New York Times (April 21)
“The mundanity of the courtroom has all but swallowed Donald Trump, who for decades has sought to project an image of bigness and a sense of power…. For the next six weeks, a man who values control and tries to shape environments and outcomes to his will is in control of very little.”
Tags: Bigness, Control, Courtroom, Environments, Mundanity, Outcomes, Power, Project, Shape, Swallowed, Trump
Institutional Investor (February 1)
“The Federal Reserve has signaled that it expects to cut rates sometime this year,” though the first cut now looks likely to be delayed until at least May. “Still, most economists think that absent an inflation resurgence, the Fed is going to lower rates this year. Based on past rate cuts that have occurred before entering a recession, the two most likely outcomes are: “no recession and a strong bull market… or a recession and a bust for the Fed.”
Tags: Bull market, Bust, Delayed, Economists, Fed, inflation resurgence, May, Outcomes, Rate cuts, Recession
Investment Week (May 18)
“Credit fundamentals have worsened since the market sell-off began, although central banks could provide some companies with a soft landing and many firms have drawn on their credit lines in a bid to stay afloat.” Even though “the impact is highly correlated across geographies, industries and asset classes…the potential outcomes are too severe to only affect equities and credit-market fundamentals have undoubtedly been impacted.”
Tags: Asset classes, Central banks, Correlated, Credit, Equities, Fundamentals, Geographies, Industries, Market, Outcomes, Sell-off, Severe, Soft landing, Worsened
Investment Week (September 18)
“The global economy is in a tricky spot…. Money markets are pricing in two possible scenarios, with two very different outcomes. First, a high probability of limited Fed easing…. This would not be enough to kick‑start global growth. Second, a low probability of significant Fed easing, resulting in rates being cut close to zero. This—combined with some limited fiscal stimulus from Europe and China—would be enough to refresh global growth.”
Tags: EU, Fed easing, Fiscal stimulus, Global economy, Growth, Money markets, Outcomes, Pricing, Rate cut, Scenarios
Institutional Investor (August 21)
Black swan events “will continue to jolt global markets. But when even the best of human forecasters struggle to predict with accuracy the outcomes of these events, how can pension plans, for example, effectively make decisions to better weather the volatility that follows.” Big data may hold the key. “Using big data to track media sentiment, volume, tone and correlation can help institutional investors understand the diffusion of ideas and outliers that can serve as clues for unexpected risk.”
Tags: Accuracy, Big Data, Black swan, Correlation, Diffusion, Forecasters, Global markets, Human, Jolt, Outcomes, Outliers, Pension plans, Sentiment, Unexpected risk, Volatility
Financial Times (November 4)
It now “seems likely, and indeed desirable, that the BoJ will be forced to expand its programme of quantitative easing before too long.” The Bank of Japan revised both its inflation and growth forecasts downward, and extended its horizon for achieving its inflation target. “Disappointing outcomes do not mean that the BoJ’s combination of an inflation target and using QE has failed, but that it needs to be more enthusiastically pursued. The BoJ can and should contemplate going further.”
Tags: Bank of Japan, Forecasts, Growth, Inflation, Outcomes, Quantitative easing
Euromoney (May Issue)
“The Cyprus solution is inadequate as well as sending the wrong messages on depositors’ risks and free capital flows. Then there’s Slovenia…and Italy….. So the euro debt crisis is not over….. Markets are far too sanguine about the outcomes.”
Tags: Banks, Cyprus, Debt crisis, Depositors, EU, euro, Free capital flows, Markets, Outcomes, Risks
