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Washington Post (December 2)

2023/ 12/ 04 by jd in Global News

“The debate now is when the Fed will start cutting interest rates. Stocks ,, come by May. That would certainly help the housing market, which has frozen with mortgage rates at the highest levels in about two decades.”


Bloomberg (December 1)

2023/ 12/ 01 by jd in Global News

“For all the bullish milestones notched by November’s big market surge, recent history offers Wall Street a lesson in caution. Time and time again, speculation breaks out that the Federal Reserve is poised to ease monetary policy soon enough — spurring even cautious investors to erupt in a spasm of cross-asset buying. Stocks jump, bond yields fall, and a dash ensues among equity speculators into shady corners encompassing everything from meme fliers to crypto and profitless tech.”


Financial Times (September 1)

2023/ 09/ 03 by jd in Global News

“The US labour market cooled in August, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve is successfully orchestrating a soft landing for the world’s largest economy. Investors hailed a possible Goldilocks scenario in which inflation comes under control without causing a recession, as Friday’s figures revealed an uptick in the unemployment rate, subdued jobs growth and wage rises back at pre-Covid rates.”


Financial Times (July 29)

2023/ 07/ 30 by jd in Global News

“Inflation is falling for a number of reasons “beyond the Fed’s control,” like an easing of the worst impacts from “the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.” But the Fed’s rate hikes have effectively “reduced demand for credit.” The results can be seen in mortgage debt and car loans. “Overall, growth in non-revolving credit—the loans you take out just once, like a mortgage—is now just below zero.” There’s one snag on the revolving credit side, where credit growth is still “coming from credit cards.”


Markets Insider (June 27)

2023/ 06/ 28 by jd in Global News

“The banking crisis that unfolded earlier this year isn’t over, and banks could be hit with losses akin to what was seen in 2008 if the Federal Reserve doesn’t get inflation under control.” In its annual report, the Bank for International Settlements called attention to the “lasting ramifications of 2023’s bank failures, starting with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in early March.”


Wall Street Journal (June 16)

2023/ 06/ 17 by jd in Global News

“In just 24 hours this past week the central banks of the world’s three biggest economic blocs came to starkly different conclusions, with the eurozone raising rates, the U.S. on hold and the Chinese cutting. It’s getting harder for investors to understand the global economy—and potentially getting harder for the Federal Reserve to put a lid on inflation.”


Investment Week (June 12)

2023/ 06/ 13 by jd in Global News

“Earlier this month, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he does not expect inflation to decline quickly, signalling resistance against the market consensus. We believe it would have to be a severe economic recession for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates before the end of the year, as is currently priced in by the forward markets. Therefore, we believe, interest rates will remain ‘higher for longer’. This is inherently positive for MMFs, where yields and total returns are driven for the most part by central bank rates. A higher-for-longer interest rate trajectory could potentially yield 4.5% to 5% for MMFs in US-dollar terms in the next three, six and 12 months.”


Investment Week (May 10)

2023/ 05/ 10 by jd in Global News

“The Bank of England is widely expected to make a 25 basis points hike tomorrow (11 May) as inflation remains stickily in the double digits, despite record rises in interest rates over the past two years. The move would come in the wake of similar decisions from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank last week.” Looking ahead, a rate cut seems more likely from the Fed, with analysts “split on the path forward for the BoE following the presumed 25bps hike, with much depending on economic data released over the next few months.”


Washington Post (April 14)

2023/ 04/ 15 by jd in Global News

“Businesses and consumers have found it more challenging to obtain financing.” Federal Reserve data shows “commercial bank lending fell by over $100 billion in the two weeks ending March 29,” which was “the largest two-week cutback in overall bank lending… in records going back half a century.” The same period also brought “the largest decline in commercial and industrial loans on record. And the largest decline on record in lending to real estate, and the largest decline on record in bank holdings of mortgages.”


New York Times (March 21)

2023/ 03/ 22 by jd in Global News

“The failures of Silicon Valley Bank and three other lenders over the past 11 days” have “put the Fed in a difficult position as it prepares to deliver on Wednesday one of the most consequential decisions on interest rates of the Jay Powell era.” In addition to tightening rates to curb inflation while somehow avoiding a recession, the “banking crisis hands the central bank a third crucial challenge: how to steer the banking sector out of the predicament and restore confidence in the sector.”


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