Barron’s (March 26)
“The war in Iran and consequent blockage of the Strait of Hormuz offer a stark reminder of a different geopolitical risk, one lurking in tech-heavy global portfolios that are betting on artificial intelligence: Taiwan.” 75% of global foundry revenue originates in the island nation. “Investors often put Taiwan in the ‘too big to fail’ bucket, meaning China wouldn’t dare attack anytime soon because of the cascading ramifications…. But the far-reaching ripples from Iran’s attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, itself once thought to be in the unlikely bucket, is a reminder of the risks to global chokeholds and the potential spillover from geopolitical conflict.”
Tags: AI, Attack, Cascading, China, Foundry, Geopolitical risk, Global chokeholds, Hormuz, Investors, Iran, Ramifications, Revenue, Spillover, Taiwan, War
South China Morning Post (November 26)
“No winter lasts forever, but the deep chill in the Beijing-Tokyo relationship set off by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan could last a long time.” There is speculation “that Japan’s new prime minister could tighten her hold on power should relations between Beijing and Tokyo remain frosty, but there is one big wild card: “US President Donald Trump’s reluctance to show open support for Japan, America’s closest ally in the region.”
Tags: Ally, Beijing, Deep chill, Frosty, Japan, Power, Relationship, Reluctance, Speculation, Support, Taiwan, Takaichi, Tokyo, Trump, U.S.
Market Watch (May 5)
“Taiwan’s currency is exploding,” as are fears about the “$767 billion of foreign assets held by Taiwan’s life insurers.” In a “classic case of liability and asset mismatching,” Taiwan’s life insurers “have put their assets into U.S.-dollar-denominated bonds… without hedging the currency risk.” This has resulted in “what’s called a 19-sigma shock,” as the Taiwanese dollar strengthened dramatically, exceeding “the typical move by 19 standard deviations in a world where a 3-sigma event is…. much rarer than even 1 in a trillion.”
Tags: $767 billion, 19-sigma shock, Bonds, Currency, Currency risk, Dollar-denominated, Exploding, Fears, Foreign assets, Hedging, Liability, Life insurers, Mismatching, Taiwan
The Guardian (June 14)
“Decades of declining births mean there are no longer enough students to fill classrooms…. Taiwan is struggling to achieve the ‘replacement rate’ needed to maintain a stable population. That rate is 2.1 babies per woman, but Taiwan hasn’t hit that number since the mid-80s. In 2023, the rate was 0.865.”
Tags: Classrooms, Declining births, Population, Replacement rate, Stable, Struggling, Students, Taiwan
The Week (January 5)
Taiwan’s January 13 presidential election “will have major implications for domestic and global politics.” Current president Tsai Ing-wen is limited to two terms and must step down. Current favorite Vice President Lai Ching-te is likely to continue cozy relations with the U.S., further distancing Taipei and Beijing. His victory might “rankle Xi’s government and increase pressure in the form of military activities around the island.”
Tags: Beijing, Favorite, Implications, January 13, Lai, Military activities, Politics, Presidential election, Pressure, Rankle, Successor, Taiwan, Tsai, U.S., Victory, VP, Xi
Washington Post (July 1)
July 1 “used to be a day of celebration in the city. Now, it has morphed into a morbid reminder of Hong Kong’s tragic decline under the ever-worsening repression brought on by Beijing.” Hong Kong’s tragedy has great bearing for Taiwan. It “proves that Beijing’s proposal of ‘one country, two systems’ is a delusion — and that any promises Xi makes regarding Taiwan’s continued autonomy under reunification are worthless.”
Tags: Autonomy, Beijing, Celebration, Decline, Delusion, Hong Kong, July 1, Morbid reminder, Promises, Repression, Reunification, Taiwan, Tragedy, Worsening, Xi
The Economist (March 23)
“On Ukraine China has played an awkward hand ruthlessly and well. Its goals are subtle: to ensure Russia is subordinate but not so weak that Mr Putin’s regime implodes; to burnish its own credentials as a peacemaker in the eyes of the emerging world; and, with an eye on Taiwan, to undermine the perceived legitimacy of Western sanctions and military support as a tool of foreign policy.”
Tags: China, Legitimacy, Peacemaker, Perceived, Putin, Russia, Ruthlessly, Sanctions, Subordinate, Taiwan, Ukraine, Undermine
Washington Post (August 17)
“By next year, India will become the most populous nation. This, like House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s splendidly insouciant visit to Taiwan, will diminish today’s fatalism about China — the fallacious assumption that its trajectory is inevitably upward, so it must be accommodated.” Chinese labor is now “increasingly expensive and decreasingly abundant,” as its population peaks and declines by roughly half.
Tags: Abundant, China, Diminish, Expensive, Fallacious, Fatalism, India, Labor, Peaks, Pelosi, Population, Populous, Taiwan, Trajectory
Wall Street Journal (August 5)
“China’s firing of missiles near Japan has left little doubt that Tokyo would be pulled into any potential war over Taiwan—and would be part of the U.S.-led alliance likely to defend the island.”
New York Times (June 23)
“First pineapples, now fish.” China is flexing its “economic muscle” with import bans that “pressure Taiwan.” The pineapple industry bounced back when public support rallied domestic consumption, but “Taiwan’s lucrative grouper industry is bracing for heavy losses after China’s recent ban on imports of the fish from the island.”
Tags: China, Domestic consumption, Economic muscle, Fish, Flexing, Grouper, Import bans, Losses, Lucrative, Pineapples, Taiwan
