Bloomberg (June 29)
“With just 10 days to go until President Donald Trump’s country-specific tariffs are set to resume, the White House appears poised to fall short of the sweeping global trade reforms it promised to achieve during the three months they were on hold.” It is unclear what will happen to the tariffs at the point. The President’s unpredictable approach may gain “concessions from trading partners,” but “the erratic effort has injected uncertainty into the financial markets, and created anxiety for domestic businesses. The lack of clarity around the deadline heightens the tension.”
Tags: 10 days, Anxiety, Approach, Businesses, Clarity, Concessions, Deadline, Erratic, Financial markets, Global trade, Promised, Reforms, Resume, Tariffs, Tension, Trading partners, Trump, Uncertainty, Unpredictable
Fortune (June 28)
“Recent housing market indicators show persistent weakness in home prices, including consecutive month-over-month declines. That’s as housing supply has increased while demand has stayed tepid amid still-high mortgage rates hovering around 7%. The slump in prices raises the risk of a prolonged downturn.” There may be an upside to the slump. Lower prices may “make homes more attractive, potentially spurring more demand and representing some relief for younger Americans who are looking to buy but have been priced out of the market.”
Tags: Buy, Declines, Demand, Downturn, Home prices, Housing market, Indicators, Mortgage rates, Persistent weakness, Priced out, Relief, Supply, Tepid, Younger
The Guardian (June 26)
“A broken housing market is driving inequality right across Europe – and fuelling the far right.” One might think “rising costs are a problem particular to your community, city or country. But unaffordable house prices and rents are a continent-wide issue.” And it’s not confined to Europe. Across “much of the rest of the world – property has become a driving force of inequality. In turn, inequality is a driving force of resentment. Far-right politicians have tapped into this anger for their own political gain.” Although housing policies are set nationally, “the European Union can set frameworks and support access to finance…. There are solutions, and there is political will.”
Tags: Anger, Community, Costs, EU, Europe, Far right, Finance, Frameworks, Housing market, Inequality, Political gain, Prices, Property, Rents, Resentment, Solutions, Unaffordable
Washington Post (June 25)
“Governments around the world are scrambling for ways, often at great fiscal cost, to slow or even reverse their baby busts. From cash incentives to paid leave, the results have been disappointing.” They would do better to quit fighting and focus on adaptation. After 17 years of population decline, Japan “now offers a surprisingly hopeful counter that an aging economy can still offer growth and prosperity.” Recent analysis by Goldman Sachs found that in Japan “the demographic decline that once drained vitality is now creating a ‘virtuous cycle’ of tightening labor markets, increased worker bargaining power and more investment in productivity-enhancing tech. These trends are helping prop up the economy even as it weathers a shock from the U.S.-led trade war.”
Tags: Adaptation, Aging economy, Baby busts, Cash incentives, Cost, Demographic decline, Goldman Sachs, Governments, Growth, Investment, Labor markets, Paid leave, Population, Prosperity, Reverse, Scrambling, Tech, Virtuous cycle
Wall Street Journal (June 25)
Steel and aluminum :”are trump’s worst tariffs.” They “will hit consumers, jobs and national security.” On June 3, President Trump announced that U.S. tariff rates on steel and aluminum would double to 50%, effective the next day.“ This move constitutes “the most reckless trade action of the Trump presidency.” The tariffs on these crucial manufacturing materials “will drive up the cost of U.S. manufactured products dramatically.” They may “drag the economy into a recession” and “will increase the probability of retaliation against American exports and an all-out trade war.” On top of that, the tariffs “will harm national security by increasing the cost of two essential components of defense procurement.”
Tags: 50, Aluminum, Consumers, Defense procurement, Economy, Exports, Jobs, Manufacturing, National security, Recession, Reckless, Retaliation, Steel, Tariffs, Trade war, Trump, U.S.
Barron’s (June 23 Issue)
“Non-GAAP numbers were to be used judiciously to explain extenuating or extraordinary circumstances, like a factory fire or the sale of a division.” Instead, they’ve become endemic. “For fiscal 2024, some 351 companies in the S&P 500 index, or 71%, reported either non-GAAP net income or non-GAAP earnings per share.” Of those, 89% of the adjustments made “their results look better” and the difference can be vast. “Intel had the biggest adjustment last year.” With “a GAAP loss of $19.2 billion” the chipmaker “categorized $18.6 billion as nonrecurring, so it reported a non-GAAP loss of $600 million.” And the sleight of hand can be performed year after year. For example, Oracle “has booked a restructuring charge every year for the past five years.” Especially in tech and healthcare, “non-GAAP numbers are now more accepted than the ‘generally accepted’ ones.”
Tags: Adjustments, Endemic, EPS, Extenuating, Extraordinary circumstances, Factory fire, Healthcare, Intel, Loss, Net income, Non-GAAP, Nonrecurring, Oracle, Restructuring, Results, S&P 500, Tech
Fortune (June 22)
“Russia’s high-spending war economy, after years of defying predictions of imminent recession, is finally running into the hard limits of labor, productivity, and inflation.”
Tags: Defying, High-spending, Imminent, Inflation, Labor, Limits, Predictions, Productivity, Recession, Russia, War economy
USA Today (June 22)
“The U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend could ratchet up the pressure on an American economy that’s turned increasingly fragile as a weekslong global trade war takes a toll.” The new foray “is most likely to impact oil prices, investors said, which could ripple through the economy by causing higher transportation and gas prices, just as overall inflation throughout the economy has seemed to be contained.”
Tags: Attack, Economy, Foray, Fragile, Gas prices, Impact, Inflation, Investors, Iran, Nuclear sites, Oil prices, Ripple, Trade war, Transportation, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (June 20)
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell “offered nothing to hint at a July rate reduction, and investors eyed September as the earliest possible resumption of rate cuts paused earlier this year. With most relevant data still to come, it made little sense for the Fed chair to commit to a specific course of action.” The Fed is waiting to see “the aftereffects” of Trump’s tariffs. “Most economists expect tariffs to lift prices over the coming months, and that is a worry for the Fed because officials still don’t feel as if they completely vanquished inflation after a three-year-long fight.”
Tags: Aftereffects, Data, Economists, Fed, Inflation, Investors, Powell, Prices, Rate cuts, September, Trump’s tariffs, Waiting
Barron’s (June 19)
“The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has sent oil prices higher over the past few days. If history is anything to go by, the pressure it’s putting on global energy costs will fade before too long.” Immediate fears of a shortage “are usually exaggerated–the risk that geopolitical events create a shortage of crude almost never materialize, even though that’s always the first thing on traders’ minds.”
Tags: Conflict, Crude, Energy costs, Escalating, Exaggerated, Fears, Geopolitical events, History, Iran, Israel, Oil prices, Pressure, Risk, Shortage, Traders
