euronews (August 12)
OPEC and the IEA, “two of the most influential voices in energy markets” released “opposing readings” for 2026, but more harmonious forecasts for 2027. “The IEA now expects the world to burn less oil in 2026 than it did in 2025,” predicting global oil demand will “fall by 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026.” In contrast, “OPEC still expects demand to grow” by 580,000 b/d. Both are, however, bullish on 2027 demand. “OPEC now expects demand to grow by 2.2 mb/d in 2027… while the IEA goes further still at 2.4 mb/d.” Interestingly, “the gloomier forecaster for this year delivers a more bullish read for the next.”
Tags: 2026, 2027, Bullish, Demand, Energy markets, Fall, Forecasts, Grow, Harmonious, IEA, Influential, Oil, OPEC
Bloomberg (July 6)
“Donald Trump’s war against Iran may be over, but the repercussions for global monetary policy are here to stay.” In particular, “the path for central bank interest rates around the world has now shifted higher for years to come.” Forecasts for borrowing costs calculated by Bloomberg Economics (BE) “show trajectories elevated by as much as half a percentage point or more through 2028 compared with those envisaged before the war. That’s both on BE’s global gauge for rates, and its measure for advanced economies.”
Tags: 2028, Bloomberg Economics, Borrowing costs, Central bank, Elevated, Forecasts, Global, Higher, Interest rates, Iran, Monetary policy, Repercussions, Trump, War
Bloomberg (May 21)
“The euro area will slow markedly while suffering the fastest inflation since 2023 as it succumbs to the energy-cost surge from the Iran war.” The European Commission issued new EU forecasts predicting that “output will rise 0.9% this year, notably below the 1.4% expansion last year, and 0.3 percentage points lower than expected in November. For 2027, it revised its outlook down to 1.2%.”
Tags: 2023, 2027, Energy-cost surge, EU, European Commission issued, Forecasts, Inflation, Iran war, Markedly, Output, Slow, Succumbs, Suffering
Barron’s (April 5)
The global economy is in for a “crude awakening.” Even under the best (or least worst) scenario, the Iran “war will shave about a percentage point off global economic growth, taking it down to 2% this year. Growth forecasts for large, developed economies—Japan, France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom—were modest before the war at around 1%. If the conflict extends past June, GDP growth for these countries could evaporate, while inflation keeps rising.”
Tags: 2%, Conflict, Crude awakening, Developed economies, Economic growth, Forecasts, France, GDP, Germany, Global economy, Inflation, Iran war, Italy, Japan, Scenario, UK
Fortune (August 27)
“Investors are underestimating the inflation risk of President Trump’s tariffs, which will push up import costs,” concludes analyst Henry Allen of Deutsche Bank. “One indicator forecasts that U.S. inflation may soon exceed 4%. Consumers are also expecting higher prices. But the inflation swaps market has yet to reflect these risks.”
Tags: 4%, Allen, Analyst, Consumers, Deutsche Bank, Forecasts, Higher prices, Import costs, Indicator, Inflation, Investors, Risk, Trump’s tariffs, U.S., Underestimating
Barron’s (April 13)
“Wall Street chief executives’ cautious-to-downbeat remarks about the economy on Friday stood in contrast with their firms’ first-quarter showings and their outlooks for the rest of the year. JPMorgan Chase +4.00%, Wells Fargo -0.95%, and Morgan Stanley +1.44% reported solid earnings results, while BlackRock +2.33% posted another quarter of record assets.” Investors who were “expecting market-sensitive firms to dial down their earnings forecasts” instead found the firms “left their outlooks largely unchanged.” This could, however, just ”mean revisions are in store for later in 2025.”
Tags: Assets, BlackRock, Cautious, Chief executives, Downbeat, Earnings results, Economy, Forecasts, Investors, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Outlooks, Q1, Remarks, Wall Street, Wells Fargo
Financial Times (February 7)
The Bank of England (BoE) “has halved its 2025 growth estimate and cut interest rates… as it contends with a stagnant UK economy and an increasingly uncertain international environment.” In November, the BoE expected annual economic growth of 1.5%. Now it expects growth of just 0.75%, with higher unemployment and rising inflation. The new forecasts “will stoke fears of stagflation” and the Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to cut benchmark rates from 4.75% to 4.5%.
Tags: 2025, Benchmark, BOE, Economic growth, Environment, Forecasts, Halved, Inflation, Interest rates, MPC, Stagflation, Stagnant, UK, Uncertain, Unemployment
Barron’s (January 3)
“Of all the fearless forecasts put out there for the new year, one conspicuously missing from those lists is probably the easiest one: The United States of America will lose its last remaining triple-A credit rating.” Standard & Poor’s was the first to lower its rating on U.S. government debt in 2011. In 2023, “Fitch Ratings followed suit.” That November, Moody’s Investors Service “lowered its outlook to negative.” It seems inevitable, especially given Trump’s desire for tax cuts, that Moody’s will eventually lower its Aaa rating as well. “Given the lack of serious measures, so far, to slow the government debt growth, the U.S.A. doesn’t merit a triple-A rating.”
Tags: 2011, 2023, Credit rating, Fearless, Fitch, Forecasts, Government debt, Inevitable, Lower, Merit, Moody's, Negative, Outlook, Rating, S&P, Tax cuts, Triple-A, Trump, U.S.
Institutional Investor (December 16)
“A cross examination of forecasts from asset managers shows that artificial intelligence will be front and center for investors…. Putting geopolitics and economic forecasting to one side for a second,” AI is the “one thematic priority that sticks out.” Artificial intelligence is “being touted as a structural game changer for all industries the likes of which we haven’t seen since the invention of the internet, massively improving efficiency and productivity for those that are able to effectively harness it.”
Tags: AI, Asset managers, Cross examination, Economic forecasting, Efficiency, Forecasts, Game changer, Geopolitics, Internet, Investors, Productivity
Bloomberg (August 27)
“Wall Street is beginning to sour on the outlook for crude next year, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley lowering price forecasts as global supplies increase, including potentially from OPEC+.” Both banks “now foresee global benchmark Brent averaging less than $80” and expect “prices trending lower over the 12 months.”
Tags: Benchmark, Brent, Crude, Forecasts, Global supplies, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, OPEC, Outlook, Sour, Wall Street
