Fortune (January 11)
“2026 begins with sharper risks for China: Geopolitical uncertainty, a struggling real estate sector, strained public finances, and elevated youth unemployment. Yet what draws companies to China—scale, innovation, and global influence— remain as compelling as ever.” The economics have changed and competition has increased. Success now requires greater discipline, but “for global businesses prepared to operate with this level of discipline, China can still be a lucrative market in the Year of the Horse.”
Tags: 2026, China, Competition, Discipline, Geopolitical uncertainty, Global influence, Innovation, Lucrative, Public finances, Real estate, Risks, Scale, Struggling, Year of the Horse, Youth unemployment
New York Times (September 16)
“While other countries have scrambled to meet President Trump’s demands to strike deals for reduced tariffs, China has kept to its own timetable.” The costly price has been a 15% drop in “China’s exports to the United States… so far this year.” China has successfully offset this with surging exports to other countries, but robust exports are “masking weakness in other parts of its economy. A persistent real estate downturn has wrecked [sic] havoc on the economy. Consumers are spending less, while joblessness among young people remains a major problem. China is also dealing with a stubborn deflationary spiral, spurred by overproduction in key industries and price wars.” Still, given its degree of media control, the Chinese government does not appear anxious about negotiating a trade deal with the U.S.
Tags: China, Consumers, Deals, Deflationary spiral, Demands, Downturn, Economy, Exports, Havoc, Joblessness, Overproduction, Price wars, Real estate, Spending, Surging, Tariffs, Trump, U.S., Weakness
Institutional Investor (April 15)
“Whether passively or actively managed, the REIT industry has not been able to avoid sharp slowdowns every decade or so. In the present downturn, publicly traded REITs can be acquired at a substantial discount to their net asset value. That means it has actually become cheaper to buy real estate through a REIT than to purchase the properties directly.” The sector seems primed for consolidation and “the likely dropouts” include “REITs that took on too much debt when commercial real estate roared ahead and got into trouble when the cycle spun downward.”
Tags: Acquired, Cheaper, Commercial real estate, Consolidation, Cycle, Debt, Discount, Downturn, NAV, Passively. Actively managed, Properties, Real estate, REIT industry, Slowdowns
Financial Times (May 27)
“What industry could replace” real estate “as the main driver of growth in China?” The automobile industry may look promising, but it’s a mere fraction of the size and creates other problems. China’s massive manufacturing sector already “exceeds domestic demand and expanding exports would encounter more trade friction with other countries.” Education and healthcare, on the other hand, have received insufficient spending. These areas would present the market with business opportunities and bring “substantial potential for growth” to the Chinese economy.
Tags: Automobile, China, Demand, Domestic, Education, Exports, Growth, Healthcare, Industry, Manufacturing, Real estate, Sector, Trade friction
Wall Street Journal (April 17)
Marking “a sharp reversal” from years of “bolstering their office footprints,” Big Tech is now “downsizing workspace in another blow to office real estate.” Especially hard hit, “San Francisco’s office-vacancy rate hit a record 36.7% in the first quarter,” roughly ten times worse than early 2019 when it stood at 3.6%.
Tags: 2019, 3.6%, 36.7%, Big tech, Downsizing, Footprints, Office, Real estate, Record, Reversal, San Francisco, Vacancy, Workspace
New York Times (March 14)
Some now fear an “urban doom loop.” Cities are encountering budget crunches brought on by “steep discounts” in office and commercial real estate “as the pandemic trends of hybrid and remote work have persisted.” Cities are “starting to bear the brunt.” Budgets once reliant “on taxes associated with valuable commercial property are now facing shortfalls and contemplating cutbacks as lower assessments of property values reduce tax bills.” Cutting services or raising taxes could make cities less attractive, inducing urban flight and further exacerbating city budgets.
Tags: Budgets, Cities, Commercial, Cutbacks, Discounts, Fear, Hybrid, Office, Pandemic, Property, Real estate, Remote, Services, Shortfalls, Tax, Urban doom loop
Wall Street Journal (February 7)
“Luxury retailers, flush with cash, are spending big on real estate in the world’s most expensive and exclusive shopping corridors” including New York’s Fifth Avenue, Avenue Montaigne in Paris, and London’s New Bond Street. The “shopping spree shows that retailers are using their considerable cash to free themselves from the control of landlords and plant their flags on streets where they want a long-term presence.”
Tags: Avenue Montaigne, Cash, Exclusive, Expensive, Fifth Avenue, Flush, Landlords, London, Luxury retailers, New Bond Street, New York, Paris, Real estate, Shopping corridors
BBC (January 28)
“Debt-ridden Chinese property giant Evergrande has been ordered to liquidate by a court in Hong Kong.” Evergrande initially “sent shockwaves through global financial markets” when it defaulted in 2021. Since then, it has remained “the poster child of China’s real estate crisis with over $325bn (£256bn) of liabilities.” The most recent court decision does not necessarily mean “Evergrande will go bust and collapse,” but it is expected “to send ripples through China’s financial markets at a time when authorities are trying to curb a stock market sell-off.”
Tags: 2021, China, Collapse, Court, Crisis, Debt-ridden, Defaulted, Evergrande, Financial markets, Hong Kong, Liabilities, Liquidate, Real estate, Ripples, Shockwaves
Wall Street Journal (November 13)
“Foreclosures are surging in an opaque and risky corner of commercial real-estate finance, offering one of the starkest signs yet that turmoil in the property market is worsening.” Through just October, the Journal found notices for “mezzanine loans and other high-risk loans” had already more than doubled the number for all of 2022 and likely reached “the highest total ever for a single year, as higher interest rates and rising vacancies punish the property sector.”
Tags: Commercial, Finance, Foreclosures, Highest, Interest rates, Mezzanine loans, Property market, Real estate, Risky, Surging, Turmoil, Worsening
Irish Times (September 10)
Some are hoping government stimulus will jumpstart the Chinese economy. “The more likely scenario is continued weak growth.” What remains to be seen is “is how quickly the government will shift away from stimulus measures to a faster fundamental overhaul of its growth strategy.” China needs to tackle “more persistent and structural growth challenges,” which have resulted from “an economic strategy that has historically over-relied on real estate, high local debt, inefficient state-owned enterprises, lower-end manufacturing, and domestic consumer internet platforms.”
Tags: Challenges, China, Economy, Government, Growth strategy, Inefficient, Jumpstart, Manufacturing, Overhaul, Persistent, Real estate, State-owned enterprises, Stimulus, Structural, Weak
