Barron’s (April 5)
The global economy is in for a “crude awakening.” Even under the best (or least worst) scenario, the Iran “war will shave about a percentage point off global economic growth, taking it down to 2% this year. Growth forecasts for large, developed economies—Japan, France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom—were modest before the war at around 1%. If the conflict extends past June, GDP growth for these countries could evaporate, while inflation keeps rising.”
Tags: 2%, Conflict, Crude awakening, Developed economies, Economic growth, Forecasts, France, GDP, Germany, Global economy, Inflation, Iran war, Italy, Japan, Scenario, UK
New York Times (March 4)
“All eyes are on the Gulf states’ vulnerable energy facilities and on the Strait of Hormuz, the transitway for crude oil and natural gas that has been paralyzed by Iranian forces” as Iran seeks “to drive up the cost of war….. Unless energy shipments quickly return to normal levels, the upheaval could batter the global economy and ratchet up pressure on President Trump.”
Tags: Batter, Cost of war, Crude oil, Energy facilities, Energy shipments, Global economy, Gulf states, Iranian forces, Natural gas, Paralyzed, Pressure, Strait of Hormuz, Trump, Upheaval, Vulnerable
The Week (February 9)
“Climate change has led to a marked decrease in salaries across the country, including in places that haven’t experienced significant temperature changes. The problem is likely not limited to the U.S. and is expected to worsen without intervention.” With risks “expected to increase. The global economy could also be significantly altered and likely already has.”
Tags: Climate change, Decrease, Global economy, Intervention, Risks, Salaries, Temperature changes, U.S., Worsen
Washington Post (January 25)
“The open split that emerged last week between the United States and some of its closest allies highlights the seismic changes that are in store for the global economy amid the transition from full-blown U.S.-led globalization to an unruly new order.”
Tags: Allies, Global economy, Globalization, New order, Open split, Seismic changes, Transition, U.S., Unruly
CNN (January 15)
“For China, the record $1.2 trillion annual trade surplus its authorities reported Wednesday is resounding proof of the resilience of its economy in the face of US trade friction.” The record surplus “also tells another story: one of the far-reaching potential for China’s massive export engine to reshape the global economy – and help Beijing win more leverage in its rivalry with the United States.”
Tags: $1.2 trillion, China, Economy, Export engine, Friction, Global economy, Leverage, Potential, Proof, Record, Resilience, Trade surplus, U.S.
Politico (October 19)
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde believes the global economy is “in transformation,” brought about especially by two factors. “One is the tariffs, which have changed the map of trade around the world and reconstituted new alliances and reformed the way in which we trade with each other…. The second major transformation is the impact of artificial intelligence on everything we do from data management to dating and everything in between.”
Tags: Alliances, Artificial intelligence, Data management, ECB, Global economy, Impact, Lagarde, Tariffs, Trade, Transformation
Wall Street Journal (August 18)
“The global economy appears to have taken a sharp rise in U.S. tariffs and increased uncertainty about the future of the international trading system in its stride, but faces stronger headwinds as tax rates continue to climb.” Many countries chose not to retaliate. “Forgoing retaliation may count as a series of losses for them and a sequence of wins for the U.S. But those choices are also wins for the global economy, and for now a return to the tit-for-tat mayhem of the 1930s seems unlikely.” The tariffs have nevertheless been detrimental, “but it will take some time before the impact of tariff increases that are already settled is clear, and it is likely that further increases in duties will add to the damage.”
Tags: 1930s, Climb, Damage, Duties, Global economy, Headwinds, Impact, International trading system, Mayhem, Retaliate, Tariffs, Tax rates, Tit-for-tat, U.S., Uncertainty
CNN (May 1)
“Another day, another piece of evidence that President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war with friends and foes is hurting the global economy. Today: Japan’s central bank cut its economic growth forecast for the country in half.” The Bank of Japan “lowered its expectations for 2025 gross domestic product growth to an anemic 0.5%, down from the previous projection of +1.1%, made in January.”
Tags: 0.5%, 2025, Anemic, BOJ, Economic growth, Escalating, Evidence, Expectations, Foes, Forecast, Friends, GDP, Global economy, Hurting, Japan, Trade war, Trump
Reuters (March 18)
Top banking heads in Australia believe the Trump administration’s “protectionist policies would likely strain the global economy in the medium term with higher costs and lack of certainty.” However, they believe Australia is “better placed than Canada, which sells 85% of its exports to the U.S.” In contrast, Australia’s U.S. exports are, “small compared to its overall export trade,” amounting annually to only about $15 billion.
Tags: $15 billion, Australia, Banking, Canada, Certainty, Exports, Global economy, Higher costs, Protectionist policies, Strain, Trade, Trump administration
Bloomberg (January 26)
“Oil fell as President Donald Trump imposed his first set of sanctions and tariffs in a move that highlighted risks to the global economy and to trade.” U.S. tariffs and other sanctions have now been imposed on Columbia, and the Trump “administration has also threatened actions on flows of goods from a host of other nations, including Canada and China.” On top of that economic uncertainty, Trump is advocating for “OPEC to bring down prices, potentially raising the pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine.”
Tags: Canada, China, Columbia, Global economy, Oil, OPEC, Prices, Risks, Russia, Sanctions, Tariffs, Threat, Trade, Trump, U.S., Uncertainty, War
