Market Watch (March 1)
“Market participants came into 2024 looking for six or more quarter percentage point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but now see only three. They should further revise that all the way down to zero,” based on a note, released Friday, from Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management’s chief economist.
Tags: 2024, Apollo Global Management, Economist, Fed, Interest rate cuts, Market, Note, Participants, Quarter percentage point, Six, Slok, Three, Zero
Institutional Investor (February 1)
“The Federal Reserve has signaled that it expects to cut rates sometime this year,” though the first cut now looks likely to be delayed until at least May. “Still, most economists think that absent an inflation resurgence, the Fed is going to lower rates this year. Based on past rate cuts that have occurred before entering a recession, the two most likely outcomes are: “no recession and a strong bull market… or a recession and a bust for the Fed.”
Tags: Bull market, Bust, Delayed, Economists, Fed, inflation resurgence, May, Outcomes, Rate cuts, Recession
USA Today (January 2)
“The post-COVID-19 economy was finally supposed to stop defying gravity and topple into a recession this year.” While “growth is expected to slow… other factors are likely to keep the economy afloat, forecasters say, including near-record home and stock prices, a further easing of inflation to or near the Fed’s 2% goal and the central bank’s tentative plans to cut interest rates more sharply than previously anticipated.”
Tags: Easing, Economy, Fed, Growth, Inflation, Interest, Post-Covid, Rates, Recession, Record, Slow, Stock prices
Wall Street Journal (December 28)
“The failure to anticipate how quickly the Fed would raise interest rates has upended banks big and small this year. Three bigger ones collapsed this spring, but it is community banks… that have been in a full-blown crisis. The losses on long-term bonds have unnerved depositors, investors and regulators who have questioned how bankers failed to properly protect themselves from interest-rate risks.”
Tags: Anticipate, Banks, Bonds, Collapsed, Community banks, Crisis, Depositors, Failure, Fed, Interest rates, Investors, Protect, Regulators, Risks, Unnerved, Upended
CNN (December 27)
While the economic progress made during 2023 is remarkable, “there’s still a long way to go before inflation is where the Fed wants it,” partly because higher prices have been “pervasive” and “sticky.” They’re not easily reversible. “More than 90% of the items tracked in the Consumer Price Index are more expensive than they were in February 2020, with most price increases landing north of 20% and some (fuel and margarine) approaching 55%.”
Tags: 20%, 2023, CPI, Economic progress, Expensive, Fed, Fuel, Inflation, Margarine, Pervasive, Prices, Remarkable, Sticky
Wall Street Journal (December 22)
“The Federal Reserve is winning its fight over inflation, boosting Americans’ spirits and offering greater reassurance that the U.S. economy can avoid a recession while bringing prices under control.” The PCE index favored by the Fed, “fell 0.1% in November from the previous month, the first decline since April 2020…. Prices were up 2.6% on the year, not far from the Fed’s 2% target.”
Tags: Boosting, Decline, Economy, Fed, Inflation, November, PCE index, Prices, Reassurance, Recession, Target, U.S.
New York Times (December 14)
“The markets have been climbing since July — and have been positively buoyant since late October — on the assumption that truly good times are in the offing. That may turn out to be a correct assumption,” but the Fed “went out of its way to say that it is positioning itself for maximum flexibility. Prudent investors may want to do the same.”
Tags: Assumption, Buoyant, Climbing, Fed, Flexibility, July, Markets, October, Prudent
Wall Street Journal (December 12)
“Investors spent most of 2023 fretting about inflation and interest rates. Now they are snapping up everything from stocks and bonds to crypto and even gold.” Does the “simultaneous surge across assets” signal “the arrival of a lasting bull market” or is it “just a fleeting sugar high at the end of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle?” Opinions are divided.
Tags: 2023, Bonds, Bull market, Crypto, Cycle, Fed, Fleeting, Fretting, Gold, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Stocks, Surge, Tightening
Reuters (December 8)
“Since war broke out in Ukraine and the U.S. Federal Reserve began a rapid cycle of raising borrowing costs early last year, it has been exceedingly difficult in most parts of the world for companies to get initial public offerings off the ground. Many are getting ready in case an opportunity arises,” but conditions remain unpromising. So far in 2023, “new listings have raised just $114 billion,” which is “on pace to be the lowest amount since 2008” and marks a “dramatic fall from the $571 billion peak achieved just two years ago.”
Tags: $114 billion, $571 billion, 2008, 2023, Dramatic fall, Fed, IPOs, Lowest, New listings, Peak, Rate hikes, U.S., Ukraine, Unpromising, War
Washington Post (December 2)
“The debate now is when the Fed will start cutting interest rates. Stocks ,, come by May. That would certainly help the housing market, which has frozen with mortgage rates at the highest levels in about two decades.”
Tags: Betting, Cutting, Debate, Fed, Frozen, Highest, Housing market, Interest, Investors, Mortgage rates, Rallying, Rates, Stocks