Barron’s (January 27)
“Japan is the market’s ‘Big Story.’” Proposals for a “looser fiscal policy” have resulted in “big moves in the yen and Japanese government bonds that have investors increasingly on edge around the world.” Now all eyes are on the 40-year JGB auction, which really “matters for U.S. and European investors. If prices fall, sending yields higher it, it could make Japanese bonds attractive enough for local investors to move money invested abroad back to Japan.”
Tags: 40 year, Abroad, Europe, Investors, Japan, JGBs, Looser fiscal policy, Market, Money, Prices, U.S., Yen, Yields
MarketWatch (November 21)
“Developments in Japan are now creating the risk that U.S. yields could rise alongside Japan’s yields.” Amid budget concerns over proposed fiscal stimulus, yields on JGBs “hit their highest levels in almost two decades, with the country’s 10-year rate spiking above 1.78% to its highest level in more than 17 years” while 40-year yields “climbed to an all-time high just above 3.7%.” Since Japan “is the biggest foreign holder of Treasurys, with a roughly 13% share… the concern is that the country’s investors might one day pull the rug by keeping more of their savings at home.”
Tags: 1.78%, 3.7%, Budget, Developments, Fiscal stimulus, Investors, Japan, JGBs, Risk, Savings, Treasurys, U.S., Yields
Barron’s (May 23)
“It’s time to worry about Japan and the yen carry trade again.” Rising yields in Japan could spell potential trouble in the U.S. The latest sale of Japan Government Bonds (JGBs) “was met with much less interest than anticipated,” selling at lower-than-expected prices and higher yields. “Those higher yields are trouble for the yen carry trade, which is a bad sign for U.S. Treasuries. Money borrowed in Japan often goes to buy U.S. debt, leading to a potential domino effect.”
Tags: Carry trade, Domino effect, Japan, JGBs, Prices, Rising yields, Treasuries. Debt, Trouble, U.S., Yen
MarketWatch (May 22)
“A soaring 30-year Treasury yield has grabbed the lion’s share of attention lately when it comes to signaling how the U.S. fiscal outlook is rattling investors.” What’s happening in Japan, as bond yields surge, is a “less-talked-about factor weighing on sentiment.” Yields on 30-year JGBs rose “to almost 3.17% on Thursday, the highest in roughly 25 years of record-keeping” while 40-year yields “jumped to 3.67%, the highest level since its inception in 2007.” The “sharply higher yields on Japanese government bonds” may already be enticing “the country’s investors to return home.” It is likely that “the recent selloff in the Japanese bond market may have played at least some role in the Treasury market’s own selloff of the longest-dated government maturity Thursday morning.”
Tags: 3.67%, 30-year, 40 year, Bond yields, Enticing, Fiscal outlook, Investors, JGBs, Rattling, Sentiment, Soaring, Surge, Treasury, U.S.
Bloomberg (July 18)
“The growing focus on the risks associated with the BOJ’s monetary stimulus program—which includes enormous asset purchases, particularly of Japanese government bonds, as well as negative interest rates and yield curve control—comes as its inflation target remains elusive. With no end to its program in sight, the BOJ is under increasing pressure to mitigate risks and explain its thinking about an eventual exit.” Bloomberg calculated that the BOJ already owns over 70 percent of all shares in Japan-listed ETFs and could soon own most of the free float in companies like Fast Retailing.0000000000000
Tags: Asset purchases, BOJ, ETFs, Fast Retailing, Free float, Inflation, Japan, JGBs, Monetary stimulus, Negative interest rates, Risks, Yield curve control
Bloomberg (September 16)
Standard & Poors became the latest credit-rating company to downgrade Japan, following earlier moves by Moody’s and Fitch. “Could the Japan downgrade presage a stampede for the exits by international investors? Unlikely.” Most JGB investors are domestic “and probably won’t be concerned about the verdict of U.S. financial services companies, especially ones with the questionable reputations of the credit raters.” Japanese investors will continue to “view Japanese bonds as the ultimate safe zone.”
Tags: Credit rating, Downgrade, Fitch, Investors, Japan, JGBs, Moody's, Reputations Bonds, Safe, Standard & Poors, U.S.
Institutional Investor (May Issue)
“The secret weapon of Abenomics” is the rebalancing of Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF). “The GPIF is diversifying at a pace that’s astonishing for a fund of its size…. In the last six months of 2014, while slashing its JGB holdings, the fund increased its exposure to Japanese stocks by ¥5 trillion, to foreign equities by ¥7 trillion and to foreign bonds by ¥4 trillion.”
Tags: Abenomics, Bonds, Diversifying, Equities, GPIF, Japan, JGBs, Rebalancing, Stocks
Wall Street Journal (April 3, 2013)
“Japan’s quadrillion-yen market for government bonds is grappling with something it usually doesn’t face: volatility. Price gyrations are rising as bond investors try to assess how Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s fresh attack on deflation will play out in a market accustomed to a steady decline in consumer prices and a cautious, predictable central bank.”
Tags: Abe, BOJ, Bond market, Consumer prices, Deflation, Investors, Japan, JGBs, Volatility
