Fortune (August 19)
“The U.S. Federal Reserve’s looming decision on whether to cut interest rates in September 2025 is sparking heightened concern on Wall Street, as strategists at Bank of America (BofA) Securities draw unsettling parallels to the months preceding the 2007–08 financial crisis” in a note entitled “Ghosts of 2007.”
Tags: BofA, Concern, Cut, Fed, Financial Crisis, Interest rates, Looming. Decision, Parallels, September, Strategists, U.S., Unsettling, Wall Street
Fortune (August 19)
“The U.S. Federal Reserve’s looming decision on whether to cut interest rates in September 2025 is sparking heightened concern on Wall Street, as strategists at Bank of America (BofA) Securities draw unsettling parallels to the months preceding the 2007–08 financial crisis” in a note entitled “Ghosts of 2007.”
Tags: BofA, Concern, Cut, Fed, Financial Crisis, Ghosts of 2007, Interest rates, Looming. Decision, Parallels, September, Strategists, U.S., Unsettling, Wall Street
Barron’s (July 31)
“The Federal Reserve’s key inflation gauge,” which excludes food and energy “ran just slightly above expectations in June, raising additional doubts about how quickly the bank will be able to lower interest rates.” Rising 0.3% month on month and 2.8% year on year, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index surpassed consensus expectations. This week, Fed officials indicated the need before lowering rates for “more evidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward the bank’s 2% target,” but the PCE’s “stronger-than-expected result” appears to show the opposite.
Tags: 2% target, Consensus, Doubts, Energy, Evidence, Expectations, Fed, Food, Inflation, Inflation gauge, Interest rates, June, PCE
Financial Times (June 8)
“Donald Trump’s gyrations on trade policy have not broken global financial markets just yet — but what is happening in Hong Kong shows they are feeling the strain.” For over a month, Hong Kong’s interest rates remained fixed at just above 0%, which is peculiar, “Its currency is pegged to the US dollar” so this presents a prime arbitrage opportunity, which is going untaken. “This little episode reveals a disturbing fragility. Markets may appear to be taking all of the Trumpian disruption in their stride, but when a dislocation of this sort persists for more than a month, it is a warning sign. Watch out for trouble ahead.”
Tags: 0%, Arbitrage, Broken, Currency, Dislocation, Dollar, Fragility, Global financial markets, Gyrations, Hong Kong, Interest rates, Peg, Strain, Trade policy, Trump, U.S.
Bloomberg (May 30)
According to respondents in a Bloomberg survey, “the European Central Bank will lower interest rates twice more.” They predicted “quarter-point reductions on June 5 and at September’s meeting, when new quarterly forecasts should shed more light on the effects of US President Donald Trump’s reordering of global trade.” Respondents also cautioned that the ECB “shouldn’t wait too long between those moves or investors will conclude that its easing campaign is already over.” If their predictions hold, the deposit rate would rise to 1.75%, “where the poll sees it settling through the end of 2026.”
Tags: 1.75%, Easing campaign, ECB, Global trade, Interest rates, Investors, June, Predicted, Quarterly forecasts, Reductions, Respondents, September, Trump, U.S.
Institutional Investor (May 27)
Current trends seem to indicate “that investment managers are increasingly prioritizing flexible, innovative product solutions – particularly in ETFs, private assets, and SMAs – as traditional offerings lose their dominance. Considering the current challenging macro environment – inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical/trade conflicts – we will be keen to observe whether these shifts in investor product preferences endure or lose their gusto in the face of wideswept market challenges.”
Tags: ETFs, Flexible, Geopolitical, Inflation, Innovative, Interest rates, Investment managers, Macro environment, Market challenges, Prioritizing, Private assets, SMAs, Trade conflicts, Traditional offerings, Trends
Financial Times (February 7)
The Bank of England (BoE) “has halved its 2025 growth estimate and cut interest rates… as it contends with a stagnant UK economy and an increasingly uncertain international environment.” In November, the BoE expected annual economic growth of 1.5%. Now it expects growth of just 0.75%, with higher unemployment and rising inflation. The new forecasts “will stoke fears of stagflation” and the Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to cut benchmark rates from 4.75% to 4.5%.
Tags: 2025, Benchmark, BOE, Economic growth, Environment, Forecasts, Halved, Inflation, Interest rates, MPC, Stagflation, Stagnant, UK, Uncertain, Unemployment
Inc. (January 9)
“Everyone loves talking about the stock market, but the $28 trillion Treasury market is the fortuneteller of the pair—bonds are now flashing warnings of a Fed policy error, resurgent price pressures, and a ballooning debt pile.” Contrary to expectations, “bond yields have surged since the Fed began cutting interest rates.”
Tags: Ballooning debt, Bonds, Fed, Fortuneteller, Interest rates, Policy error, Price pressures, Stock market, Treasury market, Warnings, Yields
Forbes (January 3)
“By the end of 2024, it was clear average national wages weren’t keeping pace with the rate of inflation…. The BOJ decided on December 19 that Japan isn’t ready to normalize interest rates,” with the official rate remaining 0.25%. This presents “quite a paradox for global investors who’d rushed into Nikkei 225 Stock Average stocks. If the BOJ thinks Japan still requires economic training wheels after all this time, why should they bet on Japan Inc.?”
Tags: 2024, BOJ, Global investors, Inflation rate, Interest rates, Japan Inc., National wages, Nikkei 225, Official rate, Paradox, Training wheels
U.S. News and World Report (December 30)
“The past two years have defied economists’ predictions for a slowing economy, or even a recession.” Despite increased risk and uncertainty arising from the “wild card of Trump,” the U.S. economy “should remain strong” as it is buoyed by “a moderating labor market, lower interest rates and strong household income.” Household wealth has surged 40% to $150 trillion since 2020, “while debt service payments measured as a percentage of income have largely remained static.”
Tags: Defied, Economy, Household income, Interest rates, Labor market, Predictions, Recession, Risk, Slowing Economy, Trump, U.S., Uncertainty, Wealth Debt service, Wild card
