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Institutional Investor (March 20)

2020/ 03/ 21 by jd in Global News

“The coronavirus pandemic has pushed the world’s economy into a slowdown that may lead to default rates jumping as high as 10 percent in the next twelve months, according to analysts at S&P Global…. The sudden stop in global economic activity, the recent drop in oil prices, and record market volatility are all putting pressure on the creditworthiness of companies.” (October 9)

2019/ 10/ 10 by jd in Global News

“Now that Brent has lost more than $13 since its mid-September spike many are saying that Middle East risk is underpriced. We’re taking a different view…. Washington and Beijing still pose more of a threat to oil prices than Tehran and Riyadh.”


Institutional Investor (June 15)

2015/ 06/ 16 by jd in Global News

“For economists who complain about the distortions and deficits caused by energy subsidies, 2014 was a godsend.” Over 25 countries made progress in curtailing “their fuel subsidy programs…in favor of aligning domestic prices with global prices. But the recent rebound in oil prices threatens to undo much of that good work.”


New York Times (April 7)

2015/ 04/ 08 by jd in Global News

“Greece cannot count on Russia to ride to its financial rescue. The sharp drop in oil prices and, to a lesser extent, Western sanctions have damaged the Russian economy and limited Mr. Putin’s ability to dole out aid to other countries.” The Greeks can, however, be sure that Putin will try to exploit any chinks in the EU’s armor. “Mr. Tsipras should be careful not to let himself be used to undermine European unity.”


Institutional Investor (March 2)

2015/ 03/ 03 by jd in Global News

“OPEC members with little foreign currency reserves or alternate sources of income have been struggling to keep afloat during the global slump in oil prices.”


Washington Post (January 19)

2015/ 01/ 19 by jd in Global News

The drop in oil prices is hitting Venezuela, Russia and Iran hard. These “three troublesome nations” rely on energy exports for 68-95% of their external revenue. Venezuela now “appears on the edge of a political chasm. Putin will try to fend off domestic upheaval with more foreign aggression. And Iran will make a fateful choice between forging a lifeline to the United States and Europe and consciously embracing isolation and harsh austerity.”


The Economist (December 20)

2014/ 12/ 22 by jd in Global News

“A financial crash in Russia; falling oil prices and a strong dollar; a new gold rush in Silicon Valley and a resurgent American economy; weakness in Germany and Japan; tumbling currencies in emerging markets from Brazil to Indonesia; an embattled Democrat in the White House…. Add all this up and 2015 seems likely to be bumpy.”


Financial Times (December 19)

2014/ 12/ 20 by jd in Global News

Concerns that lower oil prices will spark deflation are misplaced. “While lower oil prices will have a one-off arithmetic effect on the price level and hence reduce inflation, that should boost growth rather than retarding it. Lower oil prices…benefit households almost immediately,” essentially raising real incomes and stimulating demand.


Washington Post (December 3)

2014/ 12/ 05 by jd in Global News

“In authoritarian politics, as in life, attitude is everything, or almost everything.” Vladimir Putin has demonstrated a relentless desire to hold onto power by any means necessary. “Those who hope that falling oil prices, or Western sanctions, or a combination of the two, will force a change of course in Moscow — much less a change of regime — must reckon with the fact that Putin has seen that scenario once already, in Gorbachev’s time. And he seems determined that the sequel, if any, will end differently.”