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Investment Week (November 18)

2019/ 11/ 21 by jd in Global News

The Fed’s “180-degree policy U-turn…from tightening to loosening interest rates” has “increased uncertainty about monetary policy.” Another factor exacerbating matters is “the unpredictable and escalating trade war between the US and China.” Combined, they have “resulted in a higher frequency of volatility spikes and some violent sector rotation.”


Business Insider (November 17)

2019/ 11/ 19 by jd in Global News

“While you weren’t looking… the trade war with China went completely off the rails and lost its meaning.” The trade war ostensibly began to deal with the “theft of US intellectual property (IP).” This key issue has essentially been abandoned and the dispute has moved on. It now appears centered on “how many soybeans China will buy.”


Bloomberg (November 16)

2019/ 11/ 18 by jd in Global News

China’s Q3 expansion is “the weakest since the government began releasing quarterly data in 1992. An obvious cause is the ongoing trade war…, but the economy would be decelerating even without that as is transitions away from the high debt, often wasteful growth model of the past. The knock-on effects are global, affecting companies and consumers alike.”


Bloomberg (October 17)

2019/ 10/ 18 by jd in Global News

“The IMF estimates that the U.S.-China trade war has shaved 0.8 percentage points off global growth,” but “the costs of tariffs could prove higher than just an economic slowdown.” The largely neglected threat is that the “slowdown, combined with a decade of ultra-loose monetary policy, could cause a wave of defaults among corporations. This double whammy could threaten the world’s financial stability.”


News Week (October 4)

2019/ 10/ 04 by jd in Global News

“Amid gathering economic gloom in the United States, some investors are betting the threat of impeachment will force President Donald Trump into cutting a deal with China to end a trade war between the world’s two largest economies.”


Boston Globe (September 8)

2019/ 09/ 10 by jd in Global News

“President Trump’s trade war with China isn’t just about how much the next pair of running shoes will cost American consumers…. Its impact is spreading like a virus to all segments of the US economy, affecting the manufacturing supply chain, with the potential to whack consumer confidence.”


Financial Times (September 4)

2019/ 09/ 05 by jd in Global News

“The US manufacturing sector has contracted for the first time in three years as the US-China trade war weighted on the industrial economy and added to fears over slowing domestic growth.” While one quarters manufacturing results do not necessarily lead to a US recession, “the details of yesterday’s ISM report were ugly, with new orders, production and employment sub-indices all contracting.”


Washington Post (August 26)

2019/ 08/ 28 by jd in Global News

President Trump has recently “vacillated back and forth between praising China and harshly criticizing it, all while claiming that the trade war he initiated is going great for the United States as evidence mounts that it is pushing us toward recession.” He seems to labor “under a series of misconceptions, bred by ignorance and what appears to be a complete lack of interest in grasping how the trade war appears from China’s perspective.” It is becoming painfully obvious that “Trump is in fact the world’s worst negotiator. And the price Americans are paying for his weakness keeps getting higher.”


Los Angeles Times (August 17)

2019/ 08/ 19 by jd in Global News

“More than seven decades later, the dispute over who should pay for the suffering…is at the heart of a downward spiral in relations between South Korea and Japan that has spawned a trade war and ignited massive protests and boycotts in South Korea,” putting much at risk. “An $80-billion bilateral trade relationship is in jeopardy, as is a military information-sharing agreement between the two countries that has been valuable for the U.S. and its allies against the North Korean threat.”


The Economist (August 10)

2019/ 08/ 11 by jd in Global News

“Since the trade war began in 2018 the damage done to the global economy has been surprisingly slight.” No longer. “This week the picture darkened as the confrontation between America and China escalated, with more tariffs threatened and a bitter row erupting over China’s exchange rate.” Compromise is essential. “But for that to happen President Donald Trump and his advisers must rethink their strategy…. America cannot have a cheap currency, a trade conflict and a thriving economy.”


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