CNN (October 30)
“The US economy seems to have pulled off a remarkable and historic achievement.” James Bullard, the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, is among the “economists and officials who told CNN the economy has finally pulled off” a soft landing. “That scenario, in which inflation is tamed without a recession” would mark “an exceptionally rare achievement.”
Tags: Bullard, Economists, Economy, Fed, Historic, Inflation, Officials, Rare, Recession, Remarkable, Soft landing, St. Louis, Tamed, U.S.
Bloomberg (October 28)
“Political uncertainty will likely weigh on sentiment for investors in Japanese assets after the ruling coalition led by the Liberal Democratic Party failed to win a majority in parliament for the first time since 2009.” Though this uncertainty was not priced in, there may still be buying on dips, and “global investors are still pinning hopes on Japan’s improving corporate governance as a factor to buy equities.”
Tags: Assets, Coalition, Corporate governance, Dips, Failed, Investors, Japan, LDP, Majority, Parliament, Political uncertainty, Sentiment
Seeking Alpha (October 28)
“Benchmark crude oil futures fell Monday in their largest one-day decline in more than two years after Israel’s weekend strikes on Iran avoided energy facilities and ease worries of a wider war that could disrupt global supplies… Analysts said the lack of strikes on oil or nuclear facilities leaves the door open for both sides to de-escalate the conflict.”
Tags: Analysts, Benchmark, Crude oil, De-escalate, Decline, Disrupt, Energy facilities, Futures, Iran, Israel, Nuclear, Oil, Strikes, Wider war
Wall Street Journal (October 27)
“Japan became the largest private-equity market in Asia-Pacific last year, accounting for 30% of the deal value in the region.” Historically the nation’s share has been approximately 5% to 10%. And now, “a rare takeover battle has broken out in Japan between two American private-equity firms,” as KKR and Bain Capital wrestle “for control of Japanese software company Fuji Soft.” For Japan, the tussle “is the clearest sign yet of a new era.”
Tags: New era
FX Empire (October 26)
The IMF’s latest forecast counteracted any hope attached to China’s stimulus policy. “Markets reacted positively” when the People’s Bank of China “cut 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates (LPR) by 25 basis points” since “lower borrowing costs could drive credit demand and consumption.” In contrast, “the IMF’s latest growth projections… called for caution,” with 2024 growth forecast for China lowered from 5.0% to 4.8%.” Moreover, the IMF pointed out that “Beijing’s maneuvers may not be enough to support an economic recovery.”
Tags: 25 bp, Borrowing costs, Caution, China, Consumption, Credit demand, Economic recovery, Forecast, Growth projections, IMF, Markets, PBOC, Rates, Reacted, Stimulus
Reuters (October 25)
“Stablecoins, the latest innovation in digital currency, are a hybrid of the private and public models and claim to deliver the best of both their worlds.” Their users have roughly tripled in less than three years. “Stablecoins, it seems, give the people what they want: constant, real-time access to a globally usable, digital dollar.” As adoption grows, “the greenback’s supremacy” looks poised to be further reinforced.
Tags: Adoption, Digital currency, Digital dollar, Globally usable, Greenback, Hybrid, Innovation, Real time, Reinforced, Stablecoins, Supremacy, Tripled, Users
New York Times (October 24)
Increasingly, once “outspoken business moguls are now staying silent,” on the presidential election, “fearful of potential retribution should Trump win.” Jeff Bezos may be yet “another sign of corporate leaders’ cautiousness about publicly weighing in on the race.” The Washington Post, which he owns, “hasn’t yet endorsed a presidential candidate.”
Tags: Bezos, Business moguls, Cautiousness, Fearful, Leaders, Outspoken, Presidential election, Retribution, Silent, Trump, Washington Post
Financial Times (October 22)
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that “greater global protectionism will endanger the world’s growth outlook… as a possible Donald Trump victory in next month’s US election raises the prospect of sharp tariff increases.” The IMF’s World Economic Outlook warns that “if higher tariffs hit a ‘sizeable swath’ of world trade by mid-2025, it would wipe 0.8 per cent from economic output next year and 1.3 per cent in 2026.” If, however, widespread tit-for-tat measures ensue, the results could be considerably more destructive.
Tags: 2025, Economic output, Election, Endanger, Global protectionism, Growth outlook, IMF, Tariffs, Tit-for-tat, Trump, U.S., Victory, Warned, World trade
Fortune (October 22)
“The staggering one-two punch of hurricanes Helene and Milton has been one of the most destructive on record” and Goldman Sachs has pointed out this is “obscuring the view of the U.S. economy.” Combined damages are estimated at $90 billion, with nearly 10% of the population impacted. “Economic data that corresponds to October will be most skewed by the disasters…, potentially masking the precise state of market conditions and ongoing trends.”
Tags: $90 billion, Damages, Destructive, Economic data, Goldman Sachs, Helene, Hurricanes, Impacted, Milton, Obscuring, Skewed, Staggering, Trends, U.S. economy
Bloomberg (October 21)
“The global economy is heading toward year end with unexpected tailwinds as slowing inflation clears a path for an unlikely soft landing. But while the economics side of the equation is looking up, political hurdles lie ahead.” The biggest hurdle may be the U.S. election. “The resilience of the world’s major economies is about to be tested” if Trump is elected and institutes his tariff program.
Tags: Economics, Election, Global economy, Inflation, Major economies, Political hurdles, Resilience, Soft landing, Tailwinds, Trump, U.S., Unexpected
