The Economist (April 25 Issue)
“Xi Jinping wants a powerful currency. America’s war has helped.” Usage of the yuan is expanding, but the currency remains far from the status of a global reserve currency. “Last month China’s currency accounted for over 8% of global trade finance, according to SWIFT, second (but a distant second) to the dollar, on over 80%.” Nevertheless, the yuan is becoming “a source of comfort for countries and firms disconcerted by America’s haphazard stewardship of the truly powerful dollar.”
Tags: 80, China, Comfort, Countries, Disconcerted, Finance, Firms, Global reserve, Global trade, Haphazard, Powerful currency, Stewardship, Swift, U.S., Xi, Yuan
Fortune (April 7)
The petrodollar “makes up the cornerstone of America’s dominance over global trade, but economists warn the currency architecture has been eroding at its edges for years now.” Indeed, the current era may bring “the biggest change in the world’s relationship to the dollar since 1974, and every day the Iran war continues, the cracks in the old system grow wider and wider. To be sure, the dollar is still overwhelmingly dominant, but it’s no longer the only game in town.”
Tags: 1974, Cornerstone, Cracks, Currency architecture, Dominance, Economists, Eroding, Global trade, Iran war, Old system, Petrodollar
Financial Times (February 20)
Last year, “China’s global trade surplus in goods surpassed $1tn.” This year, the IMF is calling on China “to slash state support for industry as international concerns mount about overcapacity in the world’s second-largest economy.” The IMF estimates “China spent about 4 per cent of its GDP subsidising companies in critical sectors and said it should reduce that by 2 percentage points in the medium term.”
Tags: $1tn, China, Economy 4%, GDP, Global trade, Goods, IMF, Industry, International concerns, Overcapacity, State support, Subsidizing, Surplus
European Business Magazine (February 2)
“Xi Jinping wants the renminbi to become a global reserve currency to reduce China’s dependence on the US dollar, strengthen financial sovereignty and expand Beijing’s influence over global trade and capital flows. While the currency’s use in trade settlement is growing, capital controls and limited market access remain key barriers to full reserve-currency status.”
Tags: Barriers, Capital controls, Capital flows, China, Currency, Dependence, Dollar, Financial sovereignty, Global trade, Influence, Limited market access, Renminbi, Reserve currency, Trade settlement, U.S., Xi
New York Times (November 6)
“President Trump’s barrage on global trade appears to have taken a hit” during questioning in front of the Supreme Court. “Concerns are growing that the Supreme Court could scramble the Trump administration’s tariffs strategy. That may be welcome news for free-trade advocates, but it could also unleash more uncertainty for businesses and Wall Street.” Market reaction was rapid as “the yield on 10-year Treasury notes spiked to 4.15 percent,” a sell-off that suggests “bond holders are fretting that an adverse ruling could deprive the government of revenues needed to offset the federal deficit.”
Tags: Barrage, Bond holders, Businesses, Free trade, Fretting, Global trade, Market reaction, Revenues, Scramble, Sell-off, Supreme Court, Tariffs strategy, Treasuries, Trump, Uncertainty, Wall Street, Yield
Bloomberg (June 29)
“With just 10 days to go until President Donald Trump’s country-specific tariffs are set to resume, the White House appears poised to fall short of the sweeping global trade reforms it promised to achieve during the three months they were on hold.” It is unclear what will happen to the tariffs at the point. The President’s unpredictable approach may gain “concessions from trading partners,” but “the erratic effort has injected uncertainty into the financial markets, and created anxiety for domestic businesses. The lack of clarity around the deadline heightens the tension.”
Tags: 10 days, Anxiety, Approach, Businesses, Clarity, Concessions, Deadline, Erratic, Financial markets, Global trade, Promised, Reforms, Resume, Tariffs, Tension, Trading partners, Trump, Uncertainty, Unpredictable
Bloomberg (May 30)
According to respondents in a Bloomberg survey, “the European Central Bank will lower interest rates twice more.” They predicted “quarter-point reductions on June 5 and at September’s meeting, when new quarterly forecasts should shed more light on the effects of US President Donald Trump’s reordering of global trade.” Respondents also cautioned that the ECB “shouldn’t wait too long between those moves or investors will conclude that its easing campaign is already over.” If their predictions hold, the deposit rate would rise to 1.75%, “where the poll sees it settling through the end of 2026.”
Tags: 1.75%, Easing campaign, ECB, Global trade, Interest rates, Investors, June, Predicted, Quarterly forecasts, Reductions, Respondents, September, Trump, U.S.
Washington Post (May 29)
“A pair of courtroom defeats has blown a hole in President Donald Trump’s plan to use historically high tariffs to reshape global trade, raise hundreds of billions of dollars in new tax revenue and boost the fortunes of domestic manufacturers.”
Tags: Blown, Boost fortunes, Courtroom defeats, Domestic, Global trade, Hole, Manufacturers, Plan, Reshape, Tariffs, Tax revenue, Trump
South China Morning Post (May 9)
“Hong Kong must wake up to the dangers of US port and shipping threats “ While the world obsesses about Donald Trump’s tariffs, “a quieter but potentially more lasting confrontation is taking shape that could remake global trade infrastructure.” The Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) recently “concluded an investigation into China’s shipbuilding and maritime sectors” and “its impact on the global trade architecture could be just as profound. If Hong Kong is “to remain a serious player on the international stage, we must respond with urgency, clarity and conviction” to measures that could include “per-voyage service fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-controlled vessels calling at US ports, as well as proposed tariffs on Chinese-made ship-to-shore cranes and other key port equipment” while requiring that LNG carriers be US-built, “phasing out Chinese-made ships from the trade.”
Tags: China, Confrontation, Dangers, Global trade, Hong Kong, Infrastructure, Maritime, Per-voyage service fees, Port, Ship-to-shore cranes, Shipbuilding, Shipping threats, Tariffs, Trade Representative, Trump, U.S.
The Atlantic (April 7)
“In his quest to make America great, President Donald Trump is withdrawing the United States from global trade. American families, companies, and investors will pay a price for this…. But the repercussions don’t end there. The tariff regime is also destroying a pillar of American global power, and it will further isolate the country at a moment when others stand ready to fill the vacuum.”
Tags: Companies, Destroying, Families, Global power, Global trade, Investors, Isolate, Price, Repercussions, Tariff regime, Trump, U.S., Vacuum, Withdrawing
