Market Watch (September 6)
“The U.S.’s status as a financial safe haven has begun to clash with President Trump’s growing barrage of economic and military threats to advance his agenda.” There seems be a common fear behind the Netherland’s recent withdrawal of reserve gold from the U.S., the drawdowns of France and Germany’s U.S.-based reserves, and a current plan in Norway to cut Treasury holdings. Basically, what’s to stop Trump from simply seizing their assets? His “sweeping tariff fight shocked the world last year. Then came the capture in January of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, February’s launch of the U.S.-Iran war, and plans in late August to control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil. In between, there’s been taunting of European and NATO allies, a campaign to takeover over Greenland and its natural resources and, lately, an escalating U.S.-Canada trade war.” So even if seizure sounds far-fetched, it is a legitimate risk for central banks to mitigate.
Tags: Allies, Assets, Barrage, Canada, Capture, Clash, Economic, Escalating, Europe, Fear, France, Germany, Gold, Greenland, Iran war, Maduro, Military threats, Nato, Netherlands, Norway, Reserves, Risk, Safe haven, Seizing, Seizure, Tariff, Taunting, Trade war, Treasury, Trump, U.S., Venezuela, Venezuelan oil, Withdrawal
The Economist (July 18)
“It is too darn hot. On July 14th the surface temperature of Earth’s tropical and mid-latitude oceans was higher than on any other July 14th in modern records. The same was true for every other day in July, and for almost all of the days in June, too. Europe has gone through three heatwaves since May, and though the continent is better prepared for such things than it used to be, tens of thousands will have died as a result.”
Tags: Bessent, Bonds, Conflict, Currency, Decipher, Dollar, Fiscal concerns, Inflation, Investors, Markets, Middle East, Reassess, Trade war, US, Warsh
New York Times (February 23)
“Tariff turmoil” has returned to global markets. “Businesses and U.S. trade partners are again grappling with the uncertainty of President Trump’s trade war, even as he imposes new levies.” The President is vowing to extend tariffs under other means, but the recent “Supreme Court decision is likely to scramble, or at least slow down, some corporate investment plans,” including “commitments to reshore supply chains in the U.S.”
Tags: Businesses, Corporate investment, Decision, Global markets, Grappling, Levies, Reshoring, Scramble, Supply chains, Supreme Court, Tariff turmoil, Trade war, Trump, U.S., Uncertainty
Bloomberg (October 22)
“Six months into Donald Trump’s trade war, the resilience of Chinese exports is proving just how essential many of its products remain even after US levies of 55%.” The weaknesses of Trump’s tariffs are becoming clear. They “appear somewhat limited in their ability to control what American firms import, as China’s sway over sectors such as rare earths and electronics makes its products hard to dislodge.” On top of that, loopholes play a factor. “American importers are able to pay a lower levy by declaring the customs value of goods based on their first sale in a third country, and then raising the price when the items reach a US port. Transhipping via Mexico or Vietnam means some firms are likely not paying the full tax.”
Tags: China, Customs value, Dislodge, Electronics, Essential, Exports, Importers, Loopholes, Mexico, Price, Products, Rare earths, Resilience, Tariffs, Trade war, Transhipping, Trump, U.S., Vietnam
New York Times (August 25)
The Chinese “housing downturn has not delivered the devastating shock that the United States suffered in the 2008 financial crisis, but it has been hanging over the economy for five years with no end in sight.” Prices for new and secondhand homes continue to fall. “The continuing property market slide comes at a vulnerable moment for the Chinese economy. A trade war has limited China’s ability to rev up its export engine, while consumer spending remains soft. The government is plowing money into semiconductors, robotics and other technologies, but those investments are unlikely to pay off quickly enough to fill the hole left by a shrinking property sector.”
Tags: 2008 financial crisis, China, Consumer spending, Devastating, Downturn, Economy, Export engine, Home prices, Housing, Property market, Semiconductors, Trade war, U.S., Vulnerable
Reuters (July 22)
“China’s hardened rhetoric against price wars among producers is raising expectations Beijing may be about to kick off industrial capacity cuts in a long-awaited, but challenging, campaign against deflation that carries risks to economic growth.” Such a campaign would “echo” similar successful “reforms a decade ago to reduce the production of steel, cement, glass and coal, which were crucial to ending a period of 54 consecutive months of falling factory gate prices.” Success may prove elusive this round. “The fight against deflation will be much more complicated and poses risks to employment and growth” while U.S. trade war ”is intensifying price wars, squeezing factory profits.”
Tags: Beijing, Cement, China, Coal, Complicated, Deflation, Economic growth, Employment, Expectations, Glass, Growth, Industrial capacity, Price wars, Producers, Rhetoric, Risks, Steel, Trade war, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (June 25)
Steel and aluminum :”are trump’s worst tariffs.” They “will hit consumers, jobs and national security.” On June 3, President Trump announced that U.S. tariff rates on steel and aluminum would double to 50%, effective the next day.“ This move constitutes “the most reckless trade action of the Trump presidency.” The tariffs on these crucial manufacturing materials “will drive up the cost of U.S. manufactured products dramatically.” They may “drag the economy into a recession” and “will increase the probability of retaliation against American exports and an all-out trade war.” On top of that, the tariffs “will harm national security by increasing the cost of two essential components of defense procurement.”
Tags: 50, Aluminum, Consumers, Defense procurement, Economy, Exports, Jobs, Manufacturing, National security, Recession, Reckless, Retaliation, Steel, Tariffs, Trade war, Trump, U.S.
USA Today (June 22)
“The U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend could ratchet up the pressure on an American economy that’s turned increasingly fragile as a weekslong global trade war takes a toll.” The new foray “is most likely to impact oil prices, investors said, which could ripple through the economy by causing higher transportation and gas prices, just as overall inflation throughout the economy has seemed to be contained.”
Tags: Attack, Economy, Foray, Fragile, Gas prices, Impact, Inflation, Investors, Iran, Nuclear sites, Oil prices, Ripple, Trade war, Transportation, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (June 3)
“As exports of rare-earth magnets have virtually ground to a halt, carmakers face hard decisions about whether they can continue to keep some plants operating.” Major U.S. automakers are considering work arounds like “producing electric motors in Chinese factories or shipping made-in-America motors to China to have magnets installed.” If they do “end up shifting some production to China, it would amount to a remarkable outcome from a trade war initiated by President Trump with the intention of bringing manufacturing back to the U.S.”
Tags: Automakers, Carmakers, China, Decisions, Electric motors, Exports, Factories, Halt, Manufacturing, Plants, Production, Rare-earth magnets, Trade war, Trump, U.S.
Barron’s (June 2)
“China hit back at the U.S. early Monday, disputing President Donald Trump’s accusation that it’s failing to uphold its side of the bargain of the trade agreement reached last month…. The back-and-forth barbs are a bad sign for investors who were hoping that the trade war over tariffs was starting to de-escalate.”
Tags: Accusation, Back-and-forth, Barbs, China, De-escalate, Disputing, Investors, Tariffs, Trade agreement, Trade war, Trump, U.S.
