Wall Street Journal (August 18)
“The global economy appears to have taken a sharp rise in U.S. tariffs and increased uncertainty about the future of the international trading system in its stride, but faces stronger headwinds as tax rates continue to climb.” Many countries chose not to retaliate. “Forgoing retaliation may count as a series of losses for them and a sequence of wins for the U.S. But those choices are also wins for the global economy, and for now a return to the tit-for-tat mayhem of the 1930s seems unlikely.” The tariffs have nevertheless been detrimental, “but it will take some time before the impact of tariff increases that are already settled is clear, and it is likely that further increases in duties will add to the damage.”
Tags: 1930s, Climb, Damage, Duties, Global economy, Headwinds, Impact, International trading system, Mayhem, Retaliate, Tariffs, Tax rates, Tit-for-tat, U.S., Uncertainty
Financial Times (October 22)
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that “greater global protectionism will endanger the world’s growth outlook… as a possible Donald Trump victory in next month’s US election raises the prospect of sharp tariff increases.” The IMF’s World Economic Outlook warns that “if higher tariffs hit a ‘sizeable swath’ of world trade by mid-2025, it would wipe 0.8 per cent from economic output next year and 1.3 per cent in 2026.” If, however, widespread tit-for-tat measures ensue, the results could be considerably more destructive.
Tags: 2025, Economic output, Election, Endanger, Global protectionism, Growth outlook, IMF, Tariffs, Tit-for-tat, Trump, U.S., Victory, Warned, World trade
Reuters (October 2)
“Tensions between the West and China are rising, from tit-for-tat trade tariffs to tech rivalry and spying allegations. The ramifications for global markets are significant, with Washington and Beijing’s determination to loosen dependence on each other fraying long-established supply chains. That could help keep inflation and interest rates elevated. Still, there are gains for emerging nations and tech giants on the right side of the power battle.”
Tags: China, Dependence, Emerging nations, Fraying, Global markets, Inflation, Interest rates, Ramifications, Rising, Spying, Supply chains, Tech rivalry, Tensions, Tit-for-tat, Trade tariffs, West
Reuters (July 5)
“Investors watching the trade tit-for-tat between the United States and China may well have reason to fear the havoc a full blown conflict between the world’s two biggest economies could wreak on the global economy.” Furthermore, the collateral damage could be worse than that done to the principals. Due to global supply chains, countries like Taiwan, Hungary, the Czech Republic, South Korea, and Singapore could be equally if not more vulnerable” to fall out from the spat between the U.S. and China.
Tags: China, Collateral damage, Conflict, Czech Republic, Global economy, Hungary, Investors, Singapore, South Korea, Supply chains, Taiwan, Tit-for-tat, Trade, U.S., Vulnerable
