Investment Week (May 10)
“The Bank of England is widely expected to make a 25 basis points hike tomorrow (11 May) as inflation remains stickily in the double digits, despite record rises in interest rates over the past two years. The move would come in the wake of similar decisions from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank last week.” Looking ahead, a rate cut seems more likely from the Fed, with analysts “split on the path forward for the BoE following the presumed 25bps hike, with much depending on economic data released over the next few months.”
Tags: 25 basis points, Analysts, BOE, ECB, Economic data, Fed, Hike, Inflation, Interest rates, Rate cut, Split
Washington Post (April 14)
“Businesses and consumers have found it more challenging to obtain financing.” Federal Reserve data shows “commercial bank lending fell by over $100 billion in the two weeks ending March 29,” which was “the largest two-week cutback in overall bank lending… in records going back half a century.” The same period also brought “the largest decline in commercial and industrial loans on record. And the largest decline on record in lending to real estate, and the largest decline on record in bank holdings of mortgages.”
Tags: Businesses, Challenging, Commercial bank, Consumers, Cutback, Decline, Fed, Financing, Industrial, Lending, Real estate
New York Times (March 21)
“The failures of Silicon Valley Bank and three other lenders over the past 11 days” have “put the Fed in a difficult position as it prepares to deliver on Wednesday one of the most consequential decisions on interest rates of the Jay Powell era.” In addition to tightening rates to curb inflation while somehow avoiding a recession, the “banking crisis hands the central bank a third crucial challenge: how to steer the banking sector out of the predicament and restore confidence in the sector.”
Tags: Banking crisis, Consequential, Decisions, Failures, Fed, Inflation, Interest rates, Powell, Predicament, Recession, SVB
New York Times (March 8)
“It seems even the most bullish on Wall Street now get the message: The Federal Reserve is prepared to raise interest rates until it feels it’s sufficiently beaten back inflation — even if those moves cool off the job market and send the economy into recession.” It will now clearly be “higher for longer.”
Tags: Bullish, Economy, Fed, Higher for longer, Inflation, Interest rates, Job market, Recession, Wall Street
Wall Street Journal (February 16)
“Fresh figures on jobs and prices drove the economy’s surprising vigor this year, joining rising household incomes, consumer resilience and other data that have persuaded investors the Federal Reserve’s battle against inflation is likely to be a longer one than they hoped.” In January, U.S. hiring rose while “unemployment fell to a 53-year low.”
Tags: Consumer resilience, Economy, Fed, Hiring, Household incomes, Inflation, Investors, January, Jobs, Prices, Rising, Surprising, U.S., Vigor
Bloomberg (February 9)
“Money managers have cut $300 billion of bearish bets and are now positioned more in line with historic norms — robbing the market of pent-up demand just as the Federal Reserve warns its inflation-fighting battle is far from over.”
Tags: $300 billion, Bearish bets, Demand, Fed, Historic norms, Inflation, Market, Money managers
New York Times (February 2)
The “disconnect” between cautious Fed statements and “investor expectations” is rooted in the tension between current data and projections. “Many forecasters expect the labor market, as well as inflation in many kinds of services, to weaken this year as the full effect of the Fed’s rate moves plays out; the Fed, on the other hand, is waiting for clearer signs in the data.”
Tags: Data, Disconnect, Expectations, Fed, Forecasters, Inflation, Investor, Labor market, Projections, Rates, Services, Tension
American Banker (January 26)
“The Federal Reserve may be slowing down on rate increases, but the same isn’t true for your neighborhood bank. Almost 20% of U.S. banks offered to pay savings rates of 2% or more in January, up from 15% in December and from just 1% a year ago.”
Tags: 2%, Banks, Fed, Rate increases, Savings rates, U.S., Up
Wall Street Journal (January 2)
Citing “red flags” like housing market decline, the spend down of pandemic savings, and tighter bank lending standards, “more than two-thirds of the economists at 23 large financial institutions that do business directly with the Federal Reserve are betting the U.S. will have a recession in 2023. Two others are predicting a recession in 2024.”
Tags: 2023, Decline, Economists, Fed, Financial institutions, Housing market, Lending standards, Pandemic savings, Recession, Red flags, Tighter, U.S.
CNN (September 29)
“Mortgage rates surged for the sixth week in a row, moving closer to 7%. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.70% in the week ending September 29, up from 6.29% the week before…. That’s the highest level since July 2007.” Amid soaring inflation and aggressive moves by the Fed, “mortgage rates have more than doubled since the start of this year.”
Tags: 30-year, 7%, Aggressive, Doubled, Fed, Fixed-rate, Highest, Inflation, Mortgage, Rates, Surged
