MarketWatch (November 21)
“Developments in Japan are now creating the risk that U.S. yields could rise alongside Japan’s yields.” Amid budget concerns over proposed fiscal stimulus, yields on JGBs “hit their highest levels in almost two decades, with the country’s 10-year rate spiking above 1.78% to its highest level in more than 17 years” while 40-year yields “climbed to an all-time high just above 3.7%.” Since Japan “is the biggest foreign holder of Treasurys, with a roughly 13% share… the concern is that the country’s investors might one day pull the rug by keeping more of their savings at home.”
Tags: 1.78%, 3.7%, Budget, Developments, Fiscal stimulus, Investors, Japan, JGBs, Risk, Savings, Treasurys, U.S., Yields
Institutional Investor (June 4)
The U.S. deficit “is now set to explode, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Michael Cembalest, who derided the Republicans for their new budget bill that will add trillions of dollars to the deficit in coming years.” His recent note to institutional investors estimated that the Big Beautiful Bill passed by the House will increase the deficit by “$2.8 to $3.4 trillion… over the next ten years” and, “if certain temporary provisions become permanent, the cost could reach $5 trillion.”
Tags: Budget, Cembalest, Cost, Deficit, Derided, Explode, House, Institutional investors, J.P. Morgan AM, Provisions, Republicans, Trillions, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (February 17)
“Treasury yields have sprung to multiyear highs, forcing the U.S. government to pay a lot more in interest and putting pressure on the budget.” Over the new decade, federal interest costs are now expected to rise by $1.1 trillion, reviving “Wall Street worries that the years-long acceleration in borrowing under both political parties will eventually weigh on economic growth and asset prices.”
Tags: $1.1 trillion, Asset prices, Borrowing, Budget, Costs, Economic growth, Interest, Pressure, Treasuries, U.S. Government, Wall Street, Worries, Yields
The Guardian (March 18)
“The UK remains on track for a ’disastrous decade’ of stagnant incomes and high taxes, despite cuts to public services” based on recent budget analysis. The Resolution Foundation thinktank determined that, after accounting for inflation, “typical household disposable incomes were on course to be lower by the end of the forecast period in 2027-28 than they were before the pandemic.”
Tags: Analysis, Budget, Disastrous decade, Disposable incomes, Forecast, High taxes, Household, Inflation, Pandemic, Public services, Stagnant incomes, Thinktank, UK
Financial Times (October 20)
“In just six weeks, Truss cratered the Conservative party’s poll ratings and unleashed turmoil on financial markets. She was forced into a U-turn on her “mini” Budget involving £45bn of unfunded tax cuts, sacked her chancellor and ousted her home secretary.” After vowing to fight on, she then delivered “one of the shortest and bleakest resignation statements in modern British history: she was quitting after only 44 days in office.”
Tags: Bleakest, Budget, Conservative Party, Cratered, Financial markets, Ratings, Resignation, Shortest, Tax cuts, Truss, Turmoil, U-turn
WARC (April 14)
Marketing spend is set to grow across all 15 major types of media. “Social media sees the largest net budget increase, at +53%, while print and AM/FM radio see the smallest net budget increase, but still at +13%.” Taken as a whole, “WARC Data forecasts global advertising spend to grow by 12.5% this year.”
Tags: Advertising, AM/FM, Budget, Data, Forecasts, Global, Increase, Marketing, Media, Print, Radio, Social media, Spend, WARC
Wall Street Journal (March 7)
“Oil and gas revenue makes up about half of the Kremlin’s budget and is critical to financing Vladimir Putin’s bloody war on Ukraine.” The trouble is “sanctions on Russian energy could also harm the world economy and especially Europe,” which depends on Russia for a quarter of its oil and 40% of its natural gas. “Unless the West is willing to grasp this nettle, the world will continue to finance the Putin war machine.”
Tags: Budget, Critical, Economy, Energy, Europe, Financing, Kremlin, Natural gas, Oil, Putin, Revenue, Sanctions, Ukraine, War
The Economist (December 1)
“Personal income tax accounted for only 8% of total tax revenue in China last year, compared with an average of 24% in the OECD, a group of rich countries.” This is largely because tax dodging is ubiquitous. Estimates suggest “only 2% of Chinese pay any income tax.” Since “China has run a budget deficit in 21 of the past 22 years,” however, the government is now making efforts to raise collection to 15%.
Tags: Budget, China, Collection, Deficit, Dodging, Government, Income tax, OECD, Revenue
Wall Street Journal (October 26)
The European Central Bank is now faced with “a dilemma as it edges toward higher interest rates just as the region’s economy slows and faces escalating risks, from international trade tensions to a European dispute over Italy’s budget.” For now, President Mario Draghi has no plans to change course as the ECB seeks to “phase out easy-money policies.”
Tags: Budget, Dilemma, Draghi, ECB, Economy, Interest rates, Italy, QE, Risks, Trade tensions
Washington Post (February 13)
President Trump released his very own “comic book” in the form of a budget. Candidate Trump boasted “he would ‘get rid of the $19 trillion in debt . . . over a period of eight years,’” but his budget would add $7 trillion to the debt over a decade — $2 trillion in the next two years alone — and even those numbers are based on the peculiar assumption that the economy will never again go into recession.” That’s only the beginning. His comic-book budget goes onto shred many of the bold promises Trump once made.
