South China Morning Post (June 15)
“Japan is falling into a trap in defending its currency against the US dollar, like Thailand in 1996. Japan’s large forex reserves make the yen a juicy target, rather than deterring currency predators. Its fundamentals are weak and deteriorating, making the yen’s further decline inevitable.”
Tags: 1996. Forex reserves, Currency, Decline, Defending, Deteriorating, Dollar, Fundamentals, Japan, Predators, Target, Thailand, Trap, U.S., Weak, Yen
South China Morning Post (April 20)
A “Hormuz moment” might signal the “decline of US dominance.” Citic Securities analysts are comparing the unfolding situation in Iran to the “Suez moment,” when Great Britain “lost control of the Suez Canal along with its global superpower status.” On Saturday, the analysts wrote “that a similarly consequential ‘Hormuz moment’ could be a watershed for America’s global supremacy.” In fact, Citic posits “the global order may have already undergone subtle but significant changes.”
Tags: Analysts, Citic Securities, Consequential, Control, Decline, Dominance, Hormuz moment, Iran, Suez Canal, Superpower status, Supremacy, U.S., UK, Unfolding, Watershed
Barron’s (November 10)
“The longest government shutdown on record may be nearing its conclusion, and U.S. stocks are likely to claw back a big chunk of last week’s decline.” But end of the shutdown is “a band-aid, not a cure” for markets. “The long, and likely volatile path to reopening the federal government…will only mask the major issues investors are grappling with heading into the final weeks of the trading year, and the stock market could break in either direction once some of those questions are addressed.”
Tags: Band-aid, Cure, Decline, Government, Investors, Longest, Record, Shutdown, Stock market, Stocks, Trading, U.S., Volatile
CNBC (November 7)
“Worries over the government shutdown surged in the early part of November, pushing consumer sentiment to its lowest in more than three years and just off its worst level ever.” The most recent University of Michigan “Index of Consumer Sentiment posted a reading of 50.3 for the month, indicating a decline of 6.2% on the month and about 30% from a year ago…. November’s reading was the second lowest going back to at least 1978.”
Tags: 1978, 50.3, Consumer sentiment, Decline, Government shutdown, Lowest, November, Surged, University of Michigan, Worries, Worst level
Wall Street Journal (July 21)
“While no recession has been yet forecast, economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025” based on a larger than expected decline in leading economic indicators. “The U.S. economy is set to slow… with the impact of tariffs becoming more pronounced in the second half of the year through higher prices.”
Tags: 2025, Decline, Economic growth, Forecast, Higher prices, Impact, Leading economic indicators, Recession, Second half, Slow, Tariffs, U.S.
Investment Week (July 11)
The UK was the “fastest growing G7 economy in Q1 2025, but this memory now seems distant. “Industry professionals have reacted with disappointment to the latest monthly UK GDP figures for May, which showed the economy contracted by 0.1%,” following on top of April’s 0.3% decline. Production output tumbled, “falling by 0.9% after an unchanged fall of 0.6% in April, while the construction sector dipped by 0.6% in May from a 0.8% growth the month before.”
Tags: April, Construction, Contracted, Decline, Disappointment, Fastest-growing, G7 economy, GDP, May, Output, Production, Q1 2025, Tumbled, UK
Bloomberg (April 30)
“Donald Trump was elected on a pledge to fix all kinds of problems confronting the US economy, from stubborn inflation to a long-term decline in manufacturing jobs. He’s already declared that he’s off to the greatest start of a presidential term ever. The numbers don’t back him up.”
Tags: Decline, Economy, Elected, Greatest start, Inflation, Manufacturing jobs, Numbers, Pledge, Problems, Trump, U.S.
Barron’s (March 17)
“They’ve gone from the Mag Seven to the Lag Seven.” Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon.com, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Tesla collectively represented over “half of the S& P 500’s gain of 23% in 2024 as they rose an average of 60%.” This year they are “down an average of 15%” and “now account for about 95% of the index’s decline of 6% in 2025.” However, the Mag Seven “aren’t destined to fail or fade into insignificance. They remain too dominant…and too reasonably priced, with six of the seven trading for 18 to 30 times projected 2025 earnings. (Tesla, at 85 times, is the notable exception.)”
Tags: 2024, 2025, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Apple, Decline, Dominant, Earnings, Fade, Fail, Lag Seven, Mag Seven, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, Reasonably priced, S&P 500, Tesla
Financial Times (February 27)
Although “some demographic experts had been hopeful of a pent-up baby boom in Japan following the pandemic,” 2024 confirmed the worst. “The number of babies born in Japan last year fell to the lowest level since records began 125 years ago as the country’s demographic crisis deepens and government efforts to reverse the decline continue to fail.” For nine years straight, “the decline in births has continued unabated…. Combined with a record 1.6mn deaths last year, the figures mean Japan’s population shrank by almost 900,000 people, net of immigration.”
Tags: 2024, Babies, Baby boom, Births, Deaths, Decline, Demographic crisis, Experts, Fail, Government, Immigration, Japan, Pandemic, Pent-up, Population, Record
Reuters (March 3)
“Europe’s dark defence picture has a bright side. President Donald Trump’s hostility to erstwhile U.S. allies in Europe… has scrambled the continent’s security arrangements. Yet leaders who gathered in London on Sunday have a consolation of sorts: the pressure to rapidly rearm gives them cover to hike taxes.” They can now “legitimately tell their populations that everything has changed. There’s a solid long-term argument for Europeans to make a bigger contribution to their security. It’s a silver lining for an otherwise gloomy outlook.”
Tags: Car dealers, Cold weather, Decline, Drop, Economists, Environment, Indoors, Perilous, Rebound, Retail sales, Retailers, Tariff threats, Trump, U.S.
