Washington Post (January 12)
In his inaugural address President Trump promised that “the immense power of the state” will never again “be weaponized to persecute political opponents.” This is “the biggest broken promise of his second term. The latest example is the criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell…. It’s apparent that the real cause of the investigation is Trump’s clashes with Powell over interest rates. Such lawfare has a way of backfiring, and this threat could fortify the central bank’s independence rather than weaken it.”
Tags: Backfiring, Broken promise, Criminal investigation, Fed, Interest rates, Investigation, Lawfare, Persecute, Political opponents, Powell, Real cause, Threat, Trump, Weaponized
Reuters (January 5)
“The world economy is making a surprising habit of shrugging off unpleasant shocks…. Since 2020, the planet has weathered a global pandemic, inflation, sharply rising interest rates, and the outbreak of war without a major slump. In 2025, a tsunami of enthusiasm about artificial intelligence offset the disruptive effects of U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade turmoil, keeping economies and financial markets humming. Opposing forces are preparing to battle for supremacy again in 2026. The stage is set for a turbulent contest between gain and pain.”
Tags: 2020, 2026, AI, Disruptive, Financial markets, Gain, Global pandemic, Inflation, Interest rates, Trade turmoil, Trump, Unpleasant shocks, War, World economy
MarketWatch (December 22)
“The kitchen sink was thrown at the economy in 2025 — punishing tariffs, higher inflation, rising unemployment — but the U.S. might still be growing at an above-average speed in a sign of surprising pluck.” Can the momentum continue? AI may deliver continuing investment and efficiency gains. In addition, 2026 “should also benefit from lower interest rates, relaxed tariffs, fewer taxes and regulations, and more government spending in a midterm-election year.”
Tags: 2025, 2026, AI, Economy, Efficiency gains, Inflation, Interest rates, Investment, Momentum, Regulations, Tariffs, Taxes, U.S., Unemployment
New York Times (December 1)
“Investors had been growing more optimistic that the Fed will cut interest rates at next week’s meeting” while holiday sales “also bolstered the rally.” Still, “the consumer is still a major concern…. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have flagged that a recent rise in spending may be masking a concerning economic undercurrent: Many lower-income consumers are struggling with stubbornly high inflation and an uncertain labor market.”
Tags: Analysts, BoA, Consumer, Fed, GS, Holiday sales, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Labor market, Lower-income, Optimistic, Rally, Spending, Struggling, Undercurrent
Fortune (August 19)
“The U.S. Federal Reserve’s looming decision on whether to cut interest rates in September 2025 is sparking heightened concern on Wall Street, as strategists at Bank of America (BofA) Securities draw unsettling parallels to the months preceding the 2007–08 financial crisis” in a note entitled “Ghosts of 2007.”
Tags: BofA, Concern, Cut, Fed, Financial Crisis, Interest rates, Looming. Decision, Parallels, September, Strategists, U.S., Unsettling, Wall Street
Fortune (August 19)
“The U.S. Federal Reserve’s looming decision on whether to cut interest rates in September 2025 is sparking heightened concern on Wall Street, as strategists at Bank of America (BofA) Securities draw unsettling parallels to the months preceding the 2007–08 financial crisis” in a note entitled “Ghosts of 2007.”
Tags: BofA, Concern, Cut, Fed, Financial Crisis, Ghosts of 2007, Interest rates, Looming. Decision, Parallels, September, Strategists, U.S., Unsettling, Wall Street
Barron’s (July 31)
“The Federal Reserve’s key inflation gauge,” which excludes food and energy “ran just slightly above expectations in June, raising additional doubts about how quickly the bank will be able to lower interest rates.” Rising 0.3% month on month and 2.8% year on year, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index surpassed consensus expectations. This week, Fed officials indicated the need before lowering rates for “more evidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward the bank’s 2% target,” but the PCE’s “stronger-than-expected result” appears to show the opposite.
Tags: 2% target, Consensus, Doubts, Energy, Evidence, Expectations, Fed, Food, Inflation, Inflation gauge, Interest rates, June, PCE
Financial Times (June 8)
“Donald Trump’s gyrations on trade policy have not broken global financial markets just yet — but what is happening in Hong Kong shows they are feeling the strain.” For over a month, Hong Kong’s interest rates remained fixed at just above 0%, which is peculiar, “Its currency is pegged to the US dollar” so this presents a prime arbitrage opportunity, which is going untaken. “This little episode reveals a disturbing fragility. Markets may appear to be taking all of the Trumpian disruption in their stride, but when a dislocation of this sort persists for more than a month, it is a warning sign. Watch out for trouble ahead.”
Tags: 0%, Arbitrage, Broken, Currency, Dislocation, Dollar, Fragility, Global financial markets, Gyrations, Hong Kong, Interest rates, Peg, Strain, Trade policy, Trump, U.S.
Bloomberg (May 30)
According to respondents in a Bloomberg survey, “the European Central Bank will lower interest rates twice more.” They predicted “quarter-point reductions on June 5 and at September’s meeting, when new quarterly forecasts should shed more light on the effects of US President Donald Trump’s reordering of global trade.” Respondents also cautioned that the ECB “shouldn’t wait too long between those moves or investors will conclude that its easing campaign is already over.” If their predictions hold, the deposit rate would rise to 1.75%, “where the poll sees it settling through the end of 2026.”
Tags: 1.75%, Easing campaign, ECB, Global trade, Interest rates, Investors, June, Predicted, Quarterly forecasts, Reductions, Respondents, September, Trump, U.S.
Institutional Investor (May 27)
Current trends seem to indicate “that investment managers are increasingly prioritizing flexible, innovative product solutions – particularly in ETFs, private assets, and SMAs – as traditional offerings lose their dominance. Considering the current challenging macro environment – inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical/trade conflicts – we will be keen to observe whether these shifts in investor product preferences endure or lose their gusto in the face of wideswept market challenges.”
Tags: ETFs, Flexible, Geopolitical, Inflation, Innovative, Interest rates, Investment managers, Macro environment, Market challenges, Prioritizing, Private assets, SMAs, Trade conflicts, Traditional offerings, Trends
