The Economist (October 17 Edition)
“Never in the field of human conflict was so much risked by one man for so little. Donald Trump is threatening to cripple Ukraine in its fight for survival—and to expose Europe to Russian aggression—seemingly for the pitiful prize of minimising his losses in next month’s midterm elections. The hard question is what Ukraine and its allies should do.”
Tags: Cripple, Elections, Europe, Fight, Human conflict, Losses, Pitiful prize, Risked, Russian aggression, Survival, Threatening, Trump, Ukraine
New York Times (October 2)
President Trump is now “threatening to ban or restrict the export of diesel from the United States, which is the top supplier to more than a dozen countries including Mexico, Canada and much of Europe. Oil executives and world leaders are issuing increasingly dire warnings that the result could be global price spikes on everything from groceries to jet fuel.” The only nation with spare capacity to process more diesel is China, but analysts believe “China has started again to restrict some of its sizable exports of refined crude products including diesel.”
Tags: Ban, Canada, China, Diesel, Dire warnings, Europe, Export, Global price spikes, Groceries, Jet fuel, Mexico, Oil, Restrict, Spare capacity, Threatening, Top supplier, Trump, U.S.
Time (July 16)
“Iran’s return to conflict is best read as a calculated gamble…. Above all, Tehran’s leadership fears a staged unwinding of its leverage. Once it stops threatening shipping and restrains its regional partners, those tools become difficult to recover.” While Iran may be “running a familiar playbook of escalating to deescalate” and may have an “accurate reading” of President Donald Trump’s desire “to avoid rising energy prices, American casualties, and another open ended war in the Middle East;” there’s less certainty about how that deescalation will come about. “There is no formal consensus… and no faction willing to move first on anything that could be portrayed as surrendering leverage, legitimizing the bombing campaign, or handing Trump a clear victory.”
Tags: Calculated, Casualties, Certainty, Conflict, Deescalate, Energy prices, Escalating, Fears, Iran, Leadership, Legitimizing, Leverage, Middle East, Recover, Shipping, Threatening, Tools, Trump, War
Financial Times (April 9)
“Among the many consequences of the stand-off in the Strait of Hormuz, it seems that we may look back on this as the week in which one of America’s most powerful geopolitical tools was shown to be a weakened stick. Threatening to limit access to the global dollar system now seems less fearsome.” US Treasury sanctions cover the entire country of Iran. “But not only does this not appear to have prevented it from selling oil while at war with the US, it has not seemed to stop it from charging ransom fees to international shipping seeking to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Tags: Consequences, Fearsome, Geopolitical tools, Global dollar system, Iran, Oil, Ransom fees, Sanctions, Stand-off, Strait of Hormuz, Threatening, Treasury, U.S., Weakened
Bloomberg (May 19)
“‘Sell America’ is back as Moody’s pushes 30-year yield to 5%.” Just a week after traders “had to react quickly to weekend news of an improvement in trade relations between the US and China,” they will again have to paddle hard, but this time in the opposite direction. Rising Treasury yields are also expected to “complicate the government’s ability to cut back by running up its interest payments, while also threatening to weaken the economy by forcing up rates on loans such as mortgages and credit cards.”
Tags: 5%, China, Economy, Government, Interest payments, Loans, Moody, Mortgages, Rates, Sell America, Threatening, Traders, Treasury yields, U.S., Weaken
The Economist (April 22)
“Monetary madness” continues in the U.S. as “Trump fires at the Fed.” After Trump took potshots, threatening to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the American economy became “collateral damage…. When markets opened on April 21st, after a long Easter weekend, American stocks, Treasury bonds and the dollar all sharply declined—another example of the ‘sell America’ trade.”
Tags: Collateral damage, Declined, Dollar, Economy, Fed, Fire, Markets, Monetary madness, Potshots, Powell, Sell America, Stocks, Threatening, Treasury bonds, Trump, U.S.
The Economist (February 8 Issue)
“If dealmaking means threatening catastrophe in order to win small gains, then Donald Trump is the master of the art.” Despite the collective sigh of relief when he suspended tariffs on Canada and Mexico in return for “some old promises,” the story is not necessarily over: “Donald Trump could still blow up global trade.” There is a real chance that “ideology, complacent markets and a need for revenue may still lead to big tariffs.”
Tags: Canada, Catastrophe, Complacent, Dealmaking, Global trade, Ideology, Mexico, Promises, Relief, Small gains, Tariffs, Threatening, Trump
Reuters (February 5)
“Prolonged factory deflation is threatening the survival of smaller Chinese exporters who are locked in relentless price wars for shrinking business as higher interest rates abroad and rising trade protectionism squeeze demand.” Fifteen months of falling producer prices have crushed “profit margins to the point where industrial output and jobs are now at risk,” further “compounding China’s economic woes, which include a property crisis and debt crunch.”
Tags: China, Demand, Economic woes, Exporters, Factory deflation, Interest rates, Jobs, Output, Price wars, Producer prices, Profit margins, Prolonged, Property crisis, Relentless, Risk, Survival, Threatening, Trade protectionism
South China Morning Post (January 17)
“China’s population has declined for the first time in six decades, with the national birth rate for 2022 falling to a record low and the nation’s deepening demographic crisis threatening far-reaching implications for economic growth.” The nation’s “overall population plummeted by 850,000 people – to 1.4118 billion in 2022” while “the national birth rate fell to a record low of 6.77 births for every 1,000 people in 2022… marking the lowest rate since records began in 1949.”
Tags: 1949, 2022, Birth rate, China, Declined, Demographic crisis, Economic growth, Far-reaching, Implications, Population, Record low, Threatening
Bangkok Post (September 2)
“Many developing countries are teetering on the edge of a debt crisis, with the Covid-19 pandemic, soaring food and energy costs, and the monetary tightening of major economies all threatening to push them over.” Lebanon, Sri Lanka and some other countries have already teetered. “As of the end of March, 38 of 69 low-income countries were either already in or at high risk of debt distress. Middle-income developing countries’ debt-service burden is at its highest level in 30 years.”
Tags: COVID-19, Debt crisis, Developing countries, Distress, Energy costs, Food, High-risk, Lebanon, Low income, Major economies, Middle-income, Monetary tightening, Pandemic, Soaring, Sri Lanka, Teetering, Threatening
