Washington Post (March 9)
European leaders may “attest to a continent fully awakened to the reality of the war. But the truth is that Europe has not taken its defense seriously before now, and it cannot be strategically ‘autonomous’ until it does.” Home to 450 million people with a $17 trillion GDP, defense spending in excess of $200 billion annually, the EU needs to get its act together. “A strong, autonomous Europe benefits the United States as much as it does Europe itself: Partners working in tandem present a more formidable front against any military threat.”
Tags: $17 trillion, Autonomous, Awakened, Defense, Europe, GDP, Leaders, Partners, Reality, Spending, Strategic, U.S., War
Wall Street Journal (November 25)
“China’s zero-Covid reckoning” is approaching as “record infections and new lockdowns lead to rising public frustration and slower economic growth.” China’s economy is expected to slow further, “with growth estimates falling for the fourth quarter and the year below 3%. That’s assuming Chinese officials aren’t gilding the books. China’s official GDP target for this year had been 5.5%.”
Tags: China, Economy, GDP, Infections, Lockdowns, Public frustration, Q4, Reckoning, Record, Slower economic growth, Zero COVID
Investment Week (October 12)
Aside from shipping difficulties and “maritime headwinds” hitting China, “the property crisis, fuelled by debt defaults from property developers, has dented the likelihood of Chinese GDP hitting growth targets as local authority revenue takes a hit from land sale income decline. Sentiment has followed suit and many wonder when and where respite will arise.”
Tags: China, Debt defaults, Decline, GDP, Growth targets, Headwinds, Income, Land sale, Maritime, Property crisis, Property developers, Revenue, Sentiment, Shipping
The Economist (May 28)
Signs suggest “America’s markets are entering a new, more worrying phase.” Falling share prices could initially be attributed to the Federal Reserve’s policy moves, but “in recent weeks share prices have kept falling, even as bond yields have dropped back,” a combination suggesting recession. “Indeed, the mix of Fed tightening, slowing gdp and rising production costs has the ominous feel of the later stages of a business cycle. The expansion is barely two years old. Yet investors are already worried that corporate profits are under threat.”
Tags: Bond yields, Business cycle, Expansion, Falling, Fed, GDP, Investors, Markets, Ominous, Production costs, Profits, Recession, Share prices, Signs, Tightening, U.S., Worried, Worrying
Wall Street Journal (May 5)
“With China now an economic and military powerhouse, Taiwan’s lack of preparedness is increasingly dangerous. Taiwan’s economy is two-thirds larger than Israel’s, but Taiwan spends almost two-thirds less as a percentage of gross domestic product on defense.” Especially in light of Ukraine’s invasion, this has to change and just an extra percent of military spending could prove decisive. “Through the force-multiplying miracle of modern weapons, we can help make Taiwan a porcupine and deter aggression that could have profoundly negative consequences for Taiwan, China and the world.”
Tags: Aggression, China, Dangerous, Economic, GDP, Invasion, Israel, Military spending, Porcupine, Powerhouse, Preparedness, Taiwan, Ukraine, Weapons
Reuters (April 28)
“An annualized 1.4% fall in U.S. GDP in the first quarter sounds pretty grim. But the U.S. economy may be taking one step backwards to take two forward.”
CNN Business (April 17)
“Nearly 400 million people across 45 cities in China are under full or partial lockdown as part of China’s strict zero-Covid policy.” Collectively, they contribute $7.2 trillion, nearly 40%, of China’s GDP. “Analysts are ringing warning bells, but say investors aren’t properly assessing how serious the global economic fallout might be from these prolonged isolation orders.”
Tags: $7.2 trillion, 400 million, 45 cities, Analysts, China, Economic fallout, GDP, Global, Investors, Isolation, Lockdown, Strict, Warning bells, Zero-Covid policy
Seeking Alpha (January 17)
America has become “an attractive sponge to absorb capital from everywhere. As a result, the US stock market capitalization currently represents 61% of the global stock market capitalization, despite the fact that US GDP is only 23% of global GDP.” US equities also “now represent about 200% of US GDP, which is an all-time high.”
Tags: Absorb, Attractive, Capital, Capitalization, Equities, GDP, Global, Sponge, Stock market, U.S.
McKinsey Global Institute (November 15)
Since 2000, net worth has tripled “to $510 trillion, or 6.1 times global GDP, with China accounting for one-third of global growth.” The increase “mainly reflects valuation gains in real assets, especially real estate, rather than investment in productive assets that drive our economies.” Remarkably, the “historic link between the growth of net worth and the growth of GDP no longer holds.”
Tags: $510 trillion, 2000, China, Economies, GDP, Global growth, Investment, Net worth, Productive assets, Real assets, Real estate, Valuation gains
BBC (October 27)
“The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse in the long run compared to the coronavirus pandemic.” According to Richard Hughes, the chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility, “leaving the EU will reduce the UK’s potential GDP by about 4% in the long term” while the impact of the pandemic is forecast as a 2% contraction of GDP.
