Wall Street Journal (May 13)
“Economist Burton Malkiel might have called the stock market ‘a random walk,’ but investors could at least use earnings guidance by companies as road signs. Now they are largely walking blind.” With on-again, off-again tariffs, “nobody knows what the economy will look like in a few months’ time.” Some companies are leaning heavily on assumptions. “Others, such as General Motors, PepsiCo and Procter & Gamble, have lowered targets, while Volkswagen excluded tariffs from its outlook. United Airlines, creatively, offered one scenario for a stable environment and another for a recession.” Other companies have simply thrown in the towel. “Ford, Jeep-owner Stellantis, Delta Air Lines, and UPS took another route, scrapping their 2025 guidance altogether.”
Tags: Assumptions, Blind, Delta Air Lines, Earnings guidance, Economist, Economy, Ford, GM, Investors, Malkiel, Outlook, PepsiCo, Procter & Gamble, Random walk, Recession, Scenario, Stable, Stellantis, Stock market, Targets, Tariffs, United Airlines, Volkswagen
New York Times (October 3)
“Markets are on edge about the risk of another oil shock. The price of crude has been relatively stable over the past year, apart from brief spikes.” Now, however, concern is focused on the potential “economic cost of a new war in the Middle East.” Estimates of the potential cost are wide-ranging and speculative, but “an escalation of fighting between Israel and Iran could cause oil prices to spike and send a chill through the global economy.”
Tags: Chill, Crude, Economic cost, Escalation, Fighting, Iran, Israel, Markets, Middle East, Oil prices, Oil shock, Risk, Speculative, Spikes, Stable, War
Investment Week (September 17)
“Fund managers and analysts have remained adamant that artificial intelligence is the core investment case driving the growth of the Magnificent Seven and other tech giants, but cracks have begun to show in their faith that this growth has stable longevity.”
Tags: Adamant, AI, Analysts, Core investment case, Cracks, Fund managers, Growth, Magnificent Seven, Stable, Tech giants
The Guardian (June 14)
“Decades of declining births mean there are no longer enough students to fill classrooms…. Taiwan is struggling to achieve the ‘replacement rate’ needed to maintain a stable population. That rate is 2.1 babies per woman, but Taiwan hasn’t hit that number since the mid-80s. In 2023, the rate was 0.865.”
Tags: Classrooms, Declining births, Population, Replacement rate, Stable, Struggling, Students, Taiwan
Insider (August 2)
“Fitch shocked the markets when it cut the US government’s credit score Tuesday at a time when the economy appears to be in a stable state.” The downgrade from AAA to AA+ has been widely criticized, “from top Biden administration officials to Wall Street,” with “market thinkers” labelling it “bizarre,” “puzzling,” “unwarranted,” “strange” “inept” and “ridiculous.”
Tags: AA+, AAA, Bizarre, Credit score, Criticized, Downgrade, Economy, Fitch, Inept, Markets, Puzzling, Shocked, Stable, Strange, U.S. Government, Unwarranted, Wall Street
Washington Post (March 21)
“The aim of setting the cap on Russian crude at $60, roughly 20 percent below the main international benchmark price, was to whittle away at Russia’s cash hoard while still providing it with sufficient incentive to maintain exports and keep global oil markets stable. It is now time to lower the Western cap further, in increments, to $40 per barrel or less.”
Tags: $40, $60, Aim, Barrel, Benchmark, Cap, Crude, Exports, Incentive, Oil markets, Russia, Stable, Sufficient, Western
Professional Pensions (April 19)
“The response by pension schemes and other investors to the invasion was immediate and, in the days following Russia’s attack, a number of pension schemes announced they would reduce or sell all their holdings as soon as possible.” Exposure to Russia varied by scheme, but was low overall, at around “0.1% for many schemes, holdings that many managers have written down to zero.” All in all, the “market reaction to the crisis was surprisingly muted,” with fairly stable funding levels throughout the crisis.
Tags: Attack, Crisis, Exposure, Funding, Holdings, Immediate, Invasion, Investors, Market, Muted, Pension schemes, Reaction, Reduce, Russia, Sell, Stable, Zero
Washington Post (January 10)
“As spending climbs and revenue falls, the coronavirus” is forcing “a global reckoning.” The resulting “debt tsunami” will threaten “even stable, peaceful middle-income countries.” Costa Rica is just one such country “scrambling to stave off a full-blown debt crisis, imposing emergency cuts and proposing harsher measures that touched off rare violent protests last fall.” The “progressive, eco-friendly nation is weighing desperate solutions — including open-pit gold mining, even oceanic fracking.”
Tags: Coronavirus, Costa Rica, Crisis, Cuts, Debt tsunami, Desperate, Eco-friendly, Global reckoning, Mining, Open-pit, Peaceful, Progressive, Protests, Revenue, Scrambling, Spending, Stable, Threaten, Violent
CNN (May 9)
“While Beijing has slowly become mindful of the monster it has unwittingly unleashed, it still believes that it can walk both these very thin lines—a North Korea that is weak but stable, and disruptive yet not explosive—in part because it must: China’s internal instability cannot withstand much in the way of external shocks, of which the leadership is well aware.”
Tags: Beijing, China, Disruptive, External shocks, Instability, Monster, North Korea, Stable, Weak
Mother Jones (July 12)
“One of the largest icebergs ever recorded broke off Antarctica’s Larsen C ice shelf…permanently altering the coastline of our planet’s frozen continent. Twice the size of Long Island and packing a trillion tons of ice—fully melted, that’s enough water to fill Lake Michigan—the newly birthed iceberg seems like a perfect symbol for our overheating world.” And yet, that is slightly misleading. Other than posing a shipping hazard, “as long as the parent ice shelf remains stable, A68 should have no measurable impact on the rest of the planet.”
Tags: A68, Antarctica, Hazard, Ice shelf, Iceberg, Largest, Larsen C, Melted, Overheating, Ships, Stable
