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Institutional Investor (August 14)

2023/ 08/ 16 by jd in Global News

“A public market downturn and an abundant supply of private equity stakes have culminated in an unmissable opportunity for secondaries investors.” Favorable “supply/demand imbalances and market dynamics” have arisen due to “the dramatic outperformance of private equity thanks to lagged marks and flat or marginally down valuations in 2022,” causing “asset owners to become overweight PE as public equity markets declined materially.” Pensions, endowments, foundations and other asset owners have become “forced sellers of private equity stakes to return to their strategic weights,” and “because of illiquidity, overhang, supply/demand imbalance, and forced selling, buyers require a material discount to transact.”

 

Financial Times (June 25)

2023/ 06/ 26 by jd in Global News

“A long-anticipated reckoning is under way in the US commercial property industry…. Sharply rising rates, a regional banking crisis that curtailed credit and a trend towards remote work are all wreaking havoc. Older office buildings have borne the brunt of the downturn, but other real estate categories have not been spared.” In New York City, the value of office buildings is “estimated to have dropped by $76bn from their most recent sales price.”

 

Fortune (May 6)

2023/ 05/ 08 by jd in Global News

“Warren Buffett, whose economic insights are craved for Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s deep ties to the American economy, had a gloomy prediction for his own businesses: the good times may be over. The billionaire investor expects earnings at the majority of Berkshire’s operations to fall this year as a long-predicted downturn slows economic activity.”

 

The Economist (October 22)

2022/ 10/ 24 by jd in Global News

“House prices are now falling in nine rich economies…. In condo-crazed Canada homes cost 9% less than they did in February. As inflation and recession stalk the world a deepening correction is likely.” Falling home prices are unlikely to lead to a global banking crisis, but “it will intensify the downturn, leave a cohort of people with wrecked finances and start a political storm.”

 

FreightWaves (March 24)

2022/ 03/ 24 by jd in Global News

After two years of COVID-induced havoc in global freight markets, volatility has started to abate,” but looking ahead, “the picture isn’t pretty. We think another sharp, painful downturn in the U.S. truckload market is imminent, and it could be as bad as 2019.” Rather than the usual March surge, “March volumes are softer than at any point in 2021” and appear linked “to a major consumer slowdown…. Spot rates are falling fast and volumes are dropping.”

 

New York Times (February 12)

2020/ 02/ 13 by jd in Global News

“The coronavirus outbreak in China has generated economic waves that are rocking global commodities markets and disrupting the supply networks that act as the backbone of the global economy…. Whether the downturn is a blip or a serious shock is as much a question of epidemiology as economics.”

 

Washington Post (August 17)

2019/ 08/ 18 by jd in Global News

“American consumers are increasingly propping up the global economy,” but it’s unclear that they can keep playing this role or even continue propping up the U.S. economy. “A number of signs point to a possible downturn in the United States, economists are growing more skeptical that consumers will continue to open up their wallets as freely. A failure to do so could hasten the arrival of the first U.S. recession in a decade.

 

Washington Post (August 2)

2019/ 08/ 04 by jd in Global News

“China’s state-driven economic model has created many problems. Monetary policy isn’t one of them.” On the heels of the Fed’s rate cut, the ECB “looks poised to follow suit in September” and “the temptation is high for other central banks to fall in line.” But often they’re “canceling out each other’s efforts,” which is one reason the dollar didn’t fall with the latest rate cut. “Developed nations play out what is a zero-sum game.” In the process, they’re “using up the ammunition they have available to support their economies in the event of a downturn.” In contrast, the PBOC has avoided playing the rate cut game and “China’s 10-year government bond yield is relatively unchanged since the end of 2018.”

 

Nikkei (May 19)

2019/ 05/ 21 by jd in Global News

“Japan’s economy” looks “on course for a major downturn,” based on a survey of about 1,300 economists. “Should China’s stimulus take hold, concerns about a worsening Japanese economy may be washed away. Yet Japan is constrained not only in its monetary policy, but also in its fiscal leeway considering the heavy government debt load,” not to mention the need for major employment and social security reforms.

 

Investment Week (March 12)

2019/ 03/ 14 by jd in Global News

“BBB corporate bonds, the lowest investment grade rating band in which a company’s debt rating can reside, have now grown to make up more than half of the entire global investment grade (IG) market.” When the next downturn strikes,”there could be a cascade of ‘fallen angels’, companies that are downgraded from IG to high yield (HY), swamping the smaller HY market and causing problems for investors as liquidity dries up and imperfect market clearing mechanisms struggle to cope.”

 

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