New York Times (September 8)
“Investors are bracing for more inflation data this week that could persuade the Fed to raise its benchmark lending rate for the first time in three years. That uncertainty is roiling the bond market, just as rising oil and copper prices (more on copper below) threaten to pinch households and businesses.”
Tags: Benchmark, Bond market, Bracing, Copper, Fed, Households, Inflation, Investors, Lending rate, Oil, Pinch, Prices, Raise, Rising, Roiling, Uncertainty
Wall Street Journal (September 2)
“The 10-year Treasury note ticked up to 4.8% on Tuesday amid a global bond selloff that sent yields on Japan’s 10-year to a three-decade high. The U.S. 30-year bond hit 5.28%, while the U.K.’s 30-year gilt rose to a 28-year high of 5.9%.” These “early murmurs” of the “bond vigilantes” are a welcome development. “They are sending a message to Washington and other Western nations to clean up their fiscal acts. Bond investors may be the only people who can force the politicians to pay attention. The real worry is if the politicians don’t listen.”
Tags: 10-year, 30-year, 4.8%, 5.28%, 5.9%, Bond selloff, Clean-up, Fiscal acts, Gilt, Global, Investors, Japan, Murmurs, Politicians, Treasury note, U.K., Vigilantes, Washington, Welcome, Yields
San Francisco Chronicle (August 22)
“This week rising bond yields forced the U.S. Treasury Department into an unusual intervention and raised the specter of higher borrowing costs putting the brakes on consumer spending, the lifeblood of the economy. It also sparked concerns that investors might finally be thinking twice about financing a seemingly endless flow of government borrowing.” The Treasury intervention could fail since it doesn’t address “the deeper forces pushing yields higher: federal debt above $40 trillion, persistent deficits, inflation concerns and heavy borrowing tied to the AI investment boom.”
Tags: $40 trillion, AI investment, Bond yields, Boom, Borrowing costs, Concerns, Consumer spending, Deficits, Economy, Financing, Government, Inflation, Intervention, Investors, Rising, Treasury, U.S., Yields Federal debt
Financial Times (August 10)
“The yen has given up roughly half its gains following the historic joint intervention by the US and Japan, with investors saying the lack of a ‘unified voice’ among central banks lessened its market impact.” The prevailing view is that “the intervention would be unlikely to provide lasting support unless it was accompanied by interest rate rises from the Bank of Japan” and that the intervention might have been more effective with greater international co-operation, specifically involving the ECB, which was not consulted.
Tags: BOJ, Central banks, Co-operation, ECB, Gains, Interest rate, Investors, Japan, Joint intervention, Lasting support, Market impact, U.S., Yen
Motley Fool (August 2)
“While earnings season has been a mixed bag, with investors punishing companies spending exorbitantly on their artificial intelligence data center build-outs, it was the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision to leave interest rates unchanged that roiled the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average, benchmark S&P 500, and technology-powered Nasdaq Composite. The Dow’s greater-than 1,100-point loss on July 29 was its worst single-day performance in over a year.”
Tags: AI, Companies, Dow, Earnings season, FOMC, Interest rates, Investors, Mixed bag, Nasdaq Composite, Punishing, Roiled, S&P 500, Spending. Data center build-outs
New York Times (July 28)
“Chipmakers are taking a hit” on a number of fronts. “Investors worry that Big Tech’s extravagant artificial intelligence spending isn’t delivering real profits yet.” Moreover, “powerful open-weight models are making A.I. cheaper to run, raising questions about whether companies need to keep buying such expensive tech, including chips.” The chipmakers still have “huge long-term investment build-out commitments from major tech players,” which raises a major question. “Is this just a healthy reset for a hot market, or the start of a bigger slowdown?”
Tags: AI, Big tech, Build-out commitments, Cheaper, Chipmakers, Expensive, Extravagant, Hit, Investment, Investors, Market, Open-weight models, Profits, Reset, Spending, Worry
The Economist (July 18)
“It is too darn hot. On July 14th the surface temperature of Earth’s tropical and mid-latitude oceans was higher than on any other July 14th in modern records. The same was true for every other day in July, and for almost all of the days in June, too. Europe has gone through three heatwaves since May, and though the continent is better prepared for such things than it used to be, tens of thousands will have died as a result.”
Tags: Bessent, Bonds, Conflict, Currency, Decipher, Dollar, Fiscal concerns, Inflation, Investors, Markets, Middle East, Reassess, Trade war, US, Warsh
Institutional Investor (July 15)
“Investors need to understand the limits of what high returns tell them about a fund and probe deeper than the track record. In credit, headline returns can look attractive for years until the weakest loans finally reveal themselves. Only then do investors discover what was really sitting at the bottom of the portfolio.”
Tags: Credit, Fund, Headline returns, High returns, Investors, Limits, Loans, Portfolio, Probe, Reveal, Track record, Understand, Weakest
Barron’s (June 5)
“Markets have soared toward the rare air last breathed by investors in the mid-1980s, but the stalling tech rally is bringing stocks back down to Earth.” It was “a series of quarterly updates on Wednesday that punctured a hole in the AI trade that has powered markets higher since the end of March.” The “market’s angst” was compounded by “stubbornly high Treasury yields, the lack of an agreement on ending the U.S. war with Iran, and a near 10% gain for global crude prices since last Friday’s close.”
Tags: 1980s, AI trade, Angst, Crude, Investors, Iran, Markets, Punctured, Quarterly updates, Rare air, Soared, Stalling, Stocks, Tech rally, Treasury yields, U.S., War
Barron’s (May 27)
“Stocks are near their all-time highs.” Moreover, “investors are nervous about the numerous risks that could hit stocks and the economy. High oil prices and persistent inflation fears. The possibility that this will push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Worries about artificial-intelligence disrupting software and other sectors.” Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs believes equities “are still good investments” because “rapidly rising earnings could keep pushing up stock prices” and, rather than dumping equities, investors can manage risk in other ways.
Tags: AI, All-time highs, Earnings, Economy, Equities, Fears, Fed, Goldman Sachs, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Nervous, Numerous, Oil prices, Stock prices, Stocks
