Barron’s (July 31)
“The Federal Reserve’s key inflation gauge,” which excludes food and energy “ran just slightly above expectations in June, raising additional doubts about how quickly the bank will be able to lower interest rates.” Rising 0.3% month on month and 2.8% year on year, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index surpassed consensus expectations. This week, Fed officials indicated the need before lowering rates for “more evidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward the bank’s 2% target,” but the PCE’s “stronger-than-expected result” appears to show the opposite.
Tags: 2% target, Consensus, Doubts, Energy, Evidence, Expectations, Fed, Food, Inflation, Inflation gauge, Interest rates, June, PCE
CNN (July 14)
“The Port of Los Angeles rebounded in June for a record-breaking month as importers raced to get cargo into the port before the ‘reciprocal’ tariff pause ended July 9…. President Donald Trump has since pushed that deadline to August 1.” The port, which “gets more goods from China than any other country,” benefitted from a “whipsaw” effect in June and with the tariff postponement is also expecting a flurry of activity in July. However, the National Retail Federation’s port tracker then expects a “fall by double digits through the end of the year.”
Tags: August, Cargo, China, Importers, June, Los Angeles, National Retail Federation, Port, Rebounded, Reciprocal tariff, Record breaking, Trump, Whipsaw
Bloomberg (May 30)
According to respondents in a Bloomberg survey, “the European Central Bank will lower interest rates twice more.” They predicted “quarter-point reductions on June 5 and at September’s meeting, when new quarterly forecasts should shed more light on the effects of US President Donald Trump’s reordering of global trade.” Respondents also cautioned that the ECB “shouldn’t wait too long between those moves or investors will conclude that its easing campaign is already over.” If their predictions hold, the deposit rate would rise to 1.75%, “where the poll sees it settling through the end of 2026.”
Tags: 1.75%, Easing campaign, ECB, Global trade, Interest rates, Investors, June, Predicted, Quarterly forecasts, Reductions, Respondents, September, Trump, U.S.
Washington Post (July 25)
“Companies are reshaping operations to cope with a changing climate” as climate risks also gain more prominence investment calculations. The month of June was the warmest since records began in 1850” so the “global steam bath” helps explain “why investors, regulators and credit-rating agencies are scrutinizing corporate plans for unrecognized climate risks.”
Tags: 1850, Climate risks, Corporate plans, Credit rating agencies, Investment calculations, Investors, June, Records, Regulators, Scrutinizing, Steam bath
Investment Week (July 19)
“UK retail sales volumes dropped by 1.2% in June,” marking a reversal of May’s stronger figures. Retailers are blaming “election uncertainty, along with poor weather and low footfall.” On the plus side, however, “falling UK wage growth boosts chances of August rate cut across most sectors.”
Tags: Election uncertainty, Footfall, June, May, Poor weather, Rate cut, Retail sales, Retailers, Reversal, UK, Volumes, Wage growth
The Guardian (August 21)
“A spate of recent statistics shows that the Chinese economy is faring poorly,” but the most worrying stat “is the one that we can’t see. The youth unemployment rate was suspended from the monthly economic data release, having reached a record 21.3% in June – suggesting not only that July was grimmer, but that improvement is not expected soon.”
Tags: 21.3%, China, Economic data, Economy, Grimmer, July, June, Record, Spate, Statistics, Suspended, Worrying, Youth unemployment rate
Wall Street Journal (July 13)
“U.S. consumer inflation accelerated to 9.1% in June, a pace not seen in more than four decades, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively to slow rapid price increases throughout the economy.” But there are also reasons to think inflation will be coming down as “investor expectations of slowing economic growth world-wide have led to a decline in commodity prices,” consumer spending is shifting, and excess inventory has retailers warning “of the need to discount goods, especially apparel and home goods.”
Tags: 9.1%, Aggressively, Commodity prices, Consumer spending, Discount, Economy, Excess inventory, Expectations, Fed, Growth, Inflation, Investor, June, Price increases, Retailers, Slowing, U.S.
Mansion Global (July 11)
“The market has cooled since June, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 0.75% to help curb inflation.” Housing inventory is rising, “finally giving buyers some options and negotiability with sellers.” As a result, “nearly 15% of home contracts in the U.S. were canceled in June,” which had approximately 60,000 cancellations. That’s up 12.7% over May and 11.2% year on year.
Tags: Buyers, Contracts, Cooled, Fed, Housing inventory, Inflation, Interest rates, June, Market, Negotiability, Options, Sellers, U.S.
Washington Post (June 25)
“In a blistering hot June around the Northern Hemisphere, in which heat records have fallen on every continent, Japan is the latest to swelter. On Saturday, temperatures there shot above 104 degrees (40 Celsius) for the first time on record during the month, another clear sign of the sweeping effects of human-caused climate change.”
Tags: 40 degrees, Blistering, Climate change, Effects, Hot, Human-caused, Japan, June, Records, Sign, Swelter, Temperatures
MarketWatch (July 13)
“U.S. stock indexes on Tuesday morning edged slightly lower from Monday’s record closes, as investors assessed a hotter-than-expected consumer inflation report for June, which suggests to some that the Federal Reserve may need to consider removing some of its monetary policy measures to avoid an overheated post-COVID economy.”
Tags: Consumer inflation, Economy, Fed, Investors, June, Monetary policy, Overheated, Post-Covid, Record closes, Stock, U.S.
