Investment Week (September 17)
“Fund managers and analysts have remained adamant that artificial intelligence is the core investment case driving the growth of the Magnificent Seven and other tech giants, but cracks have begun to show in their faith that this growth has stable longevity.”
Tags: Adamant, AI, Analysts, Core investment case, Cracks, Fund managers, Growth, Magnificent Seven, Stable, Tech giants
World Bank (September 3)
“India remained the fastest-growing major economy and grew at a rapid clip of 8.2 percent in FY23/24…. Amid challenging external conditions, the World Bank expects India’s medium-term outlook to remain positive. Growth is forecast to reach 7 percent in FY24/25 and remain strong in FY25/26 and FY26/27.”
Tags: 8.2%, External conditions, Fastest-growing, Forecast, FY23/24, Growth, India, Major economy, Outlook, Positive, Rapid clip, World Bank
Wall Street Journal (August 26)
In the “latest retreat by U.S. companies,” IBM is shuttering its R&D operations in China. “Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China have led many multinational companies to reassess their business in China.” IBM once viewed “China as a major growth market,” but its market share has plummeted. Revenue dropped nearly 20% last year when “Beijing pushed Chinese buyers to purchase more from domestic technology suppliers, in a campaign dubbed ‘Delete America.’”
Tags: China, Companies, Geopolitical tensions, Growth, IBM, Market share, Multinational, R&D, Reassess, Retreat, Revenue, Shuttering, Suppliers, Technology, U.S.
Financial Times (May 27)
“What industry could replace” real estate “as the main driver of growth in China?” The automobile industry may look promising, but it’s a mere fraction of the size and creates other problems. China’s massive manufacturing sector already “exceeds domestic demand and expanding exports would encounter more trade friction with other countries.” Education and healthcare, on the other hand, have received insufficient spending. These areas would present the market with business opportunities and bring “substantial potential for growth” to the Chinese economy.
Tags: Automobile, China, Demand, Domestic, Education, Exports, Growth, Healthcare, Industry, Manufacturing, Real estate, Sector, Trade friction
WARC (May 24)
“Social media is now the largest channel worldwide by ad investment, having seized the crown from paid search…. Global social media ad spend is forecast to total $247.3bn in 2024, up 14.3% year on year, a slight deceleration from +16.0% in 2023. The growth is more pronounced in Western markets: growth across five leading Chinese social platforms (Duoyin, Weixin/QQ, Kuaishou, Weibo and Zhihu) analysed by WARC is set to reach only 4.6% next year.”
Tags: $247.3bn, 2024, Ad, Channel, Duoyin, Growth, Investment, Kuaishou, Paid search, Social media, Spend, Weibo, Weixin/QQ, Western market, Worldwide, Zhihu
Financial Times (May 10)
“The UK economy has exited last year’s technical recession with faster than expected growth of 0.6 per cent for the first quarter.” This beat the BoE forecast and marked the fastest quarter-on-quarter growth since 2021. Growth was “driven by a 0.7 per cent increase in services output, suggesting stronger consumer activity as inflation fell. Manufacturing output grew 1.4 per cent, driven by car production which has grown for six consecutive quarters.”
Tags: 0.6%, 2021, BOE, Car production, Consumer activity, Economy, Expected, Fastest, Forecast, Growth, Inflation, Manufacturing, Q1, Services, Technical recession, UK
Foreign Policy (March 11)
Some question China’s 5.2% GDP growth figure for the final quarter of 2023, but even assuming “the figures are accurate, the wider trends of the Chinese economy suggest a worrying state of affairs.” China’s real GDP figure exceeded its nominal figure. This “indicates that Beijing’s gross value of output in real terms was amplified thanks to negative inflation…. If not for deflation, China’s real GDP growth in 2023 would have been even lower and would have certainly missed the national target of 5 percent.”
Tags: 2023, Accurate, China, Deflation, Economy, GDP, Gross value, Growth, Negative inflation, Nominal, Output, Real GDP, Trends, Worrying
Wall Street Journal (March 5)
“It is the end of the Chinese growth miracle as we know it, and Chinese leader Xi Jinping seems fine with that. The question now is whether he can steer the country onto a new course— and keep the rest of China on board.”
Financial Times (February 15)
“As OpenAI enters its year of rapid growth, questions about the long-term viability of its business model remain.” Despite such grandiose goals as accelerating “global productivity and economic growth,” corporations are struggling “to figure out how to integrate generative AI into their processes, or estimate what kinds of cost and productivity benefits it might bring.”
Tags: Benefits, Business model, Corporations, Cost, Economic growth, Generative AI, Global productivity, Grandiose, Growth, OpenAI, Processes, Struggling, Viability
The Economist (February 10)
“This year investors in Chinese stocks have been on a hair-raising ride. Even as America’s S&P 500 index reached record highs, markets in China and Hong Kong shed $1.5trn in January alone…. The decline signals a fundamental problem. Investors abroad and at home once saw China’s government as a dependable steward of the economy. Now this trust has seeped away, with severe consequences for China’s growth.”
Tags: $1.5trn, China, Consequences, Decline, Dependable, Economy, Government, Growth, Hair raising, Hong Kong, Investors, Markets, S&P 500, Steward, Stocks, Trust
