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The Economist (April 3)

2021/ 04/ 04 by jd in Global News

There are now “growing worries that, like a ship which is too big to steer, supply chains have become a source of vulnerability…. As they battle the pandemic and face up to rising geopolitical tensions, governments everywhere are switching from the pursuit of efficiency to a new mantra of resilience and self-reliance.”

 

Reuters (December 13)

2020/ 12/ 14 by jd in Global News

“A final Brexit without a trade deal would damage the economies of Europe, send shockwaves through financial markets, snarl borders and sow chaos through the delicate supply chains across Europe and beyond.” British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed to extend talks beyond Sunday. “With a succession of deadlines missed, time is now critically short.”

 

Financial Times (March 2)

2020/ 03/ 04 by jd in Global News

“Europe as a whole, the UK included, should prepare for two foreseeable material economic shocks this year: a spread in the coronavirus and a WTO Brexit.” This may help create “the perfect storm for an economy dependent on exports and global supply chains.”

 

Bloomberg (February 4)

2020/ 02/ 06 by jd in Global News

“Fears that the coronavirus will ravage global supply chains rooted in China are spreading fast.” For some industries this could be a blessing. “A hiatus from production in the world’s largest car market may force” automakers “to take some needed rebalancing.” Overcapacity and production are running rife. “China’s factories have the capacity to make over 60 million vehicles a year. Only a third of that number are sold. Yet carmakers seem unable to, well, stop making cars.”

 

Economist (January 11)

2020/ 01/ 13 by jd in Global News

“The industries that will suffer most from new regulatory barriers to frictionless trade are those like aerospace, cars, chemicals, food and drink, and pharmaceuticals that rely on uninterrupted supply chains across Europe. They are concentrated in the midlands and north—exactly where Mr Johnson won his new Tory majority. If his weakness in the negotiations causes him to lose favour in those areas, his new domestic strength will be at risk.”

 

Washington Post (October 16)

2019/ 10/ 16 by jd in Global News

A no-deal Brexit has “been compared to “downshifting a car at full speed from fifth gear to first.” The U.K. could lose “continuity of trade relations with many of the 71 nations that have forged preferential trade agreements with the EU.” To date, the U.K. has secured continuity agreements with only about a dozen of these countries and it remains to be seen whether sufficient customs infrastructure will be in place. “Large U.K. businesses like engine-maker Rolls Royce Holdings Plc and brewer Heineken NV have outlined plans to hoard supplies in case a tumultuous Brexit chokes just-in-time supply chains and creates backlogs at ports.”

 

Wall Street Journal (May 11)

2019/ 05/ 13 by jd in Global News

The tariff spat with China “is a political trade risk the economy hasn’t faced since the 1930s, and no one knows where it might end.” Although there “will be many economic losers,” including U.S. farmers who are getting hit hard, “the broader cost is a continuation of policy uncertainty, as CEOs and investors can’t be sure about their supply chains, their cost of goods and raw material, or how long the tariff brawl will last.” Ultimately, “the impact on GDP is hard to calculate but it’s real.”

 

Forbes (May 6)

2019/ 05/ 07 by jd in Global News

“The trade war with China has pushed worries about supply chains from the No. 19 spot in 2017 to No. 12 in 2018. Companies in North America rate it at No. 8, mostly because of the new Nafta. The sharp rise in rankings for all things trade related shows that either companies have been preparing for this moment, or are worried that they are not prepared enough.”

 

Reuters (July 5)

2018/ 07/ 06 by jd in Global News

“Investors watching the trade tit-for-tat between the United States and China may well have reason to fear the havoc a full blown conflict between the world’s two biggest economies could wreak on the global economy.” Furthermore, the collateral damage could be worse than that done to the principals. Due to global supply chains, countries like Taiwan, Hungary, the Czech Republic, South Korea, and Singapore could be equally if not more vulnerable” to fall out from the spat between the U.S. and China.

 

Wall Street Journal (June 21)

2018/ 06/ 24 by jd in Global News

Investors aren’t quite sure “how to trade a trade war.” Some obvious stocks like Boeing and Caterpillar are being hit hard, but for many others there’s a lack of information on the potential impact, “partly because supply chains are so complex.” While there’s much to “suggest that trade war fears haven’t sunk in properly,” the bigger issue is that it is challenging “to price in something you don’t understand, and the implications of a trade battle are obscure, at best.” We don’t know “precisely which products will be targeted in the next round, or how long the tariffs will last.”

 

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