New York Times (May 24)
Americans may be blind to “the war-driven supply shock already roiling manufacturing in Asia” which is especially “disrupting manufacturing and retail goods in Japan and South Korea” due to disrupted naphtha supply. “Because it serves as the building block for so many chemical products, naphtha is often called the ‘flour’ or ‘rice’ of industry.” So when the Iran War essentially “choked off” Persian Gulf shipping lanes, “more than 80 percent of Japan’s traditional supply lines for finished naphtha products” were “abruptly severed.” By some accounts, Japan and South Korea are consequently “the countries most exposed to the current supply disruptions.”
Tags: Asia, Blind, Exposed, Iran war, Japan, Manufacturing, Naphtha, Persian Gulf, Retail goods, Roiling, Shipping lanes, Shock, South Korea, U.S.
The Economist (May 18)
“Since Donald Trump took office in January last year, America’s economy has continued to be the envy of the rich world. In 2025, while Britain, France and Japan eked out annual GDP growth of 1%, give or take, and Germany all but stood still, American output grew by 2.1%.” That growth could have been far more impressive. The Economist calculates that without the drag created by “fitful presidential policymaking,” the U.S. “might be rocketing ahead at nearly 5% annualised growth.”
Tags: 2025, 5%, Drag, Economy, Envy, Fitful, France, GDP growth, Germany, Japan, Policymaking, Rich world, Trump, U.S., UK
Wall Street Journal (May 16)
By one measure, President Trump’s Beijing summit “was a success. It didn’t achieve much, but it also didn’t appear to give away anything notable.” The caveat is that “we can’t be sure based on the few details leaking out from the parties,” some of which sound incredible. “Mr. Trump boasted about ‘fantastic’ Chinese purchases to come of U.S. soybeans and aircraft. But China didn’t confirm the sales, and by our count this is the second time China has bought the same American soybeans. Or is it the third?” In addition, Mr. Trump “also didn’t appear to bend to Mr. Xi’s threats on Taiwan, at least not so far.” If, however, Trump gives into China and “stops arming Taiwan, Mr. Xi will have won the veto over U.S. sales that the Chinese leader has long sought. It will send a message of weakness to our allies in the region.” Details like this, should they out, would make it a misnomer to call this “The Good-News-Is-No-News Summit.”
Tags: Aircraft, Allies, Arming, Beijing summit, Caveat. Leaking. Incredible. Fantastic, China, Misnomer, Purchases, Sales, Soybeans, Success, Taiwan, Threats, Trump, U.S., Veto, Weakness, Xi
South China Morning Post (May 15)
“For years, global businesses have been struggling to navigate rising trade tensions between the United States and China. Now, they are bracing for a daunting new level of complication: an intensifying legal arms race between the two powers” who are “racing to erect rival – and often conflicting – legal and regulatory regimes” and “gain strategic leverage in their ongoing stand-off over a host of trade, technology and security issues.”
Tags: China, Global businesses, Intensifying, Legal arms race, Navigate, Regulatory regimes, Rival, Stand-off, Strategic leverage, Struggling, Technology, Trade tensions, U.S.
Barron’s (May 14)
“If we’re lucky, this week’s summit in Beijing won’t produce any shocking headlines on Iran, Taiwan, or any of the other prickly issues that divide the U.S. and China.” Instead, Trump “should surprise Xi with an offer to open the U.S. market to Chinese cars.” This would “stabilize the relationship with China, relieve the affordability squeeze back home, and re-energize his grumbling electoral base.” Trump only has two choices. “He can watch as Chinese cars are sold everywhere except America, or he can allow them to be made in America, by Americans.”
Tags: Affordability, Beijing, China, Chinese cars, Grumbling, Iran, Made in America, Market, Stabilize, Summit, Taiwan, U.S., Xi
The Economist (May 12)
“Ten weeks into the Iran war, the great oil-market mystery is deepening. Every day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, nearly 14m barrels of oil—14% of global output—are lost.” Yet somehow Brent crude is priced at “just $107 a barrel,” far lower than expected. “Petro-powers [especially the U.S.] outside the Gulf have turbocharged exports.” Inventories and strategic reserves [especially China’s] are being tapped liberally. “During the four weeks to May 10th the big oil-buying regions imported 11m b/d less petroleum” than a year prior. “America and China have bought the world time. It still faces a reckoning if Hormuz stays shut.”
Tags: $107, 14m b/d, Brent crude, China, Closed, Exports, Global output, Gulf, Inventories, Iran war, Mystery, Oil market, Petro-powers, Strait of Hormuz, Strategic reserves, Ten weeks, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (May 12)
“The U.S. and Iran are locked in a diplomatic stalemate over issues that have bedeviled the two sides for years, as the conflict settles into a gray zone that is neither war nor peace.” Though the stalemate “could shift any day,” it appears ”the most likely scenario for now is a continued limbo.” Little suggests “that either the U.S. or Iran is ready to compromise, but neither wants to start fighting again.”
Tags: Bedeviled, Compromise, Conflict, Continued limbo, Diplomatic stalemate, Gray zone, Iran, Peace, U.S., War
Bloomberg (May 9)
“A fresh batch of consumer price data in the coming week is likely to affirm Americans’ growing frustration with inflation.” According to a Bloomberg survey, economists are predicting “a sharp 0.6% increase in the consumer price index for April” as “prices at the gas pump have vaulted more than 50% since the US- and Israeli-led war on Iran started in late February.” Moreover, this is likely to begin filtering through to the broader economy. “The swift upturn in fuel prices is likely to be passed on by businesses in the form of higher consumer prices for other goods and services.”
Tags: April, Broader economy, Consumer prices, Economists, Fuel prices, Gas pump, Goods, Growing frustration, Inflation, Iran, Israel, Prices, U.S., Upturn, War
New York Times (May 8)
“A grinding war in Iran has so severely drained American firepower that Chinese analysts are openly questioning Washington’s ability to defend Taiwan. That shifting calculus threatens to undercut President Trump’s leverage in his high-stakes summit next week with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping.”
Tags: Ability, Analysts, China, Defend, Drained, Firepower, Grinding, High stakes, Iran, Leverage, Questioning, Summit, Taiwan, Threatens, Trump, U.S., Undercut, War
Financial Times (May 7)
“US fuel exports have surged to a record level as Europe and Asia lean on American energy supplies to make up for the shortfalls caused by the war in Iran.” Last week, America exported over “8.2mn barrels a day of refined fuels including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel,” a year-on-year increase exceeding 20%. Last week’s “huge demand for US energy” also transformed America into “a net exporter of crude oil for the first time since the second world war.” While this provides “a windfall” to US energy companies, “it also risks a political backlash for President Donald Trump as domestic pump prices rise.”
Tags: 20%, 8.2mn bbl, Asia, Backlash, Crude oil, Demand, Diesel, Energy, Europe, Exports, Fuel, Gasoline, Iran, Jet fuel, Record, Shortfalls, Surged, Trump, U.S., War, Windfall
