Financial Times (May 1)
“The European Central Bank and the Bank of England have warned they may need to raise interest rates in the coming months, as central banks grapple with the energy shock triggered by the war in the Middle East. The two central banks on Thursday followed the Federal Reserve in holding interest rates at their current levels, but both indicated future rate rises could be necessary if soaring energy costs spill over into persistently high inflation.”
Tags: BOE, Central banks, Costs, ECB, Energy shock, Fed, Grapple, Interest rates, Middle East, War, Warned
Reuters (June 19)
“Central banks are grappling with elevated uncertainty about economic growth and inflation, complicating decision-making, especially for those trying to calibrate policy as they near the end of their rate-cutting cycles.” The rate uncertainty is in turn “making life hard for investors.” For example, “Norway’s central bank on Thursday gave markets a shock by cutting interest rates, and even the U.S. Federal Reserve is warning not to put much weight on its policy projections.”
Tags: Calibrate, Central banks, Decision-making, Economic growth, Fed, Grappling, Inflation, Investors, Norway, Policy projections, Rate-cutting cycles, U.S., Uncertainty, Warning
Reuters (January 18)
The anticipated “mega-merger boom threatens a shareholder bloodbath.” As global conditions improve and central banks cut borrowing costs, mega-deals are expected to proliferate. An expected lighter regulatory touch will provide extra momentum. Based on past results, however, “when acquisitions reach $10 billion or more… the worst fears of shareholders are often confirmed.” Large acquirers generally end up trailing industry peers by 5% in median annualized total return.
Tags: Acquirer, Acquisitions, Bloodbath, Boom, Borrowing costs, Central banks, Expected, Fears, Lagging, Mega-merger, Momentum, Regulatory, Shareholder
Wall Street Journal (September 18)
“The Federal Reserve’s rate cut Wednesday sounded the all-clear for overseas central banks that are also concerned about their domestic economic growth.” Some major central banks like the BoE and ECB, already beat the Fed in cutting rates, but “there are a number of others, including in India, South Korea and South Africa, that have held back. And the Fed’s move could encourage them to take the plunge.”
Tags: All-clear, BOE, Central banks, ECB, Economic growth, Encourage, Fed, India, Overseas, Plunge, Rate cut, South Africa, South Korea
Financial Times (August 23)
“Closely watched gauges of long-term inflation expectations in Europe have reached their lowest levels for almost two years, in a sign that investors think central banks can keep lowering interest rates without risking a flare-up in price pressures.” Concerns are also easing in the U.S., with “markets pricing the average long-term inflation rate at 2.4 per cent, down from 2.6 per cent in July.”
Tags: Central banks, Concerns, Easing, Europe, Expectations, Flare up, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Price pressures, Risking, U.S.
Reuters (May 13)
“With scars from a post-Ukraine energy security crisis fresh, oil prices around $80 a barrel, and central banks’ rate hikes reducing the value of long-term businesses like offshore wind, investors have already voted with their feet. Shell’s share price has risen by a third since 2023, while the benchmark FTSE 100 Index only gained 16% during the same period. Morningstar recorded net outflows globally from sustainable investing in the fourth quarter.”
Tags: 80, Barrel, Benchmark, Central banks, Crisis, Energy security, FTSE 100, Investors, Morningstar, Offshore wind, Oil prices, Outflows, Rate hikes, Share price, Shell, Ukraine, Value, Voted
Wall Street Journal (June 20)
“The world’s central banks underestimated inflation last year. They are trying not to make the same mistake twice.” But they are “in a tricky spot. They need to decide if inflation has stalled way above their 2% target, which could require much higher interest rates to fix, or if inflation’s decline is only delayed. Get the call wrong, and they could push the rich world into a deep recession or force it to endure years of high inflation.”
Tags: 2% target, Central banks, Deep recession, Delayed, Inflation, Interest rates, Mistake, Rich world, Stalled, Tricky spot, Underestimated
Wall Street Journal (June 16)
“In just 24 hours this past week the central banks of the world’s three biggest economic blocs came to starkly different conclusions, with the eurozone raising rates, the U.S. on hold and the Chinese cutting. It’s getting harder for investors to understand the global economy—and potentially getting harder for the Federal Reserve to put a lid on inflation.”
Tags: Biggest, Central banks, China, Conclusions, Cutting, Different, eurozone, Fed, Global economy, Hold, Inflation, Investors, Raising, Rates, U.S.
Institutional Investor (December 14)
“Investors are proceeding with caution as central banks move to rein in inflation. Expectations of more aggressive monetary policy have prompted investors to adopt more defensive asset allocation strategies…. In addition to piling into cash, investors have also adopted more defensive positioning by overweighting healthcare stocks and underweighting assets that are exposed to interest rate hikes.”
Tags: Aggressive, Asset allocation, Cash, Caution, Central banks, Defensive, Expectations, Healthcare stocks, Inflation, Interest rate hikes, Investors, Monetary policy, Overweighting
Wall Street Journal (December 3)
“Wages are going gangbusters in the U.S.—elsewhere, not so much.” In Australia and Japan, “pay growth remains anemic… despite labor shortages.” Nor do wages appear to be rapidly accelerating in Europe, all of which is “easing pressure on their central banks to raise interest rates.”
Tags: Anemic, Australia, Central banks, Europe, Gangbusters, Interest rates, Japan, Labor shortages, Pay growth, U.S., Wages
