Institutional Investor (December 31)
“The market is on pace this year to nearly double its five-year annualized returns of 15.7 percent,” but can this last? “Despite the market euphoria over Republican wins, Trump’s intent to goose an already healthy economy and challenge international agreements may result in more uncertainty and volatility.”
Tags: 15.7%, Double, Economy, Euphoria, international agreements, Market, Republican, Returns, Trump, Uncertainty, Volatility
U.S. News and World Report (December 30)
“The past two years have defied economists’ predictions for a slowing economy, or even a recession.” Despite increased risk and uncertainty arising from the “wild card of Trump,” the U.S. economy “should remain strong” as it is buoyed by “a moderating labor market, lower interest rates and strong household income.” Household wealth has surged 40% to $150 trillion since 2020, “while debt service payments measured as a percentage of income have largely remained static.”
Tags: Defied, Economy, Household income, Interest rates, Labor market, Predictions, Recession, Risk, Slowing Economy, Trump, U.S., Uncertainty, Wealth Debt service, Wild card
New York Times (December 26)
“Despite lingering inflation, Americans increased their spending this holiday season, early data shows. That comes as a big relief for retailers that had spent much of the year fearing the economy would soon weaken and consumer spending would fall. Year on year, “retail sales from Nov. 1 to Dec. 24 increased 3.1 percent.”
Tags: Consumer spending, Economy, Fearing, Holiday season, Increased, Inflation, Lingering, Relief, Retail sales, Retailers, Weaken
Barron’s (December 23)
Brazil ends 2024 in a paradox. The economy is strong with GDP expected to “reach 3% for the third year running. Unemployment is at a record low and the trade surplus at an all-time high.” Nevertheless, “markets are awful.” Investors appear to be “looking past the healthy present to a recurrence of Brazil’s chronic economic disease: excessive government spending that spurs runaway inflation and crowds out growth with debt payments.”
Tags: 2024, Brazil, Chronic, Debt payments, Economy, GDP, Government spending, Growth, Investors, Markets, Paradox, Recurrence, Runaway inflation, Trade surplus, Unemployment
MSN (December 20)
“The smooth economy that Donald Trump was poised to inherit suddenly looks a bit rockier — with critics saying the president-elect is contributing to the uncertainty.” After 10 days of losses, the DJSI “essentially ended Thursday flat” and the Federal Reserve “has become cautious about further interest rate cuts planned for next year” amid persistent inflation.
Tags: Cautious, DJSI, Economy, Fed, Flat, Interest rate cuts, Losses, Persistent inflation, President-elect, Rockier, Smooth, Trump, Uncertainty
Financial Times (December 10)
“Global public debt is set to exceed $100tn by the end of this year” according to IMF estimates, “with total government borrowing set to approach 100 per cent of global GDP by the end of the decade.” This development led the outgoing chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements to warn that “rising government debt levels will cause turbulence in the global economy and financial markets unless political leaders start tackling them soon.”
Tags: $100tn, BIS, Borrowing, Chief economist, Debt levels, Economy, Financial markets, GDP, Global, Government, IMF, Political leaders, Public debt, Turbulence
Financial Times (December 3)
“America’s economy is soaring ahead of its rivals,” and its “outperformance is rooted in long-term productivity growth that is the envy of the developed world.” Many of these productivity gains are coming from tech investments. “China is the only other large economy making significant strides in tech R&D spending…. the amount of venture capital invested in AI in China is now the second highest globally after the US.”
Tags: AI, China, Developed world, Economy, Envy, Investments, Outperformance, Productivity growth, R&D spending, Rivals, Soaring, Tech, U.S., VC
Barron’s (December 2)
“Japan was conspicuously not mentioned” in tariffs Trump has specified for countries including China. This leaves some “wondering if China has become the new Japan and Japan is the new China.” Will China’s “economy stagnate over a sustained period, like Japan’s did for decades, and become a market to avoid?” In contrast, “Japan has shown signs of life lately. It’s viewed favorably by the new administration…. Does that mean the land of the rising sun is once again on the rise?”
Tags: Avoid, China, Conspicuously, Economy, Favorably, Japan, Market, New administration, Rising sun, Stagnate, Tariffs, Trump
WARC (November 19)
“More shoppers, GMV growth and the growing role of AI was the Singles Day story from Alibaba and JD.com, but the wider economy continues to feel the impact of China’s property slowdown.”
Tags: AI, Alibaba, China, Economy, GMV, Growth, Impact, JD.com, Property, Shoppers, Singles Day, Slowdown
Fortune (November 11)
“Russia’s inflation has gone from bad to worse as it continues to wage war against Ukraine, causing even everyday goods to feel out of reach for the average person.” For example, “the price of a slab of butter has increased by 25.7% since December, prompting a slew of thefts across Russia and highlighting the state of the wartime economy.” To prevent shoplifting, supermarkets and retailers are now “attaching anti-theft tags to cans of meat… butter and other grocery staples.”
Tags: Anti-theft tags, Butter, Economy, Grocery, Inflation, Meat, Price, Retailers, Russia, Shoplifting, Supermarkets, Thefts, Ukraine, War
