Washington Post (September 10)
“After months of gloom, Americans are finally starting to feel better about the economy and more resigned to inflation. Consumer sentiment, which hit rock bottom in June, has begun inching up in recent weeks. Gas prices are down. Decades-high inflation appears to be easing.” And there are signs that “many families are learning to deal with higher prices.”
Tags: Americans, Consumer sentiment, Easing, Economy, Families, Gas prices, Gloom, Higher prices, Inflation, Learning, Rock bottom
Investment Week (August 23)
In early August, the Bank of England predicted “increased gas prices would cause inflation to rise above 13% by the end of the year.” The consensus is worse. “Goldman Sachs and EY forecast UK consumer price inflation would reach 15%, and Bank of America projected it would peak at 14% in January.” Citi bank has gone further and “riled markets” by forecasting “UK CPI to hit 18.6% in January… beating the 1979 peak when CPI hit 17.8% following the OPEC oil shock.” A recession looks all but inevitable.
Tags: Bank of America, BOE, Citi bank, Consensus, CPI, EY, Forecast, Gas prices, Goldman Sachs, Inflation, Markets, Oil shock, OPEC, Peak, Recession, UK
The Guardian (August 22)
“England currently feels like an eerie, unpoliced, ungoverned, unstable country after a coup. One government is gone but another hasn’t replaced it, and opposition cannot rise to the challenge.” A macro analyst recently wrote that the UK increasingly looks like “an emerging market country…. Brexit coupled with Covid and high inflation have succeeded…. The UK economy is crushed.”
Tags: Analyst, Brexit, Challenge, Coup, Covid, Economy, Eerie, Emerging market, England, Government, Inflation, Opposition, UK, Ungoverned, Unpoliced, Unstable
Real Money (August 17)
“Japan marches to the beat of a different drummer. And its pace, slow and steady, is looking solid as much of the rest of the world contends with the din of roaring inflation and clanging recession.” In contrast, Japan’s “inflation is running at a mild and manageable 2.4% as of July” and Japan looks poised for “steady multiyear growth…. Japanese equities therefore continue to justify themselves as safe havens.”
Tags: Different drummer, Equities, Inflation, Japan, Manageable, Multiyear growth, Pace, Recession, Safe havens, Slow, Solid, Steady
Investing.com (August 9)
“Inflation expectations among consumers in the U.S. have plunged, falling at the fastest rate ever in the history of the New York Federal Reserve’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations.” The July survey revealed “consumers expect inflation to rise 6.2% over the next year and 3.2% over the next three years,” down considerably from 6.8% and 3.6% in June’s survey.
Bloomberg (August 7)
“Sky-high US inflation may finally be approaching a peak as global economic growth sputters and oil and other commodity prices plunge. Now the focus is shifting to how fast and far it will retreat.” The tight job market “is probably the biggest reason why inflation may prove more entrenched than the optimists expect.”
Tags: Commodity prices, Entrenched, Global, Growth, Inflation, Job market, Oil, Optimists, Peak, Plunge, Sky-high, Sputters, U.S.
Institutional Investor (August 4)
“Rampant inflation means the total return that private and community foundations need to break even and pay their beneficiaries is about as high as it’s ever been.” As they face “some of the most challenging mandates they’ve ever encountered,” foundations “will have to make tough decisions about risk and spending to survive.”
Tags: Beneficiaries, Break even, Challenging, Foundations, Inflation, Mandates, Rampant, Risk, Spending, Total return
U.S. News (August 3)
“A surge in consumer demand and pandemic-related logjams holding up containers in key ports had boosted freight rates and profits in the shipping industry in recent quarters, yet the cost of living crisis has reversed that trend.” Shipping giant Maersk, which controls 17% of the container shipping market “expects global container demand to fall this year as sales of durable goods come to a ‘standstill.’” Inflation, “dented consumer demand” and the weaker economy “could lead to a normalization of the global shipping market towards the end of the year.”
Tags: Containers, Crisis, Demand, Durable goods, Freight rates. Profits, Inflation, Logjams, Maersk, Normalization, Pandemic, Ports, Shipping industry, Surge
Wall Street Journal (August 2)
“Bearish investors aren’t buying into hopes that July’s rapid advance for stocks heralds the start of a new bull market. If anything, they say the worst might be yet to come as inflation remains high, the Federal Reserve plans more interest-rate increases and stocks trade at valuations that still don’t look cheap.”
Tags: Bearish, Bull market, Fed, Hopes, Increases, Inflation, Interest rate, Investors, July Stocks, Valuations
Bloomberg (July 27)
In unscripted remarks, Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned interest rates are at a “neutral level,” which is shorthand for “consistent with monetary policy being neither contractionary nor expansionary.” If rates really “are already at neutral. This would improve the chances of the Fed being able to soft-land the economy, thereby reducing inflation with limited damage to livelihoods and without triggering unsettling financial instability.”
Tags: Contractionary, Economy, Expansionary, Fed Chair, Inflation, Instability, Interest rates, Livelihoods, Monetary policy, Neutral level, Powell, Unscripted
