Bloomberg (January 26)
“Oil fell as President Donald Trump imposed his first set of sanctions and tariffs in a move that highlighted risks to the global economy and to trade.” U.S. tariffs and other sanctions have now been imposed on Columbia, and the Trump “administration has also threatened actions on flows of goods from a host of other nations, including Canada and China.” On top of that economic uncertainty, Trump is advocating for “OPEC to bring down prices, potentially raising the pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine.”
Tags: Canada, China, Columbia, Global economy, Oil, OPEC, Prices, Risks, Russia, Sanctions, Tariffs, Threat, Trade, Trump, U.S., Uncertainty, War
South China Morning Post (November 14)
“China’s trade with Russia is set to hit new highs this year as payment barriers have been partly addressed in recent months, but analysts warned that US president-elect Donald Trump’s return could be accompanied with more hits to bilateral trade.” Continuing financial sanctions are another potential complication to “Russia’s efforts to sell products to China.”
Tags: Analysts, Bilateral trade, China, Financial sanctions, Highs, Payment barriers, Russia, Trade, Trump, U.S.
Foreign Policy (August 1)
The U.S. economic pivot to Asia began in 2011, but its tenor “has switched from economic offense to defense.” In the intervening years, “America’s positive economic agenda in Asia—opening markets, lowering barriers to trade, sealing agreements—bore virtually no fruit.” Largely driven by China, the U.S. instead raised tariffs, imposed sanctions, and “moved to de-risk and ‘friendshore’” supply chains.
Tags: 2011, Agenda, Agreements, Asia, China, De-risk, Defense, Economic offense, Economic pivot, Friendshore, Lowering barriers, Opening markets, Positive, Sanctions, Tariffs, Trade, U.S.
New York Times (June 22)
“With billions of dollars in trade at stake, China and the European Union have agreed to engage in talks to try to resolve an escalating dispute over tariffs.” To block the threatened tariffs on electric vehicles, “Beijing would need to persuade a majority of European Union countries, representing at least 65 percent of the bloc’s population, to overrule the European Commission” and it is expected to strategically target Germany, France, Italy and other key countries.
Tags: China, Dispute, Escalating, EU, EVs, France, Germany, Overrule, Resolve, Target, Tariffs, Trade
Market Watch (May 25)
“On May 28, a new rule will go into effect that will affect almost every stock, bond, and ETF trade in U.S. markets,” requiring settlement within one day. Reducing failure to deliver (FTD) “risk is one of the reasons that industry players have been pushing to get to a T+1 settlement cycle since the 1990s, when the settlement cycle was still at T+5. Over the years, the U.S. has moved to a T+3 settlement cycle, then T+2 and now finally T+1.”
Tags: 1990s, Bond, Effect, ETF, Failure to deliver, May 28, Risk, Rule, Settlement cycle, Stock, T+1, T+2, T+3, T+5, Trade, U.S. markets
Barron’s (November 12)
“Germany’s economy, historically the powerhouse of Europe, is going through a rough patch. Its reliance on Russian energy and trade with China will have to be scaled back and new sources of growth found.” The nation’s GDP “declined in the third quarter, bringing down the rest of the euro zone with it,” and the OECD now “expects Germany to be the second worst performer in its group of 30 advanced economies this year, ahead only of Argentina.”
Tags: Argentina, China, Economy, Europe, GDP, Germany, Growth, OECD, Powerhouse, Reliance, Russian energy, Trade, Worst performer
Institutional Investor (October 20)
“Out of 770 institutional investors around the globe that are collectively responsible for $34.7 trillion in assets, 52 percent said in June that as de-globalization accelerates they will try to invest in companies with more localized supply chains, according to an annual study by Schroders.” While “trade and technology continue to cross borders and, generally speaking, the world is still shrinking,” geopolitical tension and war have turned “de-globalization into a megatrend creating winners and losers in business.”
Tags: De-globalization, Geopolitical, Institutional investors, Invest, Localized supply chains, Losers, Megatrend, Responsible, Schroders, Technology, Trade, War, Winners
Bloomberg (August 8)
“China’s trade plunged in July as slowing global demand clouded the outlook for exports, while domestic pressures weighed on imports in a hit to the economic recovery.” Exports (dollar denominated) fell 14.5% while imports decreased 12.4%. Both figures “were worse than what economists polled by Bloomberg had expected.”
Tags: Bloomberg, China, Domestic pressures, Economic recovery, Economists, Exports, Global demand, Imports, Outlook, Plunged, Trade
Economic Times (March 28)
Regulators suspect a single “trade on Deutsche Bank AG’s credit default swaps… fuelled a global selloff on Friday.” The roughly £5 million bet was for swaps on the bank’s junior debt. Likely due to market illiquidity, along with market jitters, the “knock-on effect was a rout that sent banking stocks tumbling, government bonds higher and CDS prices for lenders soaring.”
Tags: Bonds, CDS, Deutsche Bank, Global selloff, Illiquidity, Jitters, Junior debt, Market, Regulators, Rout, Suspect, Trade, Tumbling
Bloomberg (January 17)
“Trade between the US and China is on track to break records, a signal of resilient links between the world’s top economies amid the heated national security rhetoric in Washington and fears of ‘decoupling.’” Data for the first 11 months of implies “imports and exports in 2022 will add up to an all-time high, or at least come very close, when the final report comes out Feb. 7.”
Tags: 2022, China, Decoupling, Exports, Fears, Heated, Imports, National security, Resilient, Rhetoric, Top economies, Trade, U.S.