Washington Post (September 20)
“Although investors cheered the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut and the stock market has kept powering along, the economy is facing growing headwinds on one crucial front — consumer spending,” which is “faltering.” Even upper income consumers “are being more strategic about when to make big purchases, buying in bulk and shopping at cheaper retailers,” but the “shift is most pronounced among lower-income consumers, who are disproportionately vulnerable to rising prices and other economic pressures eroding their purchasing power.”
Tags: Bulk, Consumer spending, Economic pressures, Economy, Faltering, Fed, Headwinds, Investors, Lower-income, Rate cut, Retailers, Rising prices, Stock market, Upper income, Vulnerable
Bloomberg (October 15)
“Europe’s saga has taken a new turn. At its last meeting, the European Central Bank seemed in no hurry to cut rates further. Now expectation has shifted to virtual certainty that a rate cut is coming. Indeed, market participants expect the ECB to cut rates in almost perfect synchronization with the Federal Reserve.”
Tags: Certainty, ECB, Europe, Expectation, Fed, Market participants, Rate cut, Saga, Synchronization
Wall Street Journal (September 18)
“The Federal Reserve’s rate cut Wednesday sounded the all-clear for overseas central banks that are also concerned about their domestic economic growth.” Some major central banks like the BoE and ECB, already beat the Fed in cutting rates, but “there are a number of others, including in India, South Korea and South Africa, that have held back. And the Fed’s move could encourage them to take the plunge.”
Tags: All-clear, BOE, Central banks, ECB, Economic growth, Encourage, Fed, India, Overseas, Plunge, Rate cut, South Africa, South Korea
Investment Week (July 19)
“UK retail sales volumes dropped by 1.2% in June,” marking a reversal of May’s stronger figures. Retailers are blaming “election uncertainty, along with poor weather and low footfall.” On the plus side, however, “falling UK wage growth boosts chances of August rate cut across most sectors.”
Tags: Election uncertainty, Footfall, June, May, Poor weather, Rate cut, Retail sales, Retailers, Reversal, UK, Volumes, Wage growth
Investment Week (May 10)
“The Bank of England is widely expected to make a 25 basis points hike tomorrow (11 May) as inflation remains stickily in the double digits, despite record rises in interest rates over the past two years. The move would come in the wake of similar decisions from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank last week.” Looking ahead, a rate cut seems more likely from the Fed, with analysts “split on the path forward for the BoE following the presumed 25bps hike, with much depending on economic data released over the next few months.”
Tags: 25 basis points, Analysts, BOE, ECB, Economic data, Fed, Hike, Inflation, Interest rates, Rate cut, Split
USA Today (October 4)
“The unemployment rate fell from 3.7% to 3.5%, the lowest since December 1969…. Average wages, however, fell. Wall Street cheered the mixed report, which … kept in play a possible Fed rate cut this month, which would be the third since July.”
Tags: Fed, Mixed, Rate, Rate cut, Unemployment, Wages, Wall Street
Investment Week (September 18)
“The global economy is in a tricky spot…. Money markets are pricing in two possible scenarios, with two very different outcomes. First, a high probability of limited Fed easing…. This would not be enough to kick‑start global growth. Second, a low probability of significant Fed easing, resulting in rates being cut close to zero. This—combined with some limited fiscal stimulus from Europe and China—would be enough to refresh global growth.”
Tags: EU, Fed easing, Fiscal stimulus, Global economy, Growth, Money markets, Outcomes, Pricing, Rate cut, Scenarios
Washington Post (August 2)
“China’s state-driven economic model has created many problems. Monetary policy isn’t one of them.” On the heels of the Fed’s rate cut, the ECB “looks poised to follow suit in September” and “the temptation is high for other central banks to fall in line.” But often they’re “canceling out each other’s efforts,” which is one reason the dollar didn’t fall with the latest rate cut. “Developed nations play out what is a zero-sum game.” In the process, they’re “using up the ammunition they have available to support their economies in the event of a downturn.” In contrast, the PBOC has avoided playing the rate cut game and “China’s 10-year government bond yield is relatively unchanged since the end of 2018.”
Tags: Canceling out, China Economic model, Developed nations, Dollar, Downturn, ECB, Fed, Monetary policy, PBOC, Rate cut, Temptation, Zero-sum game
