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Bloomberg (April 30)

2024/ 05/ 01 by jd in Global News

“Regardless of how pragmatic propping up the yen after such a poor run may sound, the question is whether it would be wise…. With US rate sentiments weighing heavily on the yen, an intervention would be no lasting solution in the event of a hawkish Fed pivot.”


New York Times (April 12)

2024/ 04/ 14 by jd in Global News

“More economists are paring their bets that the Fed will cut rates after the latest Consumer Price Index report.” The new consensus of “higher-for-longer inflation… has hit the U.S. housing market like a thunderbolt. Home prices and mortgage rates are climbing again, dashing hopes that financing costs would fall this year and adding another economic question that could hang over the presidential election campaign.”


New York Times (March 23)

2024/ 03/ 25 by jd in Global News

“Investors in the futures market had expected the Fed to cut rates up to six times this year, but have recently come around to the central bank’s view that only three cuts are more likely. It hasn’t seemed to matter for the stock market’s barnstorming rally.”


Market Watch (March 1)

2024/ 03/ 01 by jd in Global News

“Market participants came into 2024 looking for six or more quarter percentage point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but now see only three. They should further revise that all the way down to zero,” based on a note, released Friday, from Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management’s chief economist.


Institutional Investor (February 1)

2024/ 02/ 01 by jd in Global News

“The Federal Reserve has signaled that it expects to cut rates sometime this year,” though the first cut now looks likely to be delayed until at least May. “Still, most economists think that absent an inflation resurgence, the Fed is going to lower rates this year. Based on past rate cuts that have occurred before entering a recession, the two most likely outcomes are: “no recession and a strong bull market… or a recession and a bust for the Fed.”


USA Today (January 2)

2024/ 01/ 03 by jd in Global News

“The post-COVID-19 economy was finally supposed to stop defying gravity and topple into a recession this year.” While “growth is expected to slow… other factors are likely to keep the economy afloat, forecasters say, including near-record home and stock prices, a further easing of inflation to or near the Fed’s 2% goal and the central bank’s tentative plans to cut interest rates more sharply than previously anticipated.”


Wall Street Journal (December 28)

2023/ 12/ 29 by jd in Global News

“The failure to anticipate how quickly the Fed would raise interest rates has upended banks big and small this year. Three bigger ones collapsed this spring, but it is community banks… that have been in a full-blown crisis. The losses on long-term bonds have unnerved depositors, investors and regulators who have questioned how bankers failed to properly protect themselves from interest-rate risks.”


CNN (December 27)

2023/ 12/ 28 by jd in Global News

While the economic progress made during 2023 is remarkable, “there’s still a long way to go before inflation is where the Fed wants it,” partly because higher prices have been “pervasive” and “sticky.” They’re not easily reversible. “More than 90% of the items tracked in the Consumer Price Index are more expensive than they were in February 2020, with most price increases landing north of 20% and some (fuel and margarine) approaching 55%.”


Wall Street Journal (December 22)

2023/ 12/ 23 by jd in Global News

“The Federal Reserve is winning its fight over inflation, boosting Americans’ spirits and offering greater reassurance that the U.S. economy can avoid a recession while bringing prices under control.” The PCE index favored by the Fed, “fell 0.1% in November from the previous month, the first decline since April 2020…. Prices were up 2.6% on the year, not far from the Fed’s 2% target.”


New York Times (December 14)

2023/ 12/ 16 by jd in Global News

“The markets have been climbing since July — and have been positively buoyant since late October — on the assumption that truly good times are in the offing. That may turn out to be a correct assumption,” but the Fed “went out of its way to say that it is positioning itself for maximum flexibility. Prudent investors may want to do the same.”


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