Barron’s (January 3)
“Of all the fearless forecasts put out there for the new year, one conspicuously missing from those lists is probably the easiest one: The United States of America will lose its last remaining triple-A credit rating.” Standard & Poor’s was the first to lower its rating on U.S. government debt in 2011. In 2023, “Fitch Ratings followed suit.” That November, Moody’s Investors Service “lowered its outlook to negative.” It seems inevitable, especially given Trump’s desire for tax cuts, that Moody’s will eventually lower its Aaa rating as well. “Given the lack of serious measures, so far, to slow the government debt growth, the U.S.A. doesn’t merit a triple-A rating.”
Tags: 2011, 2023, Credit rating, Fearless, Fitch, Forecasts, Government debt, Inevitable, Lower, Merit, Moody's, Negative, Outlook, Rating, S&P, Tax cuts, Triple-A, Trump, U.S.
New York Times (November 27)
“The inflation risk stalking the markets eased over the summer,” but is now “front and center again as investors contend with a Trumponomics crackdown on immigration, a rising trade-war risk and a potential bonanza of tax cuts.” Trump’s “latest trade threats show how uncertain the outlook could be”. Since he vowed “to impose tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico…analysts have been gaming out the potential impact.” It could be an opening gambit of little consequence, but “economists fear that it could add bottlenecks and costs to supply chains and reignite inflation, and that it could scramble the Fed’s policy on interest rates.”
Tags: Bottlenecks, Canada, China, Costs, Crackdown, Fed, Immigration, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Markets, Mexico, Risk, Supply chains, Tariffs, Tax cuts, Trade war, Trumponomics, Uncertain
Washington Post (October 24)
“Tax hikes and macroeconomic discipline won’t be enough. To persuade both investors and voters to believe in post-Brexit Britain, Sunak needs a convincing growth agenda. Since tax cuts are unaffordable, that agenda must consist of regulatory reform. Sunak must be as bold on microeconomic strategy as he is on macro.”
Tags: Britain, Convincing, Discipline, Growth agenda, Investors, Macroeconomic, Microeconomic strategy, Persuade, Post-Brexit, Regulatory reform, Sunak, Tax cuts, Tax hikes, Unaffordable, Voters
Financial Times (October 20)
“In just six weeks, Truss cratered the Conservative party’s poll ratings and unleashed turmoil on financial markets. She was forced into a U-turn on her “mini” Budget involving £45bn of unfunded tax cuts, sacked her chancellor and ousted her home secretary.” After vowing to fight on, she then delivered “one of the shortest and bleakest resignation statements in modern British history: she was quitting after only 44 days in office.”
Tags: Bleakest, Budget, Conservative Party, Cratered, Financial markets, Ratings, Resignation, Shortest, Tax cuts, Truss, Turmoil, U-turn
Reuters (March 22)
“The Trump Trade could start looking more like a Trump Tantrum if the new U.S. administration’s healthcare bill stalls in Congress, prompting worries on Wall Street about tax cuts and other measures aimed at promoting economic growth.” Investors are less optimistic “that U.S. President Donald Trump will swiftly enact his agenda, with a Thursday vote on a healthcare bill a litmus test which could give stock investors another reason to sell.”
Tags: Congress, Economic growth, Healthcare, Investors, Tax cuts, Trump Tantrum, U.S., Wall Street, Worries
