Bloomberg (June 29)
“With just 10 days to go until President Donald Trump’s country-specific tariffs are set to resume, the White House appears poised to fall short of the sweeping global trade reforms it promised to achieve during the three months they were on hold.” It is unclear what will happen to the tariffs at the point. The President’s unpredictable approach may gain “concessions from trading partners,” but “the erratic effort has injected uncertainty into the financial markets, and created anxiety for domestic businesses. The lack of clarity around the deadline heightens the tension.”
Tags: 10 days, Anxiety, Approach, Businesses, Clarity, Concessions, Deadline, Erratic, Financial markets, Global trade, Promised, Reforms, Resume, Tariffs, Tension, Trading partners, Trump, Uncertainty, Unpredictable
Traders Magazine (April 30)
“As global financial markets face mounting volatility and exponential growth in data and message traffic, infrastructure resilience has become a cornerstone of stability. Global market infrastructure is facing unprecedented stress tests, not from system failures, but from the relentless pace of data and messaging traffic, regulatory complexity, and volatile geopolitical conditions.” Essentially, this “means building systems to handle two or even three times their previous peak volume—ensuring not only capacity but also continuity during high-stress events.”
Tags: Capacity, Continuity, Data, Exponential growth, Financial markets, Geopolitical, Global, Market infrastructure, Message traffic, Peak volume, Regulatory complexity, Resilience, Stability, Stress tests, System failures, Volatility
Financial Times (December 10)
“Global public debt is set to exceed $100tn by the end of this year” according to IMF estimates, “with total government borrowing set to approach 100 per cent of global GDP by the end of the decade.” This development led the outgoing chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements to warn that “rising government debt levels will cause turbulence in the global economy and financial markets unless political leaders start tackling them soon.”
Tags: $100tn, BIS, Borrowing, Chief economist, Debt levels, Economy, Financial markets, GDP, Global, Government, IMF, Political leaders, Public debt, Turbulence
Bloomberg (December 4)
President Yoon’s short-lived imposition of martial law “sparked chaos… sending the won and South Korea-related exchange-traded funds sharply lower overnight. While extreme jitters dissipated as financial authorities swiftly vowed to provide ‘unlimited liquidity,’ damage has been done to investor perception of South Korea’s financial markets.” The episode is “a setback to the nation’s ongoing push for upgrades to developed market status in global indexes.”
Tags: Chaos, Damage, ETFs, Financial authorities, Financial markets, Global indexes, Investor perception, Jitters, Martial law, South Korea, Status, Unlimited liquidity, Won, Yoon
Financial Times (September 10)
“Central bankers on both shores of the Atlantic are under pressure from many sides — political circles, financial markets, public opinion — to cut interest rates.” But the European Central Bank (ECB) faces distinctly different circumstances than the Fed or BoE. The ECB has already cut rates to 3.75 per cent, which “is already a solid 1.5 percentage points below” the Fed’s rate and inflation is less controlled. “The ECB has no room to cut rates.” It should “maintain a moderately restrictive stance on monetary policy to make further progress on inflation.”
Tags: 3.75%, BOE, Central bankers, ECB, Fed, Financial markets, Inflation, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Political, Pressure, Public opinion, Restrictive
Market Watch (July 26)
“The selloff in U.S. semiconductor and megacap stocks has sucked up most of investors’ attention over the past couple of weeks. But they aren’t the only momentum trades that have stopped working. Across financial markets, bets that had reliably minted profits all year have come undone in July.”
Tags: Bets, Financial markets, Investors, July, Megacap, Momentum trades, Profits, Selloff, Semiconductor, Stocks, U.S., Undone
The Economist (May 4)
“It is easy for investors to lose a fortune in the financial markets—and even easier for governments.” When Japan tried to prop up the yen in 2022, the nation “spent more than $60bn of its foreign-exchange reserves,” but supporting a currency “is expensive and futile.” Since breaking the ¥160/$1 barrier, there are rumors of another intervention. As long as the giant interest rate gap exists with the U.S., Japan would be “wrong to try to prop up the yen.”
Tags: $60bn, ¥160/$1, 2022, Currency, Expensive, Financial markets, Forex, Futile, Governments, Interest rate, Intervention, Investors, Japan, Reserves, Yen
BBC (January 28)
“Debt-ridden Chinese property giant Evergrande has been ordered to liquidate by a court in Hong Kong.” Evergrande initially “sent shockwaves through global financial markets” when it defaulted in 2021. Since then, it has remained “the poster child of China’s real estate crisis with over $325bn (£256bn) of liabilities.” The most recent court decision does not necessarily mean “Evergrande will go bust and collapse,” but it is expected “to send ripples through China’s financial markets at a time when authorities are trying to curb a stock market sell-off.”
Tags: 2021, China, Collapse, Court, Crisis, Debt-ridden, Defaulted, Evergrande, Financial markets, Hong Kong, Liabilities, Liquidate, Real estate, Ripples, Shockwaves
Wall Street Journal (October 31)
“Monetary policy officials are hinting to financial markets that the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates—even as the Fed signals that it is too early to declare victory over inflation. Wary investors can only speculate, while market analysts are happy to guess the Fed’s next move.”
Tags: Analysts, Federal Reserve, Financial markets, Hinting, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Monetary policy, Officials, Signals, Speculate, Victory, Wary
Bloomberg (January 21)
“In a week marked by fresh recession angst from Wall Street to Davos, JPMorgan Chase & Co. finds the odds of an economic downturn priced into financial markets have actually fallen sharply from their 2022 highs.” In October, “a contraction was effectively seen as a done deal across markets.” Now, “according to the firm’s trading model, seven of nine asset classes from high-grade bonds to European stocks now show less than a 50% chance of a recession. That’s a big reversal.”
Tags: Angst, Asset classes, Bonds, Contraction, Davos, Economic downturn, Financial markets, JPMorgan Chase, Recession, Stocks, Trading model, Wall Street
