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The Economist (February 8)

2020/ 02/ 10 by jd in Global News

Production of masks, “sadly, is one of the few economic ventures that is still expanding in this thrice-struck city.” Hong Kong’s “GDP shrank last year for the first time in a decade, thanks to the trade war and anti-government protests. The coronavirus now poses a third threat. Some economists have slashed their growth forecasts for Hong Kong by more than for the mainland.”

 

Wall Street Journal (November 1)

2019/ 11/ 03 by jd in Global News

In the U.S., “GDP growth accelerated to 3% for a time along with investment, but then came Mr. Trump’s trade interventions. More than the damage from tariffs, business confidence fell amid the uncertainty of what Mr. Trump might do next. This has led to slower growth that is reflected in roughly 2% GDP growth in the last two quarters…. The strong evidence is that trade policy is the main growth culprit.”

 

Reuters (September 5)

2019/ 09/ 06 by jd in Global News

“The most likely outcome is now that GDP growth will come in below 2.5%, perhaps significantly lower, the worst since the recession of 2008/09. By implication, oil consumption growth is likely to slip below 1% and 1 million bpd, in line with BP’s latest forecast,” but well short of the last two decade’s 1.5% average annual growth rate. “Until the global economy recovers momentum, oil consumption growth is likely to remain well below trend, keeping prices under pressure.”

 

The Economist (May 18)

2019/ 05/ 19 by jd in Global News

“America’s net public debt is high, if not yet huge” and unless something changes “public debt will rise to 92% of GDP in 2029… and go on rising for decades.” This may not matter so much. “Though debt has grown as a share of GDP, interest payments are near their historical average” and “lower than the nominal growth rate of the economy…. In such circumstances a debt will shrink as a share of GDP over time. If the economy grows faster than interest builds up, the government could run a small deficit forever.”

 

The Guardian (February 12)

2019/ 02/ 14 by jd in Global News

“GDP growth slipped to its lowest since 2012, at 1.4%, down from 1.8% in 2017.” The UK’s dismal performance in 2018 gave the lie to “Philip Hammond’s claim that Britain can reap an economic dividend from Theresa May’s Brexit deal…as official figures confirmed the UK has suffered its worst year for GDP growth since 2012.”

 

New York Times (February 3)

2019/ 02/ 05 by jd in Global News

In recent decades, per capita GDP has doubled in the U.S., but “the bulk of the bounty has flowed to the very rich. The middle class has received relative crumbs. If middle-class pay had increased as fast as the economic growth, the average middle-class family would today earn about $15,000 a year more than it does, after taxes and benefits.”

 

The Economist (October 27)

2018/ 10/ 29 by jd in Global News

“Blind adherence to ESG criteria… could skew capital flows towards the most privileged parts of the world. That would make it harder for poorer economies to escape poverty—a failure that could, in turn, inhibit their progress on green, governance and social-justice matters.” For this reason, Charlie Robertson and others are arguing that “ethical investors should instead adopt a kind of economic relativism, judging countries relative to their GDP per person.”

 

The Economist (September 15)

2018/ 09/ 17 by jd in Global News

“Debt stalks Africa once again. Over the past six years sub-Saharan governments have issued $81bn in dollar bonds to investors hungry for yield. Piled on top of this are murkier syndicated loans and bilateral debts, many to China and tied to big construction projects. Public debt has climbed above 50% of GDP in half the countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The risk of a crisis is growing.”

 

Institutional Investors (June 11)

2018/ 06/ 13 by jd in Global News

“When the U.K. secedes from the EU, it will abandon 70 years of globalization. It will turn away from a world order that increasingly relies on supranational institutions to check the power of extremely wealthy individuals and corporations like Apple and Facebook, with market capitalizations far bigger than the GDPs of most nations.” The potential consequences of Brexit leave many in the City of London feeling threatened, but there is “a coterie of hard-right, wealthy businessmen” who are delighted about “rolling back globalization to protect their positions of power — all in the name of populism.”

 

The Guardian (March 19)

2018/ 03/ 21 by jd in Global News

“As the disastrous impact of leaving the EU becomes clearer, UK citizens should be allowed another say.” Some forecasts estimate that it will take “at least 20 years before the UK economy stabilises after Brexit.” And the London School of Economics “found that all EU countries will lose income after Brexit. The overall GDP fall in the UK is estimated at between £26bn and £55bn, depending on the negotiated settlement. In the most pessimistic scenario, the cost of Brexit could be as high as £6,400 for each household.”

 

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