Financial Times (February 7)
The Bank of England (BoE) “has halved its 2025 growth estimate and cut interest rates… as it contends with a stagnant UK economy and an increasingly uncertain international environment.” In November, the BoE expected annual economic growth of 1.5%. Now it expects growth of just 0.75%, with higher unemployment and rising inflation. The new forecasts “will stoke fears of stagflation” and the Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to cut benchmark rates from 4.75% to 4.5%.
Tags: 2025, Benchmark, BOE, Economic growth, Environment, Forecasts, Halved, Inflation, Interest rates, MPC, Stagflation, Stagnant, UK, Uncertain, Unemployment
New York Times (November 27)
“The inflation risk stalking the markets eased over the summer,” but is now “front and center again as investors contend with a Trumponomics crackdown on immigration, a rising trade-war risk and a potential bonanza of tax cuts.” Trump’s “latest trade threats show how uncertain the outlook could be”. Since he vowed “to impose tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico…analysts have been gaming out the potential impact.” It could be an opening gambit of little consequence, but “economists fear that it could add bottlenecks and costs to supply chains and reignite inflation, and that it could scramble the Fed’s policy on interest rates.”
Tags: Bottlenecks, Canada, China, Costs, Crackdown, Fed, Immigration, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Markets, Mexico, Risk, Supply chains, Tariffs, Tax cuts, Trade war, Trumponomics, Uncertain
Time (May 30)
“There are moments in American history that we all know matter, even if we aren’t clear at the time about their weight.” These moments become “political inflection points” and one of them “just took place in lower Manhattan. Thursday’s decision by a dozen jurors to find former President Donald Trump guilty of 34 felony crimes is an era-defining event, but how it will shape the age remains entirely uncertain.”
Tags: Decision, Era-defining event, Felony crimes, Guilty, History, Inflection points, Jurors, Manhattan, Moments, Political, Trump, U.S., Uncertain
Reuters (January 29)
“Equity analysts are still counting on a speedy reopening. They expect the 1,585 companies included in the Global MSCI Index to report 6% higher net profit this year than they did in 2019, and 21% higher earnings in 2022.” Constituents are “still valued on an average multiple of 21 times this year’s forecast earnings, far above a long-term average of 16 times. With the path out of lockdowns looking uncertain, such exuberance is likely to end in disappointment.”
Tags: 2019, 2022, Analysts, Disappointment, Equity, Exuberance, Forecast earnings, Global MSCI, Lockdowns, Multiples, Profit, Reopening, Uncertain
Institutional Investor (May 4)
With an unexpected turn, the Icahn-Xerox battle has grown even uglier. “After surrendering their jobs to a ‘gloating’ Carl Icahn and Darwin Deason, Xerox’s leadership defies the activists and hangs on — for now.” Where the chips will ultimately fall is now highly uncertain.
Tags: Activists, Battle, Deason, Icahn, Leadership, Uncertain, Unexpected, Xerox
Washington Post (June 6)
“Vying for the title of the United States’ most progressive city, Seattle this week decided to raise its minimum wage to $15 an hour.” Amidst the applause and the doomsayers, however, lies the truth. Nobody knows how this experiment will end. “Despite literally hundreds of studies focusing on the minimum wage, top economists are still uncertain about the consequences of raising it.”
Tags: Consequences, Doomsayers, Economists, Experiment, Minimum wage, Progressive, Seattle, Studies, U.S., Uncertain
