New York Times (November 27)
“The inflation risk stalking the markets eased over the summer,” but is now “front and center again as investors contend with a Trumponomics crackdown on immigration, a rising trade-war risk and a potential bonanza of tax cuts.” Trump’s “latest trade threats show how uncertain the outlook could be”. Since he vowed “to impose tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico…analysts have been gaming out the potential impact.” It could be an opening gambit of little consequence, but “economists fear that it could add bottlenecks and costs to supply chains and reignite inflation, and that it could scramble the Fed’s policy on interest rates.”
Tags: Bottlenecks, Canada, China, Costs, Crackdown, Fed, Immigration, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Markets, Mexico, Risk, Supply chains, Tariffs, Tax cuts, Trade war, Trumponomics, Uncertain
Bloomberg (November 8)
“Trump’s return Is an abominable ambush for the Fed. Coming down the mountain of high interest rates was always the most dangerous part. For Jerome Powell, it now looks even harder.”
Tags: Abominable, Ambush, Dangerous, Fed, Harder, High interest rates, Powell, Return, Trump
Reuters (November 1)
“The U.S. dollar will hold on to its recent strength over coming months on robust domestic economic data and continued scaling back of bets for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts” according to a recent Reuters poll.”
Tags: Coming months, Cuts, Dollar, Economic data, Fed, Interest rate, Poll, Recent strength, Reuters, Robust, Scaling back, U.S.
CNN (October 30)
“The US economy seems to have pulled off a remarkable and historic achievement.” James Bullard, the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, is among the “economists and officials who told CNN the economy has finally pulled off” a soft landing. “That scenario, in which inflation is tamed without a recession” would mark “an exceptionally rare achievement.”
Tags: Bullard, Economists, Economy, Fed, Historic, Inflation, Officials, Rare, Recession, Remarkable, Soft landing, St. Louis, Tamed, U.S.
Bloomberg (October 15)
“Europe’s saga has taken a new turn. At its last meeting, the European Central Bank seemed in no hurry to cut rates further. Now expectation has shifted to virtual certainty that a rate cut is coming. Indeed, market participants expect the ECB to cut rates in almost perfect synchronization with the Federal Reserve.”
Tags: Certainty, ECB, Europe, Expectation, Fed, Market participants, Rate cut, Saga, Synchronization
Bloomberg (October 7)
“The ‘no landing’ scenario–a situation where the US economy keeps growing, inflation reignites and the Federal Reserve has little room to cut interest rates–had largely disappeared as a bond-market talking point in recent months.” After “setting up for slowing growth,” traders are undergoing another “wrenching recalibration” on the heels of a “blowout” jobs report “showing the fastest job growth in six months, a surprising drop in US unemployment and higher wages.” Treasury yields surged and investors are “furiously reversing course on bets for a larger-than-normal half-point interest-rate reduction.”
Tags: Blowout, Bond market, Economy, Fed, Growing, Inflation, Interest rates, Jobs, No landing, Recalibration, Scenario, Traders, Treasury yields, U.S., Unemployment, Wages
Fortune (September 30)
Hedge fund veteran Mark Spitznagel “previously said markets would rally as the Fed eases in a Goldilocks phase, but has also warned a recession is coming and that rate cuts are also the opening signal for big reversals down the line. In the current environment, that means in the biggest market bubble in history will soon pop, eventually prompting the Fed to ‘do something heroic’ but doom the economy to stagflation.”
Tags: Bubble, Doom, Economy, Fed, Goldilocks phase, Hedge-fund, Markets, Rally, Rate cuts, Recession, Reversals, Spitznagel, Veteran
Reuters (September 28)
“Treasury yields and the dollar fell while the Dow registered a record closing high on Friday as a subdued U.S. inflation report lifted expectations of an outsized interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s November policy meeting.” On top of that, “a global stock index also reached a record high, helped by China’s stimulus boost, and European shares posted an all-time high close.”
Tags: China, Dollar, Dow, Europe, Expectations, Fed, Global stock, High, Index, Inflation, Interest rate, Policy meeting, Record, Stimulus, U.S., Yields
Seeking Alpha (September 21)
“It was a historic week for Wall Street, with the benchmark S&P 500… closing above the 5,700 points level for the first time ever. Meanwhile, the blue-chip Dow (DJI) surpassed and ended above the 42,000 points mark for the first time ever. The advance was driven by what was undoubtedly the most important event of the week:” the Fed’s half-point interest rate cut.
Tags: Advance, Benchmark, Blue-chip, Dow, Fed, Half-point, Historic, Interest rate, S&P 500, Wall Street
Wall Street Journal (September 18)
“The Federal Reserve’s rate cut Wednesday sounded the all-clear for overseas central banks that are also concerned about their domestic economic growth.” Some major central banks like the BoE and ECB, already beat the Fed in cutting rates, but “there are a number of others, including in India, South Korea and South Africa, that have held back. And the Fed’s move could encourage them to take the plunge.”
Tags: All-clear, BOE, Central banks, ECB, Economic growth, Encourage, Fed, India, Overseas, Plunge, Rate cut, South Africa, South Korea
