Barron’s (January 27)
“Japan is the market’s ‘Big Story.’” Proposals for a “looser fiscal policy” have resulted in “big moves in the yen and Japanese government bonds that have investors increasingly on edge around the world.” Now all eyes are on the 40-year JGB auction, which really “matters for U.S. and European investors. If prices fall, sending yields higher it, it could make Japanese bonds attractive enough for local investors to move money invested abroad back to Japan.”
Tags: 40 year, Abroad, Europe, Investors, Japan, JGBs, Looser fiscal policy, Market, Money, Prices, U.S., Yen, Yields
OilPrice.com (November 24)
“The international crude benchmark, Brent, could dip to the $30s per barrel handle by 2027 as oversupply could overwhelm the market, according to a JP Morgan forecast.” That is, however, beyond current consensus. “Despite the fears of a glut, analysts and investment banks don’t see oil prices moving down to $40 or below, even as oil is set to decline in the near term with strong supply from OPEC+ and the non-OPEC producers in the Americas.”
Tags: $30, $40, 2027, Analysts, Benchmark, Brent, Consensus, Crude, Fears, Forecast, Glut, Investment banks, JP Morgan, Market, Oil prices
The Economist (November 19)
“In America’s foundation myths, the humble mortgage rarely features.” Though uncelebrated, housing loans have driven “the American dream, which centres on home ownership, ever since the federal government began subsidising property loans a century ago,” but their power is waning. “America’s huge mortgage market is slowly dying” and “Donald Trump’s remedies threaten to inflame a housing crisis.”
Tags: American dream, Dying, Foundation myths, Government, Home ownership, Housing crisis, Humble, Loans, Market, Mortgage, Property, Remedies, Trump, U.S., Uncelebrated
Bloomberg (October 10)
“Betting against the dollar has been the dominant trade this year in the $9.6 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market, but the wager is starting to stumble. The world’s primary reserve currency is around a two-month high even as the US government shutdown drags on, and traders in Asia and Europe say hedge funds are adding options bets that the rebound versus most major peers will extend into year-end.”
Tags: $9.6 trillion, Asia, Dollar, Dominant, Forex, Government, Hedge funds, Market, Options bets, Rebound, Reserve currency, Shutdown, Stumble, Trade, Traders, Two-month high, U.S.
Market Watch (July 14)
In contrast with previous guidance, Goldman Sachs now expects U.S. home prices to grow only 0.5% in 2025 and 1.2% the following year, “a huge drop from the growth the market saw during the pandemic.” Goldman cited “three big reasons for its pessimism regarding home prices: slowing prices, rising housing supply and persistently high mortgage rates.”
Tags: 0.5%, 2025, Drop, Goldman Sachs, Growth, Guidance, Home prices, Housing supply, Market, Pandemic, Pessimism, Slowing, U.S.
WARC (June 13)
“Alphabet, Amazon and Meta dominate the advertising market outside China: they’re set to account for 54.7% of that total in 2025 – equivalent to $524.4bn – rising to 56.2% in 2026. The introduction of AI stands to disrupt some ad revenue models, particularly in search, but Google’s dominance of that market will likely persist in the near term,” according to WARC’s Global Ad Forecast Q2 2025.
Tags: $524.4bn, 2025, 2026, Ad revenue, Advertising market, AI, Alphabet, Amazon, China, Disrupt, Dominance, Dominate, Global Ad Forecast, Google, Market, Meta, Persist
Wall Street Journal (May 7)
“Just as other countries need U.S. help against China, the reverse is also true.” President Trump himself, however, stands “in the way” of constructing such a “new trading system…. He simply doesn’t make much distinction between China and allies: They’re all ‘ripping us off.’” The President’s “willingness to hit friendly nations with tariffs, cozy up to Russia and threaten allies like Denmark and Canada has deeply undermined allies’ trust. With the U.S. closing its market, others are more reluctant than ever to push China away.“
Tags: Allies, Canada, China, Denmark, Friendly nations, Market, Reluctant, Tariffs, Threaten, Trading system, Trump, Trust, U.S., Undermined
Investment Week (April 26)
“The gold price – which is often seen as a measure of how anxious investors are feeling – has hit 25 record highs already this year, ranking 2025 third in terms of total of gold price spikes since 1968…. This means that in less than four months, investors have sought out ‘safety’ at a lightning-fast pace.” While some investors are cheered by the recent market respite, they should not pin “their investment case on the ‘hope’ that Trump reneges on his plans just because that seems like the sensible thing to do when we have been shown, repeatedly, that just because the market wants it, it does not mean it will be so.” Investors will likely “have to deal with four more years of paper-thin reliability when it comes to the US.”
Tags: Anxious, Deal, Gold, Investment, Investors, Lightning-fast, Market, Pace, Record highs, Reliability, Reneges, Safety, Sensible, Spikes
Fortune (April 14)
“President Donald Trump’s trade war with China could lead to the end of globalization. But it’s not a certainty that the U.S. will emerge as the victor in the new economic world order.” Goldman Sachs posits “the U.S. may find it’s more reliant on China than the other way around.” Chinese imports account for 14% of total U.S. imports. Meanwhile, U.S. exports to China make up only 6% of total Chinese imports. The U.S. is also highly dependent on $158 billion worth of Chinese imports, whereas China’s relies highly on the U.S. for only $14 billion worth of goods. In these cases, the highly dependent import goods account for 70% or more of the market.
Tags: $14 billion, $158 billion, China, Dependent, Economic, Globalization, Goldman Sachs, Goods, Imports, Market, Trade war, Trump, U.S., Victor, World order
The Economist (April 10)
“For a good few hours on April 9th, disaster beckoned. Share prices had been falling for weeks. Then the market for American Treasury bonds—normally among the safest assets available—started convulsing, too. The yield on ten-year Treasuries leapt to 4.5%…. That meant bond prices, which move inversely to yields, had cratered. The failure of both risky and supposedly safe assets at once threatened to destabilise the financial system itself.”
Tags: April 9, Bonds, Convulsing, Cratered, Destabilise, Disaster, Failure, Financial system, Market, Risky, Safe assets, Share prices, Threatened, Treasuries, U.S., Yield
