Time (July 16)
“Iran’s return to conflict is best read as a calculated gamble…. Above all, Tehran’s leadership fears a staged unwinding of its leverage. Once it stops threatening shipping and restrains its regional partners, those tools become difficult to recover.” While Iran may be “running a familiar playbook of escalating to deescalate” and may have an “accurate reading” of President Donald Trump’s desire “to avoid rising energy prices, American casualties, and another open ended war in the Middle East;” there’s less certainty about how that deescalation will come about. “There is no formal consensus… and no faction willing to move first on anything that could be portrayed as surrendering leverage, legitimizing the bombing campaign, or handing Trump a clear victory.”
Tags: Calculated, Casualties, Certainty, Conflict, Deescalate, Energy prices, Escalating, Fears, Iran, Leadership, Legitimizing, Leverage, Middle East, Recover, Shipping, Threatening, Tools, Trump, War
South China Morning Post (May 24)
“Tensions in the Middle East and mounting energy prices have made Beijing less willing to enforce anti-involution or supply consolidation measures on its solar industry, prolonging a price war as solar manufacturers continue to bleed cash, analysts say.”
Tags: Anti-involution, Beijing, Bleed cash, Energy prices, Enforce, Manufacturers, Middle East, Price war, Solar industry, Supply consolidation, Tensions
Straits Times (July 15)
“Thailand’s decades-long manufacturing-driven economic model is broken.” The nation “has witnessed nearly 2,000 factory closures in the last year, upending its manufacturing sector that contributes nearly a quarter of its gross domestic product (GDP).” The main drivers appear to be “cheap imports from China and a slide in industrial competitiveness due to factors including rising energy prices and an ageing workforce.”
Tags: Ageing workforce, Broken, Cheap imports, China, Economic model, Energy prices, Factory closures, GDP, Industrial competitiveness, Manufacturing, Thailand
Financial Times (September 5)
“The euro dropped on Monday to a new 20-year low after Russia’s decision to shut a major gas pipeline to Europe intensified the energy crisis that has dealt a heavy blow to the region’s economy.” The currency blew past parity, going as low as $0.988 in London. Stocks fell and energy prices surged while “European capitals struggle to contain growing concerns over Russia’s ‘weaponisation’ of gas supplies.”
Tags: $0.988, 20-year low, Blow, Currency, Economy, Energy crisis, Energy prices, euro, Europe, Gas, London, Parity, Pipeline, Russia, Shut, Stocks, Surged, Weaponisation
Barron’s (June 27)
“Russia’s first default on its foreign debt in more than 100 years is the latest sign that the sanctions… have consequences,” but it’s a “symbolic win.” Energy prices remain the biggest impact of sanctions. “Oil prices aren’t coming down as long as Western powers are working to wean themselves off Russian supply. Faster inflation and rising interest rates, meanwhile, are bringing the global economy to its knees.”
Tags: 100 years, Consequences, Default, Energy prices, Foreign debt, Impact, Inflation, Interest rates, Oil prices, Russia, Sanctions, Supply, Symbolic win
