Barron’s (February 23)
“Markets are now pricing for the sweet spot of reflation toward equilibrium. But too much of a good thing is, well, not a good thing. And with the Biden administration proposing a fiscal stimulus package nearly three times as large as the U.S. output gap and given a probable improvement in household demand as more Americans are vaccinated, the risk of overheating is not trivial.”
Tags: Biden, Equilibrium, Fiscal stimulus, Household demand, Markets, Overheating, Pricing, Reflation, Risk, Sweet spot, U.S., Vaccinated
Reuters (June 26)
“World stocks have been on a rollercoaster ride in the first half of 2020. Having slumped 35% from Feb. 20 to March 23, they are now within 10% of February’s record highs thanks to lashings of fiscal stimulus, interest rates slashed to 0% or below in most major economies, and massive amounts of QE. Borrowing costs for high-grade U.S. companies have in fact fallen below January levels.” The rest of the year could bring more roller coaster. “Much depends on whether another coronavirus wave comes crashing down,”
Tags: Borrowing costs, Fiscal stimulus, High-grade, Interest rates, QE, Rollercoaster, Slashed, Slumped, Stocks, U.S.
Investment Week (September 18)
“The global economy is in a tricky spot…. Money markets are pricing in two possible scenarios, with two very different outcomes. First, a high probability of limited Fed easing…. This would not be enough to kick‑start global growth. Second, a low probability of significant Fed easing, resulting in rates being cut close to zero. This—combined with some limited fiscal stimulus from Europe and China—would be enough to refresh global growth.”
Tags: EU, Fed easing, Fiscal stimulus, Global economy, Growth, Money markets, Outcomes, Pricing, Rate cut, Scenarios
Financial Times (September 13)
Mario Draghi and the ECB have done their part, but “Germany will wait until it is too late before providing a measurable fiscal stimulus.” This is the optimal “time for Europe to invest in its future,” with low inflation, zero cost of borrowing and fiscal surpluses. “German leaders know this,” but fear alarming “the good burghers of Munich, Hamburg and Frankfurt. Were recession to provoke a full-blown euro-zone crisis, Berlin would of course act…. But do not expect Germany to dispatch the fire brigade before the flames have fully taken hold. What a waste.”
Tags: Borrowing, Crisis, Draghi, ECB, Euro zone, Fiscal stimulus, Germany, Inflation, Recession, Surpluses
