The Economist (July 4)
“We woz wrong about oil. The market bested us…. There is no shame in that. We stick our neck out and consequently risk having it chopped from time to time.” This is one of those times. Before May, “we said oil traders were in ‘la-la land’ thinking that oil prices would fall to $88 by the end of the year. Today Brent crude costs just over $70 a barrel. Our prediction went about as well as the war.”
Tags: $70 bbl, $88 bbl, Brent crude, La-la land, Market, Oil, Oil prices, Prediction, Shame, Traders
Barron’s (June 17)
President Trump inked an Iran Deal that “leaves more questions than answers.” While traders are “optimistic that one way or another, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and oil will resume its prewar flows,” their optimism is not shared by many analysts. “Oil analysts remain skeptical as to how soon, if ever, shipping will resume through the strait at prewar levels. That’s in part because it is unclear if Iran’s agreement not to charge tolls for 60 days, as stated in the memo, will become permanent.”
Tags: Analysts, Iran Deal, Oil, Optimistic, Permanent, Prewar flows, Questions, Reopen, Resume, Shipping, Skeptical, Strait of Hormuz, Tolls, Traders, Trump
Bloomberg (April 25)
“The Strait of Hormuz oil shock has yet to crash demand as the rich world borrows from its stocks and pays up to secure supply. Traders are now sounding the alarm that a harsh adjustment is coming.” The IEA believes “global oil demand is on track to slump the most in five years this month.” Things will surely get worse. “A billion barrels of supply loss is already all-but guaranteed — more than double the emergency inventories that governments released” since the conflict began. “With a stalemate between US President Donald Trump and his Iranian adversaries dragging on, the impact is increasingly shifting west — and to products that are central to consumers’ everyday lives.”
Tags: Adversaries, Alarm, Billion barrels, Conflict, Crash, Demand, Emergency inventories, Harsh, IEA, Impact, Iran, Oil shock, Rich world, Slump, Stalemate, Strait of Hormuz, Supply, Traders, Trump
Bloomberg (December 8)
“Foreign investors are storming into Japan’s once-placid government bond market, exposing the world’s second-largest pool of sovereign debt to bouts of volatility sparked by traders thousands of miles away.” Overseas investors are “on course to scoop up more Japanese government bonds this year than in any period since records began in 2005” and currently “account for roughly 65% of monthly cash JGB transactions, up from 12% in 2009.” Welcomed by some, this “increased foreign involvement also raises the risk of a rapid or unruly retreat.”
Tags: 2005, 65%, Bond market, Foreign investors, Japan, JGB transactions, Overseas, Retreat, Risk, Sovereign debt, Traders, Volatility
Bloomberg (November 15)
Next week a number of companies will release earnings results, and major retailers look primed to steal the show from “AI behemoth Nvidia” as traders seek to better grasp “the health of consumers and the economy.” Results from “Walmart Inc., Target Corp., Home Depot Inc. and other companies that sell the goods Americans buy are likely to overshadow Nvidia because they offer insights into spending patterns at a time when there’s scant data for Wall Street to go on.”
Tags: AI, Companies, Consumers, Economy, Health, Home Depot, Major retailers, Nvidia, Overshadow, Results, Spending patterns, Target, Traders, Walmart
Bloomberg (October 10)
“Betting against the dollar has been the dominant trade this year in the $9.6 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market, but the wager is starting to stumble. The world’s primary reserve currency is around a two-month high even as the US government shutdown drags on, and traders in Asia and Europe say hedge funds are adding options bets that the rebound versus most major peers will extend into year-end.”
Tags: $9.6 trillion, Asia, Dollar, Dominant, Forex, Government, Hedge funds, Market, Options bets, Rebound, Reserve currency, Shutdown, Stumble, Trade, Traders, Two-month high, U.S.
Fortune (September 3)
“As traders head into the final leg of 2025 they are not doing so with overconfidence. In fact, if this week’s bond market is anything to go by, they’re nervous.” Safe haven gold has hit record highs and a “global bond selloff” is creating concern over national debt. “The upset isn’t confined to America alone. In Europe, French government bonds…similarly spiked toward a 5% yield and sit at 4.49% at the time of writing, marking its highest run since 2009.” Arguably, the U.K. is getting hit hardest, “with 30-year gilts pushing above 5.7%, their highest level since the spring of 1998.”
Tags: 2025, Bond market, France, Gilts, Global bond selloff, Gold, National debt, Nervous, Overconfidence, Record highs, Safe haven, Traders, U.K., U.S.
Barron’s (June 19)
“The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has sent oil prices higher over the past few days. If history is anything to go by, the pressure it’s putting on global energy costs will fade before too long.” Immediate fears of a shortage “are usually exaggerated–the risk that geopolitical events create a shortage of crude almost never materialize, even though that’s always the first thing on traders’ minds.”
Tags: Conflict, Crude, Energy costs, Escalating, Exaggerated, Fears, Geopolitical events, History, Iran, Israel, Oil prices, Pressure, Risk, Shortage, Traders
Bloomberg (May 19)
“‘Sell America’ is back as Moody’s pushes 30-year yield to 5%.” Just a week after traders “had to react quickly to weekend news of an improvement in trade relations between the US and China,” they will again have to paddle hard, but this time in the opposite direction. Rising Treasury yields are also expected to “complicate the government’s ability to cut back by running up its interest payments, while also threatening to weaken the economy by forcing up rates on loans such as mortgages and credit cards.”
Tags: 5%, China, Economy, Government, Interest payments, Loans, Moody, Mortgages, Rates, Sell America, Threatening, Traders, Treasury yields, U.S., Weaken
Market Watch (January 13)
“Last week, a batch of blockbuster U.S. economic data prompted traders to consider the possibility that the Federal Reserve may need to pause interest-rate cuts until summer. As a result, stocks got crushed, with the S&P 500 erasing most of its postelection gains and the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting its worst start to a year since 2016.”
Tags: 2016, Blockbuster, Crushed, Dow Jones, Economic data, Fed, Gains, Interest rate cuts, Postelection, S&P 500, Stocks, Summer, Traders, U.S.
