Fortune (August 27)
“Investors are underestimating the inflation risk of President Trump’s tariffs, which will push up import costs,” concludes analyst Henry Allen of Deutsche Bank. “One indicator forecasts that U.S. inflation may soon exceed 4%. Consumers are also expecting higher prices. But the inflation swaps market has yet to reflect these risks.”
Tags: 4%, Allen, Analyst, Consumers, Deutsche Bank, Forecasts, Higher prices, Import costs, Indicator, Inflation, Investors, Risk, Trump’s tariffs, U.S., Underestimating
Wall Street Journal (June 20)
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell “offered nothing to hint at a July rate reduction, and investors eyed September as the earliest possible resumption of rate cuts paused earlier this year. With most relevant data still to come, it made little sense for the Fed chair to commit to a specific course of action.” The Fed is waiting to see “the aftereffects” of Trump’s tariffs. “Most economists expect tariffs to lift prices over the coming months, and that is a worry for the Fed because officials still don’t feel as if they completely vanquished inflation after a three-year-long fight.”
Tags: Aftereffects, Data, Economists, Fed, Inflation, Investors, Powell, Prices, Rate cuts, September, Trump’s tariffs, Waiting
New York Times (June 18)
“China is unleashing a new export shock on the world.” Chinese goods, thwarted by Trump’s tariffs, are now “flooding countries from Southeast Asia to Europe to Latin America.” China does not seem to be following “the traditional trajectory of economies that move away from low-end manufacturing as they become more mature and developed.” Instead, it has doubled-down on manufacturing, which far exceeds domestic demand. As a result, the “countries that have borne the brunt of the jump in Chinese imports have also seen sharp declines in their own manufacturing, leading to job losses and bankruptcies.”
Tags: Bankruptcies, China, Chinese goods, Domestic demand, Doubled-down, Europe, Export shock, Flooding, Imports, Job losses, Latin America, Low-end manufacturing, Southeast Asia, Trajectory, Trump’s tariffs, Unleashing
New York Times (May 29)
Companies initially “welcomed a court decision striking down President Trump’s tariffs. Then a stay of that ruling left no one breathing easy.” Uncertainty, with a splash of potential relief, now prevails as U.S. businesses struggle to digest “the latest twist in Mr. Trump’s roller-coaster trade war, which has made it impossible to plan more than a few weeks in advance. It’s particularly hard on industries that place their orders entire seasons ahead of time.”
Tags: Businesses, Companies, Court decision, Impossible, Industries, Orders, Relief, Roller coaster, Ruling, Stay, Striking down, Struggle, Trade war, Trump’s tariffs, U.S.
Bloomberg (April 5)
“The plunge in oil prices over the past two days following the twin shocks of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the surprise boost in production from OPEC+ has altered the global energy landscape with stunning speed.” The market is frantically “tossing aside expectations for 2025” as Brent crude “tumbled 13% through Thursday and Friday to just over $66 a barrel, casting new doubts on Trump’s quest to aggressively boost US fossil fuel output and achieve ‘energy dominance.’”
Tags: $66, 2025, Altered, Brent, Doubts, Energy landscape, Expectations, Fossil fuel, Market, Oil prices, OPEC, Output, Plunge, Production, Stunning, Surprise, Trump’s tariffs, Tumbled, Twin shocks, U.S.
