Washington Post (February 8)
China’s President Xi Jinping would like the renminbi to become a globally recognized reserve currency. He “seeks to capitalize on the dollar’s value slipping to a four-year low and gold recently hitting an all-time high amid uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump’s tariffs, threats to Federal Reserve independence and myriad geopolitical crises.” However, China appears to be “in no position to achieve his vision absent self-sabotage by the United States and free market reforms he is hesitant to undertake.”
Tags: Capitalize, China, Dollar, Fed, Geopolitical crises, Gold, Independence, Renminbi, Reserve currency, Self-sabotage, Tariffs, Threats, Trump, U.S., Uncertainty, Vision, Xi
Market Watch (January 14)
“For investors, a meaningful erosion of central-bank independence would weaken the Fed’s inflation-targeting discipline and be negative for both stocks and bonds, as markets have long operated under the assumption that Fed independence will hold.” Although “we do not expect the Trump administration to capture the Federal Reserve, continued pressure on central-bank independence is likely to weigh on the U.S. dollar.” Ultimately, “market calm is conditional on the Senate acting as a backstop to Fed independence. If that condition is misread, markets will break down.”
Tags: Bonds, Capture, Central bank, Discipline, Dollar, Erosion, Fed, Independence, Inflation, Investors, Markets, Negative, Senate, Stocks, Trump, U.S., Weaken
Washington Post (January 12)
In his inaugural address President Trump promised that “the immense power of the state” will never again “be weaponized to persecute political opponents.” This is “the biggest broken promise of his second term. The latest example is the criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell…. It’s apparent that the real cause of the investigation is Trump’s clashes with Powell over interest rates. Such lawfare has a way of backfiring, and this threat could fortify the central bank’s independence rather than weaken it.”
Tags: Backfiring, Broken promise, Criminal investigation, Fed, Interest rates, Investigation, Lawfare, Persecute, Political opponents, Powell, Real cause, Threat, Trump, Weaponized
New York Times (December 1)
“Investors had been growing more optimistic that the Fed will cut interest rates at next week’s meeting” while holiday sales “also bolstered the rally.” Still, “the consumer is still a major concern…. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have flagged that a recent rise in spending may be masking a concerning economic undercurrent: Many lower-income consumers are struggling with stubbornly high inflation and an uncertain labor market.”
Tags: Analysts, BoA, Consumer, Fed, GS, Holiday sales, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Labor market, Lower-income, Optimistic, Rally, Spending, Struggling, Undercurrent
Washington Post (September 20)
“Although investors cheered the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut and the stock market has kept powering along, the economy is facing growing headwinds on one crucial front — consumer spending,” which is “faltering.” Even upper income consumers “are being more strategic about when to make big purchases, buying in bulk and shopping at cheaper retailers,” but the “shift is most pronounced among lower-income consumers, who are disproportionately vulnerable to rising prices and other economic pressures eroding their purchasing power.”
Tags: Bulk, Consumer spending, Economic pressures, Economy, Faltering, Fed, Headwinds, Investors, Lower-income, Rate cut, Retailers, Rising prices, Stock market, Upper income, Vulnerable
Washington Post (September 11)
“For the Fed itself, however, we can offer no easy answer to the quandary it’s facing.” Their upcoming rate decision is perilous. “It might seem obvious that the Fed should choose employment over inflation, since unemployment is so brutal on the people who suffer it…. But the post-pandemic recovery demonstrated that high inflation also creates a lot of suffering.”
Tags: Brutal, Employment, Fed, High inflation, Perilous, Post-pandemic, Quandary, Rate, Recovery
Barron’s (August 22)
“The stock market snatched victory from the jaws of defeat this past week, thanks to a surprisingly dovish Jerome Powell.” Last week, fear had taken over. “Artificial-intelligence fever had turned into AI flu, causing Nvidia stock to drop for three consecutive days and the rest of the Mag Seven to stumble. Then, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole suggested he was leaning toward a September interest-rate cut, sending stocks roaring back.” A strong earnings report from Nvidia could provide the catalyst to fully bring “those sputtering animal spirits should roar back to life.”
Tags: AI flu, Defeat, Dovish, Earnings report, Fear, Fed, Interest-rate cut, Jackson Hole, Mag Seven, Nvidia, Powell, Stock market, Stumble, Victory
Fortune (August 19)
“The U.S. Federal Reserve’s looming decision on whether to cut interest rates in September 2025 is sparking heightened concern on Wall Street, as strategists at Bank of America (BofA) Securities draw unsettling parallels to the months preceding the 2007–08 financial crisis” in a note entitled “Ghosts of 2007.”
Tags: BofA, Concern, Cut, Fed, Financial Crisis, Interest rates, Looming. Decision, Parallels, September, Strategists, U.S., Unsettling, Wall Street
USA Today (August 16)
“President Donald Trump’s aggressive economic policies will likely significantly slow U.S. growth and push up inflation but stop short of causing a recession or “stagflation” – the dire scenarios that forecasters envisioned before he took office.” Economist Justin Begley of Moody’s Analytics believes the U.S. is edging toward stagflation, but will not end up there. Much will depend on the Fed which “faces a dilemma because lowering rates to bolster a softening labor market could further drive up inflation.”
Tags: Begley, Dilemma, Economic policies, Economist, Fed, Growth, Inflation, Labor market, Moody’s Analytics, Rates, Recession, Stagflation, Stagflation. Dire, Trump, U.S.
Fortune (August 19)
“The U.S. Federal Reserve’s looming decision on whether to cut interest rates in September 2025 is sparking heightened concern on Wall Street, as strategists at Bank of America (BofA) Securities draw unsettling parallels to the months preceding the 2007–08 financial crisis” in a note entitled “Ghosts of 2007.”
Tags: BofA, Concern, Cut, Fed, Financial Crisis, Ghosts of 2007, Interest rates, Looming. Decision, Parallels, September, Strategists, U.S., Unsettling, Wall Street
