New York Times (December 26)
“Despite lingering inflation, Americans increased their spending this holiday season, early data shows. That comes as a big relief for retailers that had spent much of the year fearing the economy would soon weaken and consumer spending would fall. Year on year, “retail sales from Nov. 1 to Dec. 24 increased 3.1 percent.”
Tags: Consumer spending, Economy, Fearing, Holiday season, Increased, Inflation, Lingering, Relief, Retail sales, Retailers, Weaken
New York Times (November 27)
“The inflation risk stalking the markets eased over the summer,” but is now “front and center again as investors contend with a Trumponomics crackdown on immigration, a rising trade-war risk and a potential bonanza of tax cuts.” Trump’s “latest trade threats show how uncertain the outlook could be”. Since he vowed “to impose tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico…analysts have been gaming out the potential impact.” It could be an opening gambit of little consequence, but “economists fear that it could add bottlenecks and costs to supply chains and reignite inflation, and that it could scramble the Fed’s policy on interest rates.”
Tags: Bottlenecks, Canada, China, Costs, Crackdown, Fed, Immigration, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Markets, Mexico, Risk, Supply chains, Tariffs, Tax cuts, Trade war, Trumponomics, Uncertain
Wall Street Journal (November 26)
“Trump’s promise to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% on Chinese imports on the first day of his presidency could lead to higher prices, just as the country appears to be turning a corner on inflation.” Economists at Yale’s Budget Lab calculated that these tariffs, combined with the three countries’ expected retaliatory measures, “would raise U.S. consumer prices by 0.75% next year,” which would “amount to more than $1000 in lost purchasing power per household.”
Tags: $1000, Canada, China, Consumer prices, Economists, Imports, Inflation, Mexico, Purchasing power, Retaliatory measures, Tariffs, Trump, U.S., Yale
Fortune (November 11)
“Russia’s inflation has gone from bad to worse as it continues to wage war against Ukraine, causing even everyday goods to feel out of reach for the average person.” For example, “the price of a slab of butter has increased by 25.7% since December, prompting a slew of thefts across Russia and highlighting the state of the wartime economy.” To prevent shoplifting, supermarkets and retailers are now “attaching anti-theft tags to cans of meat… butter and other grocery staples.”
Tags: Anti-theft tags, Butter, Economy, Grocery, Inflation, Meat, Price, Retailers, Russia, Shoplifting, Supermarkets, Thefts, Ukraine, War
The Economist (November 6)
“The return of Trumponomics excites markets but frightens the world. It may bring stronger growth, higher inflation and a global trade war.”
Tags: Excites, Frightens, Global trade war, Growth, Inflation, Markets, Return, Trumponomics, World
CNN (October 30)
“The US economy seems to have pulled off a remarkable and historic achievement.” James Bullard, the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, is among the “economists and officials who told CNN the economy has finally pulled off” a soft landing. “That scenario, in which inflation is tamed without a recession” would mark “an exceptionally rare achievement.”
Tags: Bullard, Economists, Economy, Fed, Historic, Inflation, Officials, Rare, Recession, Remarkable, Soft landing, St. Louis, Tamed, U.S.
Bloomberg (October 21)
“The global economy is heading toward year end with unexpected tailwinds as slowing inflation clears a path for an unlikely soft landing. But while the economics side of the equation is looking up, political hurdles lie ahead.” The biggest hurdle may be the U.S. election. “The resilience of the world’s major economies is about to be tested” if Trump is elected and institutes his tariff program.
Tags: Economics, Election, Global economy, Inflation, Major economies, Political hurdles, Resilience, Soft landing, Tailwinds, Trump, U.S., Unexpected
Financial Times (October 10)
“Germany is facing its first two-year recession since the early 2000s as the government downgraded its 2024 growth forecast for the eurozone’s largest economy.” Hurdles have included “soaring inflation, high interest rates and energy costs driven higher by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine,” along with longer term “structural problems, such as Germany’s dire skills shortage, years of under-investment in infrastructure and excessive red tape.”
Tags: Economy, Energy costs, eurozone, Germany, Growth forecast, Hurdles, Inflation, Infrastructure, Interest rates, Recession, Russia, Skills shortage, Structural problems, Ukraine, Under-investment
Bloomberg (October 7)
“The ‘no landing’ scenario–a situation where the US economy keeps growing, inflation reignites and the Federal Reserve has little room to cut interest rates–had largely disappeared as a bond-market talking point in recent months.” After “setting up for slowing growth,” traders are undergoing another “wrenching recalibration” on the heels of a “blowout” jobs report “showing the fastest job growth in six months, a surprising drop in US unemployment and higher wages.” Treasury yields surged and investors are “furiously reversing course on bets for a larger-than-normal half-point interest-rate reduction.”
Tags: Blowout, Bond market, Economy, Fed, Growing, Inflation, Interest rates, Jobs, No landing, Recalibration, Scenario, Traders, Treasury yields, U.S., Unemployment, Wages
Reuters (September 28)
“Treasury yields and the dollar fell while the Dow registered a record closing high on Friday as a subdued U.S. inflation report lifted expectations of an outsized interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s November policy meeting.” On top of that, “a global stock index also reached a record high, helped by China’s stimulus boost, and European shares posted an all-time high close.”
Tags: China, Dollar, Dow, Europe, Expectations, Fed, Global stock, High, Index, Inflation, Interest rate, Policy meeting, Record, Stimulus, U.S., Yields
