Wall Street Journal (December 23)
“New data released Tuesday showed that the unemployment rate has risen from 4% when President Trump took office to 4.6% in November. A sizable drift like that isn’t a good political omen, but it also isn’t rare.”
Washington Post (July 9)
The Sahm Rule is considered “the best available recession indicator.” From its nadir, the unemployment rate has risen nearly half a percentage point, which is the rule’s threshold signifying a new recession. “This indicator is flashing a warning sign for the United States. It doesn’t indicate a recession will definitely happen soon, but it is an important wake-up call, and the Federal Reserve needs to pay attention.”
Tags: Attention spans, Fed, Indicator, Nadir, Recession, Sahm Rule, U.S., Unemployment rate, Wake-up call, Warning sign
Wall Street Journal (June 8-9)
“The recession, predicted by business executives, economists, and investors, refuses to show up. Steady hiring continues to fuel consumer spending and, in turn, an economic expansion unlike any the U.S. has seen. Employers added 2.75 million jobs over the last 12 months,” with an unemployment rate “at or below 4% for 30 months, something that last occurred during the Vietnam War in the late 1960s and the Korean War in the early 1950s.”
Tags: Consumer spending, Economic expansion, Economists, Employers, Executives, Hiring, Investors, Predicted, Recession, U.S., Unemployment rate
Bloomberg (September 1)
“That jump in the unemployment rate was not a reflection of companies firing workers in anticipation of a slowdown.” A “very large 700,000 increase” in job seekers “caused the labor force participation rate to jump to 62.8%, the highest since before the pandemic.”
Tags: 62.8%, Companies, Firing, Highest, Job seekers, Jump, Labor force, Pandemic, Participation rate, Slowdown, Unemployment rate, Workers
The Economist (June 18)
“China’s economy is on course for a ‘double dip.’ The post-covid economy was meant to roar. But it is faltering again.” Since April, “retail sales, investment and property sales all fell short of expectations. And the unemployment rate among China’s urban youth rose above 20%, the highest since data began to be recorded in 2018.”
Tags: China, Double-dip, Economy, Expectations, Faltering, Investment, Post-Covid, Property sales, Retail sales, Unemployment rate, Urban youth
USA Today (August 21)
“The labor market seemed to defy gravity last year, generating more than 200,000 jobs a month despite a historically low unemployment rate that made it harder for employers to find workers. Turns out job growth wasn’t as robust as it appeared.” The Labor Department just issued its “largest downward revision in a decade.” Total job gains in the year ended March 2019 were revised downward by half a million. Based on this average monthly job growth was closer to 170,000, than the initial estimates of 210,000.
Tags: Defy, Employers, Gravity, Job growth, Labor Department, Labor market, Unemployment rate, Workers
New York Times (July 4)
The U.S. jobs report brought welcome news: 288,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate hit 6.1%, the lowest since September 2008. “Behind the good news, however, there is still enormous slack in the economy. Human capital is being wasted. Economic ground is being lost, often irretrievably.”
Tags: Economy, Human capital, Jobs report, Slack, U.S., Unemployment rate
Investment Week (May 19)
At just 3.6%, Japan’s unemployment rate is extremely low and this should promote inflation. “Labour shortages have already driven wages higher for part-time workers. Adding to this, the demand to provide new infrastructure for the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo and the need to replace equipment should also serve to further stimulate the economy.” The OECD has forecast that “only Japan, New Zealand, and Israel are expected to grow faster than their previously forecasted GDPs in 2014.”
Tags: 2020 Olympics, Economy, Equipment, GDP, Inflation, Infrastructure, Israel, Japan, Labor, New Zealand, OECD, Shortage, Tokyo, Unemployment rate, Wages, Workers
Wall Street Journal (May 4)
“The unemployment rate fell a tick to 8.1%, albeit mainly because the labor force shrank by 342,000.” This is a major worry. In April, the civilian labor participation rate fell to 63.6%: “the second decline in a row and the lowest rate since December 1981.”
