New York Times (October 26)
Under Donald Trump, a “casino… now passes for the American economy.” Distinguished by froth, Trump’s “casino economy” is “built on speculation and risk. Across markets and policy, wagers on the future are being made with other people’s money at a cost that could prove catastrophic.” While it’s true that “economies run on risk, growth and ambition…. There’s risk, and then there’s reckless gambling.”
Tags: Ambition, Casino, Casino economy, Catastrophic, Cost, Froth, Future, Gambling, Growth, Money, Reckless, Risk, Speculation, Trump, U.S.
Reuters (October 22)
“Sanae Takaichi wants to spend a lot of money on Japan, but she also needs to sort out some hefty financial obligations to the United States.” She is coming under immediate “pressure to secure backing for $550 billion her predecessor Shigeru Ishiba pledged to invest in U.S. projects as part of his tariff deal with the White House.” Given the new Prime Minister’s “desire to use fiscal spending to boost growth, she’s likely to lean on” private, rather than public, funding “to avoid immediate budgetary constraints.”
Tags: $550 billion, Financial obligations, Fiscal spending, Funding, Growth, Invest, Ishiba, Japan, Money, Pressure, Prime minister, Private, Public, Takaichi, Tariff deal, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (September 26)
“Walmart executives aren’t sugarcoating the message: Artificial intelligence will wipe out jobs and reshape its workforce.” They are not alone. “Companies including Ford, JPMorgan Chase and Amazon have bluntly predicted job losses associated with AI.” For the next three years at Walmart, head count is “expected to stay flat… despite growth plans, as AI eliminates or transforms roles.” Beyond that time frame, the outlook “remains murky” for the specifics of its labor force composition, but it will definitely be leaner.
Tags: AI, Amazon, Companies, Eliminates, Executives, Ford, Growth, Head count, Job losses, JPMorgan Chase, Murky, Reshape, Sugarcoating, Transforms, Walmart, Workforce
Wall Street Journal (September 17)
“Industrial production in the eurozone returned to growth in July, a reflection of resilience as U.S. tariffs threaten to crimp demand.” Monthly “output edged up 0.3%… after a 0.6% slump in June.” The July “increase was driven by a strong 1.5% upswing in production in Germany.” While the tariff threat remains, “the eurozone’s industry has so far proved relatively resilient, having grown in two of the four months since President Trump’s announcement of levies on global trading partners in early April.”
Tags: 0.3%, Demand, eurozone, Germany, Growth, Industrial production, July, Levies, Resilience, Threat, Trading partners, Trump, U.S. tariffs, Upswing
South China Morning Post (August 29)
According to Nomura Holdings, “the ongoing rally in Chinese stocks will do little to boost growth in the mainland’s economy, as equity investments account for a small portion of total household assets.” Only 1.3% of total household assets are in equities. In contrast, Chinese households have about 60% “of their wealth in the struggling property market.”
Tags: China, Economy, Equity, Growth, Household assets, Investments, Nomura, Property market, Rally, Stocks, Struggling, Wealth
USA Today (August 16)
“President Donald Trump’s aggressive economic policies will likely significantly slow U.S. growth and push up inflation but stop short of causing a recession or “stagflation” – the dire scenarios that forecasters envisioned before he took office.” Economist Justin Begley of Moody’s Analytics believes the U.S. is edging toward stagflation, but will not end up there. Much will depend on the Fed which “faces a dilemma because lowering rates to bolster a softening labor market could further drive up inflation.”
Tags: Begley, Dilemma, Economic policies, Economist, Fed, Growth, Inflation, Labor market, Moody’s Analytics, Rates, Recession, Stagflation, Stagflation. Dire, Trump, U.S.
Reuters (July 22)
“China’s hardened rhetoric against price wars among producers is raising expectations Beijing may be about to kick off industrial capacity cuts in a long-awaited, but challenging, campaign against deflation that carries risks to economic growth.” Such a campaign would “echo” similar successful “reforms a decade ago to reduce the production of steel, cement, glass and coal, which were crucial to ending a period of 54 consecutive months of falling factory gate prices.” Success may prove elusive this round. “The fight against deflation will be much more complicated and poses risks to employment and growth” while U.S. trade war ”is intensifying price wars, squeezing factory profits.”
Tags: Beijing, Cement, China, Coal, Complicated, Deflation, Economic growth, Employment, Expectations, Glass, Growth, Industrial capacity, Price wars, Producers, Rhetoric, Risks, Steel, Trade war, U.S.
Market Watch (July 14)
In contrast with previous guidance, Goldman Sachs now expects U.S. home prices to grow only 0.5% in 2025 and 1.2% the following year, “a huge drop from the growth the market saw during the pandemic.” Goldman cited “three big reasons for its pessimism regarding home prices: slowing prices, rising housing supply and persistently high mortgage rates.”
Tags: 0.5%, 2025, Drop, Goldman Sachs, Growth, Guidance, Home prices, Housing supply, Market, Pandemic, Pessimism, Slowing, U.S.
The Economist (July 11)
“Growth is abysmal; wages are low. But seen from the outside, Britain is a great place to contract services and buy bargain-basement bonds.”
Tags: Abysmal, Bargain-basement, Bonds, Britain, Buy, Contract services, Growth, Low, Wages
Washington Post (June 25)
“Governments around the world are scrambling for ways, often at great fiscal cost, to slow or even reverse their baby busts. From cash incentives to paid leave, the results have been disappointing.” They would do better to quit fighting and focus on adaptation. After 17 years of population decline, Japan “now offers a surprisingly hopeful counter that an aging economy can still offer growth and prosperity.” Recent analysis by Goldman Sachs found that in Japan “the demographic decline that once drained vitality is now creating a ‘virtuous cycle’ of tightening labor markets, increased worker bargaining power and more investment in productivity-enhancing tech. These trends are helping prop up the economy even as it weathers a shock from the U.S.-led trade war.”
Tags: Adaptation, Aging economy, Baby busts, Cash incentives, Cost, Demographic decline, Goldman Sachs, Governments, Growth, Investment, Labor markets, Paid leave, Population, Prosperity, Reverse, Scrambling, Tech, Virtuous cycle
