Washington Post (June 25)
“Governments around the world are scrambling for ways, often at great fiscal cost, to slow or even reverse their baby busts. From cash incentives to paid leave, the results have been disappointing.” They would do better to quit fighting and focus on adaptation. After 17 years of population decline, Japan “now offers a surprisingly hopeful counter that an aging economy can still offer growth and prosperity.” Recent analysis by Goldman Sachs found that in Japan “the demographic decline that once drained vitality is now creating a ‘virtuous cycle’ of tightening labor markets, increased worker bargaining power and more investment in productivity-enhancing tech. These trends are helping prop up the economy even as it weathers a shock from the U.S.-led trade war.”
Tags: Adaptation, Aging economy, Baby busts, Cash incentives, Cost, Demographic decline, Goldman Sachs, Governments, Growth, Investment, Labor markets, Paid leave, Population, Prosperity, Reverse, Scrambling, Tech, Virtuous cycle
Financial Times (February 27)
Although “some demographic experts had been hopeful of a pent-up baby boom in Japan following the pandemic,” 2024 confirmed the worst. “The number of babies born in Japan last year fell to the lowest level since records began 125 years ago as the country’s demographic crisis deepens and government efforts to reverse the decline continue to fail.” For nine years straight, “the decline in births has continued unabated…. Combined with a record 1.6mn deaths last year, the figures mean Japan’s population shrank by almost 900,000 people, net of immigration.”
Tags: 2024, Babies, Baby boom, Births, Deaths, Decline, Demographic crisis, Experts, Fail, Government, Immigration, Japan, Pandemic, Pent-up, Population, Record
The Economist (November 23)
Across Asia a surprising and unwelcome phenomenon is arising: middle-class stagnation. Over the past three years, for example, 6 million Indonesians fell “into the ‘aspiring middle class,’” and are now “a stone’s throw away from poverty.” The nation’s middle-class population share dropped “to 17% from 22% before the pandemic.” This “middle-class malaise” is not restricted to Indonesia and may “shake up everything from profits to politics” throughout Asia.
Tags: 17%, 6 million, Asia, Aspiring, Indonesians, Malaise, Middle class, Pandemic, Politics, Population, Poverty, Profits, Stagnation, Surprising, Unwelcome
The Guardian (June 14)
“Decades of declining births mean there are no longer enough students to fill classrooms…. Taiwan is struggling to achieve the ‘replacement rate’ needed to maintain a stable population. That rate is 2.1 babies per woman, but Taiwan hasn’t hit that number since the mid-80s. In 2023, the rate was 0.865.”
Tags: Classrooms, Declining births, Population, Replacement rate, Stable, Struggling, Students, Taiwan
Reuters (June 4)
“India may no longer be Narendra Modi’s” and any coalition government he can form will likely end “a decade of extraordinary stability.” While the elite have cheered Modi’s economic reforms, “India’s world-beating GDP growth is not trickling down to the masses fast enough: after a decade of Modi, most of the population are still poor enough to qualify for the government’s free food scheme.” In addition to income disparity, “many Indians feared his authoritarian streak and potential far-reaching changes to the secular constitution.”
Tags: Authoritarian streak, Coalition government, Economic reforms, Elite, Free food, GDP growth, Income disparity, India, Modi, Poor, Population, Secular constitution, Stability
The Guardian (May 1)
“As the declining population continues to impact Japan’s society and economy, the number of vacant houses has topped nine million – enough to accommodate the entire population of Australia at three people per dwelling.”
Tags: Accommodate, Australia, Declining, Dwelling, Economy, Impact, Japan, Population, Society, Vacant houses
Newsweek (March 9)
“America’s teenage population is expected to shrink in the coming decade, whilst the number of people aged 70 or over expands by 14.5 million” as the 70 or over senior population is expected “to boom from 40.8 million to 55.3 million by 2033.” In the two decades since 1971, the U.S. fertility rate fell by 27%. The average woman now bears only 1.66 children, down from 2.26 fifty years ago.
Tags: 1.66 children, 2033, 70 or over, Boom, Fertility rate, Population, Seniors, Shrink, Teenage, U.S., Woman
Time (March 1)
“Until the 1970s, women in the most prosperous Asian economies like South Korea, Japan, and China were having more than five children on average. Today, that trend is starkly different.” And not just in Asia. Globally, “fertility rates have decreased worldwide” for seven decades. “Even in the most advanced economies, the rate is now 1.6 children per couple, compared to the recommended rate of 2.1 for countries wanting to keep a steady population without any migration.”
Tags: 1970s, Advanced economies, Asia, Asia. Fertility rates, Children, China, Japan, Migration, Population, Prosperous, South Korea, Steady, Women
Wall Street Journal (January 17)
“China last year ceded its centuries-old position as the world’s most populous country to India.” Births in 2023 fell by over half a million, “to just over 9 million in total, accelerating the decline in the country’s population as women shrugged off the government’s exhortations to reproduce.”
Tags: 2023, Accelerating, Births, Ceded, China, Decline, Exhortations, Government, India, Population, Populous, Shrugged, Women
Reuters (September 23)
“China’s population of 1.4 billion would not be enough to fill all the empty apartments littered across the country,” according to a former official “in a rare public critique of the country’s crisis-hit property market.” Official data shows approximately 7.2 million homes, but that excludes “the numerous residential projects that have already been sold but not yet completed” and speculatively purchased homes that remain vacant. Estimates vary, but “He Keng, a former deputy head of the statistics bureau,” estimates there aren’t enough people to fill China’s available housing inventory.
Tags: 1.4 billion, Apartments, China, Completed, Crisis-hit, Empty, Keng, Official data, Population, Property market, Residential projects, Sold, Speculative, Statistics bureau
