Barron’s (November 10)
“The longest government shutdown on record may be nearing its conclusion, and U.S. stocks are likely to claw back a big chunk of last week’s decline.” But end of the shutdown is “a band-aid, not a cure” for markets. “The long, and likely volatile path to reopening the federal government…will only mask the major issues investors are grappling with heading into the final weeks of the trading year, and the stock market could break in either direction once some of those questions are addressed.”
Tags: Band-aid, Cure, Decline, Government, Investors, Longest, Record, Shutdown, Stock market, Stocks, Trading, U.S., Volatile
The Ecoomist (October 13)
Politicians, economists, investors and others have long argued whether China’s economy is “a bubble waiting to burst” or “a sustainable success.” The argument is shifting, however, as “a new debate is now emerging, which is potentially far nastier. Much of the world falls into one camp: admiring China’s accomplishments, but also reeling from a deluge of Chinese exports. In the other camp is China, utterly convinced of the rightness of its economic model.”
Tags: Accomplishments, Admiring, Argument, Bubble, Burst, China, Convinced, Debate, Deluge, Economists, Economy, Emerging, Exports, Investors, Nastier, Politicians, Reeling, Rightness, Success, Sustainable
Barron’s (October 1)
“Like the Y2K disaster or the widespread invasion of murder hornets, the highly anticipated September curse failed to materialize this year. The question is whether or not a rough patch has been avoided or simply delayed. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite recorded their best Septembers since 2010.” Still, some analysts and investors worry that the issues that worried them “before haven’t been resolved, even as investor complacency seems to suggest that they have been.”
Tags: 2010, Analysts, Avoided, Delayed, Highly anticipated, Invasion, Investors, Materialize, Nasdaq, Rough patch, S&P 500, September curse, Worry, Y2K disaster
Washington Post (September 20)
“Although investors cheered the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut and the stock market has kept powering along, the economy is facing growing headwinds on one crucial front — consumer spending,” which is “faltering.” Even upper income consumers “are being more strategic about when to make big purchases, buying in bulk and shopping at cheaper retailers,” but the “shift is most pronounced among lower-income consumers, who are disproportionately vulnerable to rising prices and other economic pressures eroding their purchasing power.”
Tags: Bulk, Consumer spending, Economic pressures, Economy, Faltering, Fed, Headwinds, Investors, Lower-income, Rate cut, Retailers, Rising prices, Stock market, Upper income, Vulnerable
Investment Week (September 12)
“Over the summer, the FTSE 100, S&P 500, Nasdaq and Japan’s main equity indices enjoyed record highs. Usually, you would think that this was great news…. But, instead, investors are pouring out of funds, as the background noise ratchets up ever higher.” Investor confidence has tumbled “across all global markets, with the biggest hit coming in North America.”
Tags: Confidence, Equity indices, FTSE 100, Funds, Global markets, Investors, Japan, Nasdaq, Noise, North America, S&P 500, Tumbled
Fortune (August 27)
“Investors are underestimating the inflation risk of President Trump’s tariffs, which will push up import costs,” concludes analyst Henry Allen of Deutsche Bank. “One indicator forecasts that U.S. inflation may soon exceed 4%. Consumers are also expecting higher prices. But the inflation swaps market has yet to reflect these risks.”
Tags: 4%, Allen, Analyst, Consumers, Deutsche Bank, Forecasts, Higher prices, Import costs, Indicator, Inflation, Investors, Risk, Trump’s tariffs, U.S., Underestimating
Bloomberg (August 24)
“China’s economy is being strained by US tariffs and a deep-rooted property crisis, yet stocks are extending their bull run — a disconnect that’s stirring doubts on the rally’s staying power. In just the past month, onshore stocks have added almost a trillion dollars to their market value, the Shanghai Composite Index has hit a decade-high and the CSI 300 Index has taken its advance from this year’s low to more than 20%. That’s when nearly every recent economic indicator — from consumption trends, home prices to inflation — has brought red flags for investors.”
Tags: Bull run, China, Consumption trends, CSI 300, Disconnect, Doubts, Economic indicator, Economy, Home prices, Inflation, Investors, Market value, Property crisis, Rally, Red flags, Shanghai, Staying power, Stocks, US tariffs
Reuters (August 22)
The “boom-to-bust saga” of China Evergrande Group drew closer to the end with its formal “delisting from the Hong Kong stock exchange on Monday,” which as the largest by market value and volume in recent years.” For investors, “the journey has been anything but grand.” After achieving a $9 billion market cap in its 2009 IPO, Evergrande rocketed ahead, growing “more than five-fold to $51 billion eight years later only to plummet to earth,” with it’s current value approximately $282 million and creditor claims of approximately $45 billion. “The company’s journey from stock exchange darling to a pariah in the financial markets is a cautionary tale of unbridled debt-fuelled expansion in the world’s second-largest economy.”
Tags: Boom, Bust, Cautionary tale, China. Evergrande, Creditor claims, Debt-fuelled, Delisting, Expansion, Hong Kong, Investors, IPO, Market value, Pariah, Stock exchange, Volume
Barron’s (August 14)
“Investors have typically penalized emerging markets such as Turkey, Argentina, and China due to concerns about the independence of the central bank, government intervention in the private sector, and rampant overspending.” Now these concerns are focused on “the U.S., which has historically been the paragon of a developed market.” Investors are reevaluating “the premium that U.S. assets have long commanded” and this could lead to “weaker long-run returns for stocks or, more immediately, higher bond yields and a continuation in the weakness of the dollar that has emerged this year.”
Tags: Argentina, Bond yields, Central bank, China, Developed market, Emerging markets, Government intervention, Independence, Investors, Overspending, Paragon, Penalized, Premium, Private-sector, Rampant, Reevaluating, Returns, Stocks, Turkey, U.S. assets
The Economist (July 31)
“America’s biggest technology companies are combining Silicon Valley returns with Ruhr Valley balance-sheets. Investors who bought shares in Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft a decade ago are sitting on eight times their money, excluding dividends.” Their hard assets multiplied with data center investment and their property, plant and equipment is now “worth more than 60% of their equity book value, up from 20%” a decade ago. Even more eye popping, combined with Amazon and Oracle, their capex spending is estimated to account “for a third of America’s economic growth during the most recent quarter.”
Tags: Alphabet, Amazon, Balance sheets, Book value, CAPEX, Data centers, Dividends, Eye-popping, Hard assets, Investors, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, Returns, Shares, Silicon Valley, U.S.
