OilPrice.com (January 12)
“Regardless of how investable Venezuela will be in the future, the U.S. control over its oil industry would change the power balance in the oil markets, giving the U.S. more sway in longer-term supply. This would leave OPEC and the wider OPEC+ group including Russia and Kazakhstan with potentially diminished clout in influencing the oil market balances and prices.”
Tags: Clout, Control, Diminished, Future, Investable, Kazakhstan, Market balance, Oil industry, OPEC, Power balance, Prices, Russia, Supply, U.S., Venezuela
Reuters (November 16)
“China’s factory output and retail sales grew at their weakest pace in over a year in October, piling pressure on policymakers to revamp the $19 trillion export-driven economy as mounting supply and demand strains threaten to further curtail growth.” Officials may be running out of options to keep “the world’s second-largest economy humming…. even an economy of China’s size can only squeeze so much growth from building more industrial parks, power substations and dams.”
Tags: China, Dams, Demand, Economy, Export-driven, Factory output, Industrial parks, October, Officials, Policymakers, Retail sales, Substations, Supply, Weakest
Fortune (June 28)
“Recent housing market indicators show persistent weakness in home prices, including consecutive month-over-month declines. That’s as housing supply has increased while demand has stayed tepid amid still-high mortgage rates hovering around 7%. The slump in prices raises the risk of a prolonged downturn.” There may be an upside to the slump. Lower prices may “make homes more attractive, potentially spurring more demand and representing some relief for younger Americans who are looking to buy but have been priced out of the market.”
Tags: Buy, Declines, Demand, Downturn, Home prices, Housing market, Indicators, Mortgage rates, Persistent weakness, Priced out, Relief, Supply, Tepid, Younger
Wall Street Journal (April 27)
Exxon and Chevron “are still printing big profits, but their postpandemic run of record earnings is slowing down.” After gyrating with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, “oil-and-gas supplies have largely stabilized… and analysts say companies such as Exxon—the western world’s largest oil refiner—will have to prove it can keep costs down and production up if the benefits of external market forces continue to ebb.”
Tags: Analysts, Chevron, Costs, Earnings, Exxon, Gas, Gyrating, Invasion, Oil, Postpandemic, Production, Profits, Record, Refiner, Russia, Stabilized, Supply, Ukraine
Institutional Investor (August 14)
“A public market downturn and an abundant supply of private equity stakes have culminated in an unmissable opportunity for secondaries investors.” Favorable “supply/demand imbalances and market dynamics” have arisen due to “the dramatic outperformance of private equity thanks to lagged marks and flat or marginally down valuations in 2022,” causing “asset owners to become overweight PE as public equity markets declined materially.” Pensions, endowments, foundations and other asset owners have become “forced sellers of private equity stakes to return to their strategic weights,” and “because of illiquidity, overhang, supply/demand imbalance, and forced selling, buyers require a material discount to transact.”
Tags: Asset owners, Discount, Downturn, Endowments, Forced selling, Foundations, Illiquidity, Imbalances, Market dynamics, Opportunity, Outperformance, Overhang, Overweight, Pensions, Private equity, Secondaries investors, Supply, Valuations
Marketwatch (July 14)
“Only 9% of all existing mortgages in the U.S. were taken out with a rate of above 6%,” with a majority of mortgages at rates below 4%. As a result, “the supply of new homes has been severely constrained by this imbalance…. New listings — a measure of how many sellers were putting up their homes for sale — were down 27% in early July versus a year ago.”
Tags: 4%, 6%, 9%, Constrained, Existing mortgages, Homes, Imbalance, New listings, Sale, Sellers, Supply, U.S.
Seeking Alpha (April 5)
“Investors were taken by surprise on April 2nd when news broke that OPEC+…announced unexpected cuts in output. This move came even in spite of a previously rosy forecast for the supply and demand balance that OPEC made public…. Investors would be wise to see this as a bullish development for any company that benefits from higher oil prices. But in particular, the exploration and production companies could be very appealing to consider at this time.”
Tags: Appealing, Bullish, Demand, Exploration, Forecast, Investors, Oil prices, OPEC, Output, Production, Supply, Surprise, Unexpected
Oilprice.com (December 26)
“Although the EU embargo and the EU-G7 price cap on Russian crude oil at $60 per barrel didn’t immediately roil the oil market – although traders were concerned about a possible demand hit from slowing economies – uncertainty is growing over how the bans on Russian imports will affect supply balances over the next few months.”
Tags: $60, Bans, Barrel, Crude oil, Demand, Economies, Embargo, EU, EU-G7, Imports, Oil market, Price cap, Roil, Russia, Supply, Traders, Uncertainty
Barron’s (June 27)
“Russia’s first default on its foreign debt in more than 100 years is the latest sign that the sanctions… have consequences,” but it’s a “symbolic win.” Energy prices remain the biggest impact of sanctions. “Oil prices aren’t coming down as long as Western powers are working to wean themselves off Russian supply. Faster inflation and rising interest rates, meanwhile, are bringing the global economy to its knees.”
Tags: 100 years, Consequences, Default, Energy prices, Foreign debt, Impact, Inflation, Interest rates, Oil prices, Russia, Sanctions, Supply, Symbolic win
Reuters (June 6)
“Even though supply disruptions in many parts of the world are severe and policy solutions are challenging, Western governments do have the opportunity to reverse the rising cost of food through the simple scrapping of biofuel mandates. This would remove a very large non-food demand for crops and turn the current grain shortage to a surplus, easing the pressure on inflation.”
Tags: Biofuel mandates, Crops, Demand, Disruptions, Food, Governments, Grain shortage, Inflation, Opportunity, Solutions, Supply, Surplus
