s (May 5)
“Bad news for investors: Another major disruption to global shipping may be on the horizon. There has been a spate of attacks on ships near the Horn of Africa in recent weeks, raising fears of a resurgence in Somali piracy 15 years after the peak of a multiyear crisis that leveled a heavy cost on the global economy.”
Tags: Bad news, Cost, Crisis, Fears, Global economy, Global shipping, Horn of Africa, Investors, Major disruption, Peak, Resurgence, Somali piracy, Spate of attacks
Financial Times (February 1)
“Fears of an AI jobs apocalypse are growing. At Davos, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said the technology would hit labour markets like a “tsunami.” But much of this is hype or misassigned blame for job losses that really stem from other factors. You shouldn’t “fear the AI ‘jobpocalypse.’ The technology hasn’t yet hit employment notably, and could create more openings.”
Tags: AI, Apocalypse, Davos, Employment, Fears, Hype, Job losses, Labour markets, Misassigned blame, Technology, Tsunami
Fortune (January 18)
“The greenback dropped while precious metals rallied Sunday as financial markets started reacting to President Donald Trump’s new tariff threats.” On Saturday, Trump announced 8 European allies would face “a 10% tariff starting on Feb. 1 that will rise to 25% on June 1, until a ‘Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland.’” His latest threat revived smoldering fears centering on “U.S. debt and reserve currency status.”
Tags: 10%, 25%, Allies, Debt, Fears, Financial markets, Greenback, Greenland, Precious metals, Rallied, Reserve currency, Tariff, Threats, Trump
Bloomberg (January 18)
“The new year was supposed to bring opportunities for beaten-down software stocks. Instead, the group is off to its worst start in years.” Amid fears that AI will undercut the benefits of software, “valuations for software companies keep getting cheaper. The Morgan Stanley basket is priced at 18 times earnings projected over the next 12 months, its cheapest on record, and well below an average of more than 55 times over the past decade.”
Tags: AI, Beaten-down, Benefits, Cheaper, Fears, Morgan Stanley, Opportunities, Software, Software stocks, Undercut, Valuations, Worst start
