Fortune (June 28)
“Recent housing market indicators show persistent weakness in home prices, including consecutive month-over-month declines. That’s as housing supply has increased while demand has stayed tepid amid still-high mortgage rates hovering around 7%. The slump in prices raises the risk of a prolonged downturn.” There may be an upside to the slump. Lower prices may “make homes more attractive, potentially spurring more demand and representing some relief for younger Americans who are looking to buy but have been priced out of the market.”
Tags: Buy, Declines, Demand, Downturn, Home prices, Housing market, Indicators, Mortgage rates, Persistent weakness, Priced out, Relief, Supply, Tepid, Younger
Institutional Investor (April 15)
“Whether passively or actively managed, the REIT industry has not been able to avoid sharp slowdowns every decade or so. In the present downturn, publicly traded REITs can be acquired at a substantial discount to their net asset value. That means it has actually become cheaper to buy real estate through a REIT than to purchase the properties directly.” The sector seems primed for consolidation and “the likely dropouts” include “REITs that took on too much debt when commercial real estate roared ahead and got into trouble when the cycle spun downward.”
Tags: Acquired, Cheaper, Commercial real estate, Consolidation, Cycle, Debt, Discount, Downturn, NAV, Passively. Actively managed, Properties, Real estate, REIT industry, Slowdowns
Rolling Stone (September 4)
“Economic policy has become a centerpiece of both campaigns as Harris and Trump battle to win over anxious voters.” But Trump’s plan to “impose universal tariffs on all imported products” is not a hit with economists or Wall Street. Goldman Sachs has warned “that a victory by former President Donald Trump would likely lead to an economic downturn.” In contrast, the bank forecasts the Harris plan would provide a boost to GDP growth.
Tags: Boost, Campaigns, Centerpiece, Downturn, Economic policy, Economists, GDP growth, Goldman Sachs, Harris, Tariffs, Trump, Voters, Wall Street
Institutional Investor (August 14)
“A public market downturn and an abundant supply of private equity stakes have culminated in an unmissable opportunity for secondaries investors.” Favorable “supply/demand imbalances and market dynamics” have arisen due to “the dramatic outperformance of private equity thanks to lagged marks and flat or marginally down valuations in 2022,” causing “asset owners to become overweight PE as public equity markets declined materially.” Pensions, endowments, foundations and other asset owners have become “forced sellers of private equity stakes to return to their strategic weights,” and “because of illiquidity, overhang, supply/demand imbalance, and forced selling, buyers require a material discount to transact.”
Tags: Asset owners, Discount, Downturn, Endowments, Forced selling, Foundations, Illiquidity, Imbalances, Market dynamics, Opportunity, Outperformance, Overhang, Overweight, Pensions, Private equity, Secondaries investors, Supply, Valuations
Financial Times (June 25)
“A long-anticipated reckoning is under way in the US commercial property industry…. Sharply rising rates, a regional banking crisis that curtailed credit and a trend towards remote work are all wreaking havoc. Older office buildings have borne the brunt of the downturn, but other real estate categories have not been spared.” In New York City, the value of office buildings is “estimated to have dropped by $76bn from their most recent sales price.”
Tags: Anticipated, Commercial property, Credit, Downturn, Havoc, Office buildings, Reckoning, Regional banking crisis, Remote work, Rising rates, U.S.
Fortune (May 6)
“Warren Buffett, whose economic insights are craved for Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s deep ties to the American economy, had a gloomy prediction for his own businesses: the good times may be over. The billionaire investor expects earnings at the majority of Berkshire’s operations to fall this year as a long-predicted downturn slows economic activity.”
Tags: Berkshire Hathaway, Billionaire, Buffett, Craved, Downturn, Earnings, Economy, Gloomy, Insights, Investor, Predicted, Prediction
The Economist (October 22)
“House prices are now falling in nine rich economies…. In condo-crazed Canada homes cost 9% less than they did in February. As inflation and recession stalk the world a deepening correction is likely.” Falling home prices are unlikely to lead to a global banking crisis, but “it will intensify the downturn, leave a cohort of people with wrecked finances and start a political storm.”
Tags: Banking, Canada, Condo, Correction, Crisis, Deepening, Downturn, Falling, Finances, House prices, Inflation, Intensify, Political storm, Recession, Rich economies, Wrecked
FreightWaves (March 24)
After two years of COVID-induced havoc in global freight markets, volatility has started to abate,” but looking ahead, “the picture isn’t pretty. We think another sharp, painful downturn in the U.S. truckload market is imminent, and it could be as bad as 2019.” Rather than the usual March surge, “March volumes are softer than at any point in 2021” and appear linked “to a major consumer slowdown…. Spot rates are falling fast and volumes are dropping.”
Tags: Abate, Consumer slowdown, Covid, Downturn, Freight markets, Global, Havoc, Painful, Sharp, Spot rates, Surge, Truckload, U.S., Volatility, Volumes
New York Times (February 12)
“The coronavirus outbreak in China has generated economic waves that are rocking global commodities markets and disrupting the supply networks that act as the backbone of the global economy…. Whether the downturn is a blip or a serious shock is as much a question of epidemiology as economics.”
Tags: China, Commodities markets, Coronavirus, Disrupting, Downturn, Economic waves, Epidemiology, Networks, Outbreak, Supply
Washington Post (August 17)
“American consumers are increasingly propping up the global economy,” but it’s unclear that they can keep playing this role or even continue propping up the U.S. economy. “A number of signs point to a possible downturn in the United States, economists are growing more skeptical that consumers will continue to open up their wallets as freely. A failure to do so could hasten the arrival of the first U.S. recession in a decade.
Tags: Consumers, Downturn, Economists, Failure, Global economy, Skeptical, U.S., Wallets
