Fortune (March 22)
“Investor Danny Moses, best known for his oracular bet against mortgage-backed debt before the 2008 stock market crash, is warning of another economic red flag.” Moses believes “the market has not yet accounted for the negative economic impact of the mass cuts to government jobs carried out by the Elon Musk-championed Department of Government Efficiency.” While “disruptions in consumer confidence” are already apparent, they “have yet to be priced into the market.” He expects an “unvirtuous cycle” to result “as more fired federal workers look for private sector jobs” and “find fewer opportunities because of shrinking revenue streams in government contracts.”
Tags: 2008, Debt, Disruptions, DOGE, Economic, Government jobs, Impact, Investor, Mass cuts, Mortgage-backed, Moses, Musk, Negative, Private-sector, Red flag, Stock market crash, Unvirtuous cycle, Warning
Fortune (September 18)
“Any prominent investor comparing China with Japan prior to its lost decades of stagnation ought to be alarming.” It’s even more alarming when it’s Ray Dalio, the founder of massive hedge fund, Bridgewater. Long known as China bull, he now “fears the property crisis in China has left local governments unable to service their debt by extracting equity through land sales” and that China’s economy now “faces problems as severe as Japan in 1990.”
Tags: Alarming, Bridgewater, China, Dalio, Debt, Economy, Equity, Founder, Hedge-fund, Investor, Japan, Local governments, Property crisis, Severe, Stagnation
Bloomberg (October 27)
“The VIX is at 20, stocks are on the brink of their worst October in five years, and every other day the bond market throws a fit. For equity bulls conditioned to dive in at any sign of weakness, it’s getting to be too much. Across investor categories, they’re pulling money out” and moving to a defensive posture.” But “from a contrarian standpoint, all the gloom is a positive, suggesting latent buying power should sentiment ever flip.”
Tags: Bond market, Buying power, Contrarian, Defensive posture, Equity bulls, Fit, Gloom, Investor, Latent, October, Positive, Sentiment, VIX, Weakness, Worst
Fortune (May 6)
“Warren Buffett, whose economic insights are craved for Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s deep ties to the American economy, had a gloomy prediction for his own businesses: the good times may be over. The billionaire investor expects earnings at the majority of Berkshire’s operations to fall this year as a long-predicted downturn slows economic activity.”
Tags: Berkshire Hathaway, Billionaire, Buffett, Craved, Downturn, Earnings, Economy, Gloomy, Insights, Investor, Predicted, Prediction
Fortune (April 11)
“Billionaire investor Warren Buffett is visiting Japan for the first time in more than a decade, and his thoughts are on his large—and growing—investments in the East Asian nation.” So far, it appears that “Buffett is looking to increase those stakes again.”
Tags: Billionaire, Buffett, Increase, Investments, Investor, Japan, Stakes
Reuters (March 1)
“Strong investor inflows into bond markets this year mean traders and bankers are confident the European Central Bank will have a smooth start to unwinding its huge bond holdings, but the long term impact of its ‘quantitative tightening’ is a big unknown.”
Tags: Bankers, Bond markets, Confident, ECB, Holdings, Impact, Inflows, Investor, Long term, Quantitative tightening, Smooth, Strong, Traders, Unknown, Unwinding
New York Times (February 2)
The “disconnect” between cautious Fed statements and “investor expectations” is rooted in the tension between current data and projections. “Many forecasters expect the labor market, as well as inflation in many kinds of services, to weaken this year as the full effect of the Fed’s rate moves plays out; the Fed, on the other hand, is waiting for clearer signs in the data.”
Tags: Data, Disconnect, Expectations, Fed, Forecasters, Inflation, Investor, Labor market, Projections, Rates, Services, Tension
Investment Week (January 23)
“Chinese equities took a beating in the year of the tiger, with the collapse of the nation’s property market, stringent restrictions on some of its sectors and its zero-Covid policy all hampering investor interest.” In contrast, the year of the rabbit is beginning “in a remarkably different place…. Dynamics are now shifting in a favourable direction, benefiting Chinese stocks and global growth.” Nevertheless, “investment experts remain wary and advise caution.”
Tags: Caution, China, Collapse, Dynamics, Equities, Experts, Favourable, Growth, Investor, Property market, Rabbit, Restrictions, Stocks, Tiger, Zero COVID
CNBC (September 24)
“The airline race for a breakthrough fuel to cut one billion tons of carbon is just starting.” As a result of the Inflation Reduction Act, “more investor money is expected to flow into green hydrogen… with climate analysts describing the tax credits as being a huge driver for sustainable aviation fuels because science aside, the biggest challenge with scaling up these operations and SAF production has been the financial incentive.”
Tags: Airline, Breakthrough, Carbon, Climate analysts, Driver, Fuel, Green hydrogen, Inflation Reduction Act, Investor, Money, Race, SAF, Scaling up, Tax credits
Wall Street Journal (July 13)
“U.S. consumer inflation accelerated to 9.1% in June, a pace not seen in more than four decades, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively to slow rapid price increases throughout the economy.” But there are also reasons to think inflation will be coming down as “investor expectations of slowing economic growth world-wide have led to a decline in commodity prices,” consumer spending is shifting, and excess inventory has retailers warning “of the need to discount goods, especially apparel and home goods.”
Tags: 9.1%, Aggressively, Commodity prices, Consumer spending, Discount, Economy, Excess inventory, Expectations, Fed, Growth, Inflation, Investor, June, Price increases, Retailers, Slowing, U.S.
