MarketWatch (July 30)
“One of the wildest months in recent memory for the U.S. stock market is ending on yet another remarkable note: A highflying hedge fund run by an AI wunderkind in his mid-20s has apparently just been carried out on a stretcher.” Before offloading “the bulk of its public-equity portfolio after suffering heavy losses over the past month,” Situational Awareness “had posted dazzling returns by using leverage to bet on AI-related stocks, reportedly tallying a more than 2,000% gain since its launch in September 2024.”
Tags: AI, Bet, Dazzling, Gain, Hedge-fund, Leverage, Losses, Market, Offloading, Public-equity portfolio, Remarkable, Returns, Situational Awareness, Stocks, Stretcher, U.S., Wildest, Wunderkind
New York Times (July 28)
“Chipmakers are taking a hit” on a number of fronts. “Investors worry that Big Tech’s extravagant artificial intelligence spending isn’t delivering real profits yet.” Moreover, “powerful open-weight models are making A.I. cheaper to run, raising questions about whether companies need to keep buying such expensive tech, including chips.” The chipmakers still have “huge long-term investment build-out commitments from major tech players,” which raises a major question. “Is this just a healthy reset for a hot market, or the start of a bigger slowdown?”
Tags: AI, Big tech, Build-out commitments, Cheaper, Chipmakers, Expensive, Extravagant, Hit, Investment, Investors, Market, Open-weight models, Profits, Reset, Spending, Worry
The Economist (July 4)
“We woz wrong about oil. The market bested us…. There is no shame in that. We stick our neck out and consequently risk having it chopped from time to time.” This is one of those times. Before May, “we said oil traders were in ‘la-la land’ thinking that oil prices would fall to $88 by the end of the year. Today Brent crude costs just over $70 a barrel. Our prediction went about as well as the war.”
Tags: $70 bbl, $88 bbl, Brent crude, La-la land, Market, Oil, Oil prices, Prediction, Shame, Traders
New York Times (June 27)
“Over the past 24 hours, prices have dipped below the levels not seen since Feb. 27, the eve of the war in Iran, when Brent crude settled at $72.48 a barrel.” The sharp drop is attributable to “increased optimism that a deal would be reached to enable more regular shipping flows through the strait.” And a lot of “oil coming through the strait is poised to hit the market all at once, putting downward pressure on prices.” The I.E.A. believes there could even be a glut next year as “global demand is expected to drop by almost five million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2026 partly because consumers scaled back their energy use during the conflict.”
Tags: Brent crude, Consumers, Dipped, Downward pressure, Energy use, Global demand, Glut, I.E.A., Iran, Market, Oil, Optimism, Prices, Shipping flows, Strait, War
Barron’s (May 14)
“If we’re lucky, this week’s summit in Beijing won’t produce any shocking headlines on Iran, Taiwan, or any of the other prickly issues that divide the U.S. and China.” Instead, Trump “should surprise Xi with an offer to open the U.S. market to Chinese cars.” This would “stabilize the relationship with China, relieve the affordability squeeze back home, and re-energize his grumbling electoral base.” Trump only has two choices. “He can watch as Chinese cars are sold everywhere except America, or he can allow them to be made in America, by Americans.”
Tags: Affordability, Beijing, China, Chinese cars, Grumbling, Iran, Made in America, Market, Stabilize, Summit, Taiwan, U.S., Xi
Barron’s (February 11)
“The U.S. Treasury market has been awfully steady lately. It’s a blessing for the economy and stocks. The 10-year Treasury note —a key debt issued by the U.S. government—has traded in a 0.39 percentage point range over the past six months, its narrowest since October 2018, according to Dow Jones Market data team.”
Tags: 0.39, 2018, Blessing, Debt, Economy, Government, Market, Narrowest, Range, Steady, Stocks, Treasury, U.S.
Barron’s (January 27)
“Japan is the market’s ‘Big Story.’” Proposals for a “looser fiscal policy” have resulted in “big moves in the yen and Japanese government bonds that have investors increasingly on edge around the world.” Now all eyes are on the 40-year JGB auction, which really “matters for U.S. and European investors. If prices fall, sending yields higher it, it could make Japanese bonds attractive enough for local investors to move money invested abroad back to Japan.”
Tags: 40 year, Abroad, Europe, Investors, Japan, JGBs, Looser fiscal policy, Market, Money, Prices, U.S., Yen, Yields
OilPrice.com (November 24)
“The international crude benchmark, Brent, could dip to the $30s per barrel handle by 2027 as oversupply could overwhelm the market, according to a JP Morgan forecast.” That is, however, beyond current consensus. “Despite the fears of a glut, analysts and investment banks don’t see oil prices moving down to $40 or below, even as oil is set to decline in the near term with strong supply from OPEC+ and the non-OPEC producers in the Americas.”
Tags: $30, $40, 2027, Analysts, Benchmark, Brent, Consensus, Crude, Fears, Forecast, Glut, Investment banks, JP Morgan, Market, Oil prices
The Economist (November 19)
“In America’s foundation myths, the humble mortgage rarely features.” Though uncelebrated, housing loans have driven “the American dream, which centres on home ownership, ever since the federal government began subsidising property loans a century ago,” but their power is waning. “America’s huge mortgage market is slowly dying” and “Donald Trump’s remedies threaten to inflame a housing crisis.”
Tags: American dream, Dying, Foundation myths, Government, Home ownership, Housing crisis, Humble, Loans, Market, Mortgage, Property, Remedies, Trump, U.S., Uncelebrated
Bloomberg (October 10)
“Betting against the dollar has been the dominant trade this year in the $9.6 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market, but the wager is starting to stumble. The world’s primary reserve currency is around a two-month high even as the US government shutdown drags on, and traders in Asia and Europe say hedge funds are adding options bets that the rebound versus most major peers will extend into year-end.”
Tags: $9.6 trillion, Asia, Dollar, Dominant, Forex, Government, Hedge funds, Market, Options bets, Rebound, Reserve currency, Shutdown, Stumble, Trade, Traders, Two-month high, U.S.
