Barron’s (April 5)
The global economy is in for a “crude awakening.” Even under the best (or least worst) scenario, the Iran “war will shave about a percentage point off global economic growth, taking it down to 2% this year. Growth forecasts for large, developed economies—Japan, France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom—were modest before the war at around 1%. If the conflict extends past June, GDP growth for these countries could evaporate, while inflation keeps rising.”
Tags: 2%, Conflict, Crude awakening, Developed economies, Economic growth, Forecasts, France, GDP, Germany, Global economy, Inflation, Iran war, Italy, Japan, Scenario, UK
MarketWatch (March 13)
“America’s “goldilocks” economy is over. The next seven days of the Iran conflict will set the stage for stagflation or global recession.” The U.S. was nearing perfection with unemployment at 4.4% and inflation down to 2.4%. Instead of basking in economic triumph, the U.S. now frets over a potential “doubling of the oil price,” which historically “coincides with a global recession. In today’s terms, that is $120-$140 a barrel. Brent crude brushed the bottom of that range earlier this week.”
Tags: $120-$140 bbl, Brent crude, Conflict, Doubling, Economy, Global recession, Goldilocks, Inflation, Iran, Oil price, Stagflation, U.S., Unemployment
Bloomberg (February 19)
Just released minutes from the January 27-28 FOMC meeting reveal Federal Reserve officials are “surprisingly wary of cutting interest rates…, with several even suggesting the central bank may need to raise rates if inflation remains stubbornly high.” The minutes make “clear the Fed is shifting further away from agreeing on another cut.”
Tags: Central bank, Cut, Federal Reserve, FOMC, Inflation, Interest rates, January 27-28, Minutes, Officials, Raise, Released
Market Watch (January 14)
“For investors, a meaningful erosion of central-bank independence would weaken the Fed’s inflation-targeting discipline and be negative for both stocks and bonds, as markets have long operated under the assumption that Fed independence will hold.” Although “we do not expect the Trump administration to capture the Federal Reserve, continued pressure on central-bank independence is likely to weigh on the U.S. dollar.” Ultimately, “market calm is conditional on the Senate acting as a backstop to Fed independence. If that condition is misread, markets will break down.”
Tags: Bonds, Capture, Central bank, Discipline, Dollar, Erosion, Fed, Independence, Inflation, Investors, Markets, Negative, Senate, Stocks, Trump, U.S., Weaken
Reuters (January 5)
“The world economy is making a surprising habit of shrugging off unpleasant shocks…. Since 2020, the planet has weathered a global pandemic, inflation, sharply rising interest rates, and the outbreak of war without a major slump. In 2025, a tsunami of enthusiasm about artificial intelligence offset the disruptive effects of U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade turmoil, keeping economies and financial markets humming. Opposing forces are preparing to battle for supremacy again in 2026. The stage is set for a turbulent contest between gain and pain.”
Tags: 2020, 2026, AI, Disruptive, Financial markets, Gain, Global pandemic, Inflation, Interest rates, Trade turmoil, Trump, Unpleasant shocks, War, World economy
MarketWatch (December 22)
“The kitchen sink was thrown at the economy in 2025 — punishing tariffs, higher inflation, rising unemployment — but the U.S. might still be growing at an above-average speed in a sign of surprising pluck.” Can the momentum continue? AI may deliver continuing investment and efficiency gains. In addition, 2026 “should also benefit from lower interest rates, relaxed tariffs, fewer taxes and regulations, and more government spending in a midterm-election year.”
Tags: 2025, 2026, AI, Economy, Efficiency gains, Inflation, Interest rates, Investment, Momentum, Regulations, Tariffs, Taxes, U.S., Unemployment
Fortune (December 11)
“For all the volatility 2025 has endured, things have actually turned out relatively well: The S&P 500 is up by more than 17%, inflation hasn’t spiked despite an onslaught of tariffs, and the unemployment rate has stayed fairly steady. Analysts and investors are generally feeling positive about 2026 as a result.” This may be overlooking signs of weakness. “Beneath the relatively robust macroeconomic picture, cracks are beginning to show.”
Tags: 17%, 2025, 2026, Analysts, Endured, Inflation, Investors, Macroeconomic, Overlooking, Positive, S&P 500, Steady, Tariffs, Unemployment, Volatility, Weakness
Reuters (December 5)
“Assets that rise rapidly above their long-term trend are usually set for a fall…. This year, gold has risen more than 60% in dollar terms, its best performance in 46 years. Adjusted for inflation, gold has never been more expensive. Either we are witnessing another bubble or it’s a paradigm shift.” It may be the latter as speculative euphoria has focused on cryptocurrencies while “central bankers have significantly increased their gold holdings.”
Tags: $60, Assets, Bubble, Central bankers, Cryptocurrencies, Dollar, Expensive, Fall, Gold, Holdings, Inflation, Paradigm shift, Performance, Speculative, Trend
New York Times (December 1)
“Investors had been growing more optimistic that the Fed will cut interest rates at next week’s meeting” while holiday sales “also bolstered the rally.” Still, “the consumer is still a major concern…. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have flagged that a recent rise in spending may be masking a concerning economic undercurrent: Many lower-income consumers are struggling with stubbornly high inflation and an uncertain labor market.”
Tags: Analysts, BoA, Consumer, Fed, GS, Holiday sales, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Labor market, Lower-income, Optimistic, Rally, Spending, Struggling, Undercurrent
Fortune (October 24)
“Some economists have called the “K shaped economy.” Affluent households continue to spend freely on travel, entertainment, and premium goods, keeping service-sector inflation stubborn. Lower- and middle-income consumers, by contrast, are pushing back, trading down, stretching budgets, or delaying purchases altogether.”
Tags: Affluent, Consumers, Economists, Entertainment, Households, Inflation, K shaped economy, Middle-income, Premium goods, Service-sector, Spend, Travel
