Bloomberg Businessweek (May edition)
“For decades, global economic crises have prompted the world to band together.” Such a “coordinated response” looks unlikely today. “As central bankers and heads of state contemplate the potential fallout from the Iran war and the biggest energy crunch in half a century… it looks increasingly unlikely there’ll be another spurt of unified action. The spirit of cooperation is no longer there…. After years of responding to economic shock after economic shock, we’ve been left woefully unprepared to deal with another one.”
Tags: Central bankers, Cooperation, Coordinated response, Economic crises, Energy crunch, Global, Heads of state, Iran war, Potential fallout, Unified action
Reuters (December 5)
“Assets that rise rapidly above their long-term trend are usually set for a fall…. This year, gold has risen more than 60% in dollar terms, its best performance in 46 years. Adjusted for inflation, gold has never been more expensive. Either we are witnessing another bubble or it’s a paradigm shift.” It may be the latter as speculative euphoria has focused on cryptocurrencies while “central bankers have significantly increased their gold holdings.”
Tags: $60, Assets, Bubble, Central bankers, Cryptocurrencies, Dollar, Expensive, Fall, Gold, Holdings, Inflation, Paradigm shift, Performance, Speculative, Trend
Financial Times (September 10)
“Central bankers on both shores of the Atlantic are under pressure from many sides — political circles, financial markets, public opinion — to cut interest rates.” But the European Central Bank (ECB) faces distinctly different circumstances than the Fed or BoE. The ECB has already cut rates to 3.75 per cent, which “is already a solid 1.5 percentage points below” the Fed’s rate and inflation is less controlled. “The ECB has no room to cut rates.” It should “maintain a moderately restrictive stance on monetary policy to make further progress on inflation.”
Tags: 3.75%, BOE, Central bankers, ECB, Fed, Financial markets, Inflation, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Political, Pressure, Public opinion, Restrictive
Bloomberg (July 28)
“Bond traders who’ve set themselves up for gradual interest-rate cuts starting in September are ramping up side bets in case a sudden slide in the US economy forces the Federal Reserve to be even more aggressive.” A minimum of two quarter-point rate reductions are priced in for the year and “some traders have gone even further with wagers that pay off if central bankers go bold and deliver a half-point cut in mid-September — or start lowering rates sooner.”
Tags: Aggressive, Bond traders, Central bankers, Economy, Fed, Half-point, Interest, Quarter-point, Rate cuts, September, Slide, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (November 7)
“The global recovery—while still robust—is at a precarious point, with the risk of missteps.” A recent survey shows “Only about a fifth of businesses judge that the worst of the supply-chain disruptions has passed,” complicating strategy for executives. Meanwhile, central bankers “are trying to chart a path that will curb inflation but not choke off growth as they navigate the process of weaning economies” from extraordinary support.
Tags: Central bankers, Disruptions, Executives, Extraordinary, Global, Growth, Inflation, Missteps, Precarious, Recovery, Risk, Robust, Strategy, Supply chain, Weaning
Reuters (October 21)
“Current debates about inflation are mostly concerned with how long it will persist. Will inflation be transitory, as the central bankers insist? Or will consumer prices continue rising for years to come, as the bond bears maintain?” The blind spot seems to be a consideration of “how today’s highly financialised modern economies are likely to respond to a change in the inflation regime.”
Tags: Bears, Blindspot, Bond, Central bankers, Consumer prices, Debates, Inflation, Modern economies, Persist, Response, Transitory
Financial Times (October 8)
“High levels of inflation could last longer than expected, senior central bankers in Europe have warned, signalling that persistent supply-chain bottlenecks and soaring energy costs could advance a tightening of monetary policy.”
Tags: Bottlenecks, Central bankers, Energy costs, Europe, Expected, Inflation, Persistent, Supply chain, Tightening, Warned
Forbes (July 9)
“Investors seem willing to bet that the near-term winner of the trade war is Trump. However, the detrimental effects of an escalating trade war are being considered by central bankers here and in Europe. The negative impact mainly comes from a worsening in business sentiment and corporate investment.”
Tags: Business sentiment, Central bankers, Corporate investment, Europe, Investors, Negative impact, Trade war, Trump, U.S., Winner
Bloomberg (August 19)
The annual meeting of central bankers kicks off this week in Jackson Hole and it’s worth paying attention. “Central bankers, a group of largely independent technocrats, wield more power over the fates of politicians, investors and regular folk than ever before. In the absence of government action, they are bearing most of the burden of supporting economic recoveries in the U.S. and Europe. With their bond purchases and other unconventional policies, they have become a major force holding up financial markets around the world.”
Tags: Bond purchases, Central bankers, Economic recoveries, Europe, Financial markets, Government, Investors, Jackson Hole, Politicians, Power, U.S.
Financial Times (October 8)
“The Federal Reserve’s new round of quantitative easing may stall the dollar’s long term appreciation but it will not reverse it.” The dollar is being driven higher by four fundamentals: 1). The growing U.S. economy 2). The safe-haven status of U.S. bond markets 3). The shale gas revolution reducing U.S. dependence on imported energy 4). The determination of other central bankers not to let their national currencies appreciate. QE3 merely “presents headwinds to the dollar’s favourable fundamentals.”
Tags: Central bankers, Dollar, Economy, Fed, QE3, Safe haven, Shale gas, U.S.
