European Business Magazine (February 2)
“Xi Jinping wants the renminbi to become a global reserve currency to reduce China’s dependence on the US dollar, strengthen financial sovereignty and expand Beijing’s influence over global trade and capital flows. While the currency’s use in trade settlement is growing, capital controls and limited market access remain key barriers to full reserve-currency status.”
Tags: Barriers, Capital controls, Capital flows, China, Currency, Dependence, Dollar, Financial sovereignty, Global trade, Influence, Limited market access, Renminbi, Reserve currency, Trade settlement, U.S., Xi
New York Times (November 6)
“President Trump’s barrage on global trade appears to have taken a hit” during questioning in front of the Supreme Court. “Concerns are growing that the Supreme Court could scramble the Trump administration’s tariffs strategy. That may be welcome news for free-trade advocates, but it could also unleash more uncertainty for businesses and Wall Street.” Market reaction was rapid as “the yield on 10-year Treasury notes spiked to 4.15 percent,” a sell-off that suggests “bond holders are fretting that an adverse ruling could deprive the government of revenues needed to offset the federal deficit.”
Tags: Barrage, Bond holders, Businesses, Free trade, Fretting, Global trade, Market reaction, Revenues, Scramble, Sell-off, Supreme Court, Tariffs strategy, Treasuries, Trump, Uncertainty, Wall Street, Yield
Bloomberg (June 29)
“With just 10 days to go until President Donald Trump’s country-specific tariffs are set to resume, the White House appears poised to fall short of the sweeping global trade reforms it promised to achieve during the three months they were on hold.” It is unclear what will happen to the tariffs at the point. The President’s unpredictable approach may gain “concessions from trading partners,” but “the erratic effort has injected uncertainty into the financial markets, and created anxiety for domestic businesses. The lack of clarity around the deadline heightens the tension.”
Tags: 10 days, Anxiety, Approach, Businesses, Clarity, Concessions, Deadline, Erratic, Financial markets, Global trade, Promised, Reforms, Resume, Tariffs, Tension, Trading partners, Trump, Uncertainty, Unpredictable
Bloomberg (May 30)
According to respondents in a Bloomberg survey, “the European Central Bank will lower interest rates twice more.” They predicted “quarter-point reductions on June 5 and at September’s meeting, when new quarterly forecasts should shed more light on the effects of US President Donald Trump’s reordering of global trade.” Respondents also cautioned that the ECB “shouldn’t wait too long between those moves or investors will conclude that its easing campaign is already over.” If their predictions hold, the deposit rate would rise to 1.75%, “where the poll sees it settling through the end of 2026.”
Tags: 1.75%, Easing campaign, ECB, Global trade, Interest rates, Investors, June, Predicted, Quarterly forecasts, Reductions, Respondents, September, Trump, U.S.
Washington Post (May 29)
“A pair of courtroom defeats has blown a hole in President Donald Trump’s plan to use historically high tariffs to reshape global trade, raise hundreds of billions of dollars in new tax revenue and boost the fortunes of domestic manufacturers.”
Tags: Blown, Boost fortunes, Courtroom defeats, Domestic, Global trade, Hole, Manufacturers, Plan, Reshape, Tariffs, Tax revenue, Trump
South China Morning Post (May 9)
“Hong Kong must wake up to the dangers of US port and shipping threats “ While the world obsesses about Donald Trump’s tariffs, “a quieter but potentially more lasting confrontation is taking shape that could remake global trade infrastructure.” The Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) recently “concluded an investigation into China’s shipbuilding and maritime sectors” and “its impact on the global trade architecture could be just as profound. If Hong Kong is “to remain a serious player on the international stage, we must respond with urgency, clarity and conviction” to measures that could include “per-voyage service fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-controlled vessels calling at US ports, as well as proposed tariffs on Chinese-made ship-to-shore cranes and other key port equipment” while requiring that LNG carriers be US-built, “phasing out Chinese-made ships from the trade.”
Tags: China, Confrontation, Dangers, Global trade, Hong Kong, Infrastructure, Maritime, Per-voyage service fees, Port, Ship-to-shore cranes, Shipbuilding, Shipping threats, Tariffs, Trade Representative, Trump, U.S.
The Atlantic (April 7)
“In his quest to make America great, President Donald Trump is withdrawing the United States from global trade. American families, companies, and investors will pay a price for this…. But the repercussions don’t end there. The tariff regime is also destroying a pillar of American global power, and it will further isolate the country at a moment when others stand ready to fill the vacuum.”
Tags: Companies, Destroying, Families, Global power, Global trade, Investors, Isolate, Price, Repercussions, Tariff regime, Trump, U.S., Vacuum, Withdrawing
The Economist (February 8 Issue)
“If dealmaking means threatening catastrophe in order to win small gains, then Donald Trump is the master of the art.” Despite the collective sigh of relief when he suspended tariffs on Canada and Mexico in return for “some old promises,” the story is not necessarily over: “Donald Trump could still blow up global trade.” There is a real chance that “ideology, complacent markets and a need for revenue may still lead to big tariffs.”
Tags: Canada, Catastrophe, Complacent, Dealmaking, Global trade, Ideology, Mexico, Promises, Relief, Small gains, Tariffs, Threatening, Trump
New York Times (October 31)
“As investors, economists and world leaders weigh the prospects of Donald Trump winning the election, one of their biggest questions is how he would potentially upend global trade.” It’s not just the threat of tariffs, but also measures like what the candidate refers to as the “Trump reciprocal trade act” through which he hopes to punish the European Union for “supposedly not buying enough American-made goods.”
Tags: Candidate, Economists, Election, Global trade, Investors, Prospects, Punish, Tariffs, Threat, Trump, Upend, World leaders
New York Times (March 7)
“The pandemic has disrupted international trade, driving up the cost of shipping goods and adding a fresh challenge to the global economic recovery.” Although “the volume of global trade dipped by only 1 percent in 2020,” that fact obscures “a plunge of more than 12 percent in April and May, followed by an equally dramatic reversal. The system could not adjust, leaving containers in the wrong places, and pushing shipping prices to extraordinary heights.” Some experts believe the upheaval will last the remainder of the year.
Tags: Containers, Cost of shipping, Disrupted, Economic recovery, Global trade, International trade, Pandemic, Plunge, Reversal
