Fortune (January 18)
“The greenback dropped while precious metals rallied Sunday as financial markets started reacting to President Donald Trump’s new tariff threats.” On Saturday, Trump announced 8 European allies would face “a 10% tariff starting on Feb. 1 that will rise to 25% on June 1, until a ‘Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland.’” His latest threat revived smoldering fears centering on “U.S. debt and reserve currency status.”
Tags: 10%, 25%, Allies, Debt, Fears, Financial markets, Greenback, Greenland, Precious metals, Rallied, Reserve currency, Tariff, Threats, Trump
Wall Street Journal (January 14)
“Trump wants to run the economy hot. There’s a good chance he’ll succeed,” but most presidents and Congresses avoid “juicing the economy” for good reason. The short-term results might be appealing, but “the long-term consequences” are real. “Ever-rising debt leaves future generations poorer and risks a debt crisis. Loosening credit and dialing back regulations, when valuations are already stretched, could end in market bust.”
Tags: Congresses, Consequences, Credit, Debt, Debt crisis, Economy, Future generations, Juicing, Presidents, Regulations, Risks, Trump, Valuations
Newsweek (November 17)
U.S. families “are struggling to keep up with rising utility costs” amid “persistent high prices for many groceries and other items.” Rising utility debt “has developed into a significant economic and political issue, which may affect the White House administration’s credibility on affordability, especially as voters have cited cost-of-living as their top concern in recent elections.” Monthly energy bills have risen 12% between April and June of 2025, with “nearly one in 20 U.S. households now facing utility debt severe enough for collection agencies to become involved.”
Tags: Affordability, Cost of living, Credibility, Debt, Elections, Energy bills, Families, Groceries, High prices, Household, Struggling, U.S., Utility costs, Voters, White House
Institutional Investor (April 15)
“Whether passively or actively managed, the REIT industry has not been able to avoid sharp slowdowns every decade or so. In the present downturn, publicly traded REITs can be acquired at a substantial discount to their net asset value. That means it has actually become cheaper to buy real estate through a REIT than to purchase the properties directly.” The sector seems primed for consolidation and “the likely dropouts” include “REITs that took on too much debt when commercial real estate roared ahead and got into trouble when the cycle spun downward.”
Tags: Acquired, Cheaper, Commercial real estate, Consolidation, Cycle, Debt, Discount, Downturn, NAV, Passively. Actively managed, Properties, Real estate, REIT industry, Slowdowns
Fortune (March 22)
“Investor Danny Moses, best known for his oracular bet against mortgage-backed debt before the 2008 stock market crash, is warning of another economic red flag.” Moses believes “the market has not yet accounted for the negative economic impact of the mass cuts to government jobs carried out by the Elon Musk-championed Department of Government Efficiency.” While “disruptions in consumer confidence” are already apparent, they “have yet to be priced into the market.” He expects an “unvirtuous cycle” to result “as more fired federal workers look for private sector jobs” and “find fewer opportunities because of shrinking revenue streams in government contracts.”
Tags: 2008, Debt, Disruptions, DOGE, Economic, Government jobs, Impact, Investor, Mass cuts, Mortgage-backed, Moses, Musk, Negative, Private-sector, Red flag, Stock market crash, Unvirtuous cycle, Warning
Fortune (September 18)
“Any prominent investor comparing China with Japan prior to its lost decades of stagnation ought to be alarming.” It’s even more alarming when it’s Ray Dalio, the founder of massive hedge fund, Bridgewater. Long known as China bull, he now “fears the property crisis in China has left local governments unable to service their debt by extracting equity through land sales” and that China’s economy now “faces problems as severe as Japan in 1990.”
Tags: Alarming, Bridgewater, China, Dalio, Debt, Economy, Equity, Founder, Hedge-fund, Investor, Japan, Local governments, Property crisis, Severe, Stagnation
Bloomberg (June 12)
“The owners of the Westfield San Francisco Centre mall are giving up the property to lenders, adding to deepening real estate pain in a city struggling to bring back workers and tourists after the pandemic.” Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield and Brookfield Corp. will default on $558 million in remaining debt. “San Francisco has been among the hardest-hit cities since the pandemic as office vacancies soar, retail vacancies rise and concerns about safety deter visitors.”
Tags: Brookfield, Cities, Debt, Default, Hardest-hit, Lenders, Mall, Office, Pain, Pandemic, Real estate, Retail, Safety, San Francisco, Struggling, Tourists, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield, Vacancies, Workers
Commercial Observer (June 1)
“For the illiquid world of private credit — which provides debt for commercial real estate projects -– and that of private equity, the recent upheaval in the U.S. regional banking sector and issues plaguing downtown office space has sparked questions surrounding the type of returns CRE can generate for investors. The primary question being: Is a golden moment possible in the darkest of times?”
Tags: Commercial real estate, Debt, Downtown, Illiquid, Office space, Plaguing, Private credit, Private equity, Regional banking, Returns, U.S., Upheaval
Bloomberg (April 8)
“Almost $1.5 trillion of US commercial real estate debt comes due for repayment before the end of 2025. The big question facing those borrowers is who’s going to lend to them?” Morgan Stanley has estimated “office and retail property valuations could fall as much as 40% from peak to trough, increasing the risk of defaults.” Regional banks are now skittish about lending and “the wall of debt is set to get worse before it gets better.”
Tags: $1.5 trillion, 2025, Borrowers, Commercial real estate, Debt, Defaults, Morgan Stanley, Office, Peak, Regional banks, Repayment, Risk, Skittish, Trough, U.S., Valuations
CNBC (November 13)
As large U.S. retailers report earnings, inventory levels will dominate the gaze of analysts and investors. Retailers including Walmart, Target and Gap “are trying to sell through a glut of extra merchandise piling up in store backrooms and warehouses…. Balancing inventory has taken on additional urgency, as economists warn of dwindling savings accounts, rising credit card debt and the risk of a recession.”
Tags: Analysts, Debt, Dominate, Earnings, Economists, Gap, Glut, Inventory, Investors, Merchandise, Retailers, Risk, Savings, Target, Urgency, Walmart, Warehouses
