Barron’s (December 23)
Brazil ends 2024 in a paradox. The economy is strong with GDP expected to “reach 3% for the third year running. Unemployment is at a record low and the trade surplus at an all-time high.” Nevertheless, “markets are awful.” Investors appear to be “looking past the healthy present to a recurrence of Brazil’s chronic economic disease: excessive government spending that spurs runaway inflation and crowds out growth with debt payments.”
Tags: 2024, Brazil, Chronic, Debt payments, Economy, GDP, Government spending, Growth, Investors, Markets, Paradox, Recurrence, Runaway inflation, Trade surplus, Unemployment
Trader’s Magazine (December 2)
“Assets of the top 100 asset owners globally have returned to growth in 2023 after a fall of 8.7% in 2022.” Achieving a brisk 12.3% increase in 2023, “the world’s largest 100 asset owners (the ‘AO100’) now hold a record US$26.3 trillion.” Chief among them is the “Government Pension Investment Fund of Japan…with an AUM of US$1.59 trillion.” The top three also includes the two largest sovereign wealth funds. Norway’s Norges Bank Investment Management in second place with AUM of US$1.55 trillion while China Investment Corporation is now third globally with US$1.24 trillion.”
Tags: 12.3%, 2023, Assets, AUM, China, Government Pension Investment Fund, Growth, Japan, Norway, Record, Top 100, US$26.3 trillion
WARC (November 19)
“More shoppers, GMV growth and the growing role of AI was the Singles Day story from Alibaba and JD.com, but the wider economy continues to feel the impact of China’s property slowdown.”
Tags: AI, Alibaba, China, Economy, GMV, Growth, Impact, JD.com, Property, Shoppers, Singles Day, Slowdown
The Economist (November 6)
“The return of Trumponomics excites markets but frightens the world. It may bring stronger growth, higher inflation and a global trade war.”
Tags: Excites, Frightens, Global trade war, Growth, Inflation, Markets, Return, Trumponomics, World
Investment Week (September 17)
“Fund managers and analysts have remained adamant that artificial intelligence is the core investment case driving the growth of the Magnificent Seven and other tech giants, but cracks have begun to show in their faith that this growth has stable longevity.”
Tags: Adamant, AI, Analysts, Core investment case, Cracks, Fund managers, Growth, Magnificent Seven, Stable, Tech giants
World Bank (September 3)
“India remained the fastest-growing major economy and grew at a rapid clip of 8.2 percent in FY23/24…. Amid challenging external conditions, the World Bank expects India’s medium-term outlook to remain positive. Growth is forecast to reach 7 percent in FY24/25 and remain strong in FY25/26 and FY26/27.”
Tags: 8.2%, External conditions, Fastest-growing, Forecast, FY23/24, Growth, India, Major economy, Outlook, Positive, Rapid clip, World Bank
Wall Street Journal (August 26)
In the “latest retreat by U.S. companies,” IBM is shuttering its R&D operations in China. “Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China have led many multinational companies to reassess their business in China.” IBM once viewed “China as a major growth market,” but its market share has plummeted. Revenue dropped nearly 20% last year when “Beijing pushed Chinese buyers to purchase more from domestic technology suppliers, in a campaign dubbed ‘Delete America.’”
Tags: China, Companies, Geopolitical tensions, Growth, IBM, Market share, Multinational, R&D, Reassess, Retreat, Revenue, Shuttering, Suppliers, Technology, U.S.
Financial Times (May 27)
“What industry could replace” real estate “as the main driver of growth in China?” The automobile industry may look promising, but it’s a mere fraction of the size and creates other problems. China’s massive manufacturing sector already “exceeds domestic demand and expanding exports would encounter more trade friction with other countries.” Education and healthcare, on the other hand, have received insufficient spending. These areas would present the market with business opportunities and bring “substantial potential for growth” to the Chinese economy.
Tags: Automobile, China, Demand, Domestic, Education, Exports, Growth, Healthcare, Industry, Manufacturing, Real estate, Sector, Trade friction
WARC (May 24)
“Social media is now the largest channel worldwide by ad investment, having seized the crown from paid search…. Global social media ad spend is forecast to total $247.3bn in 2024, up 14.3% year on year, a slight deceleration from +16.0% in 2023. The growth is more pronounced in Western markets: growth across five leading Chinese social platforms (Duoyin, Weixin/QQ, Kuaishou, Weibo and Zhihu) analysed by WARC is set to reach only 4.6% next year.”
Tags: $247.3bn, 2024, Ad, Channel, Duoyin, Growth, Investment, Kuaishou, Paid search, Social media, Spend, Weibo, Weixin/QQ, Western market, Worldwide, Zhihu
Financial Times (May 10)
“The UK economy has exited last year’s technical recession with faster than expected growth of 0.6 per cent for the first quarter.” This beat the BoE forecast and marked the fastest quarter-on-quarter growth since 2021. Growth was “driven by a 0.7 per cent increase in services output, suggesting stronger consumer activity as inflation fell. Manufacturing output grew 1.4 per cent, driven by car production which has grown for six consecutive quarters.”
Tags: 0.6%, 2021, BOE, Car production, Consumer activity, Economy, Expected, Fastest, Forecast, Growth, Inflation, Manufacturing, Q1, Services, Technical recession, UK
