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October 2023
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Reuters (October 2)

2023/ 10/ 03 by jd in Global News

“Tensions between the West and China are rising, from tit-for-tat trade tariffs to tech rivalry and spying allegations. The ramifications for global markets are significant, with Washington and Beijing’s determination to loosen dependence on each other fraying long-established supply chains. That could help keep inflation and interest rates elevated. Still, there are gains for emerging nations and tech giants on the right side of the power battle.”


South China Morning Post (September 26)

2023/ 09/ 28 by jd in Global News

“Foreign investors are returning to Japan’s property market in their droves, attracted by the weak yen and an economic recovery fuelled by the buoyant logistics and hospitality sectors, according to a new report.” Singapore investors are leading the charge with property investments totaling “nearly US$3 billion spent from January to September, eclipsing the around US$2.5 billion from the US, and some US$1 billion from Canada.” Japan’s “mild inflation and favourable financing costs” are also adding to the attraction.


Financial Times (September 1)

2023/ 09/ 03 by jd in Global News

“The US labour market cooled in August, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve is successfully orchestrating a soft landing for the world’s largest economy. Investors hailed a possible Goldilocks scenario in which inflation comes under control without causing a recession, as Friday’s figures revealed an uptick in the unemployment rate, subdued jobs growth and wage rises back at pre-Covid rates.”


Reuters (August 17)

2023/ 08/ 17 by jd in Global News

“Headline inflation in the euro zone has halved in the past nine months and was 5.3% in July. But that’s not good enough for ECB hardliners. They want to see the core number, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, come down sharply before putting an end to the unprecedented climb in the bloc’s interest rates. That measure is falling more slowly and was running at 5.5% in July.” The ECB obsession over core inflation increases the “risk of policy mistake.”


Reuters (August 10)

2023/ 08/ 12 by jd in Global News

“The United States may be over the hump on inflation, but consumers aren’t acting like it. Spending is growing at the same pace as last year, and most Americans expect their finances to either stay the same or get worse…. Lingering restraint will stretch the power of price elasticity to its limits.”


Investment Week (August 4)

2023/ 08/ 07 by jd in Global News

“The outlook for the UK equity market feels particularly depressed and it is not hard to see why. Even after June’s better-than-expected inflation figures, core UK inflation remains high, which suggests higher interest rates for longer. Commentators are expecting that the base rate, which at 5.25% is at its highest for over 15 years, is likely to peak around 5.75%. This would bring even more pain for mortgage borrowers and greater government borrowing costs to an already faltering economy.”


Financial Times (July 29)

2023/ 07/ 30 by jd in Global News

“Inflation is falling for a number of reasons “beyond the Fed’s control,” like an easing of the worst impacts from “the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.” But the Fed’s rate hikes have effectively “reduced demand for credit.” The results can be seen in mortgage debt and car loans. “Overall, growth in non-revolving credit—the loans you take out just once, like a mortgage—is now just below zero.” There’s one snag on the revolving credit side, where credit growth is still “coming from credit cards.”


The Economist (July 22)

2023/ 07/ 23 by jd in Global News

“Economists are not known for their optimism, but today their good cheer is palpable. Not long ago it seemed that an American recession was inevitable.” Now, expectations are heady that this can be averted, but “the surge of hope is… unusual because the world economy is slowing down.” While “falling inflation is good news,” it remains “too early to hail a ‘soft landing.’”


Washington Post (July 20)

2023/ 07/ 21 by jd in Global News

We may be living in a “Goldilocks economy,” but it “has an end date.” Last year, the investors who “thought stagflation was here to stay were wrong, and they’ll be wrong again if they count on Goldilocks sticking around. Growth and inflation will line up sooner or later, and it’s the growth data that provides a better signal for the trajectory of the economy.”


Reuters (July 19)

2023/ 07/ 19 by jd in Global News

“The TOPIX is up 20% this year and trading near a multi-decade high. Some of the drivers are profound. The Tokyo Stock Exchange is asking companies whose shares trade below book value to disclose plans to enhance their market worth, spurring hopes of share buybacks. And the welcome return of inflation could prompt Japanese companies to invest more and pay higher wages, which would in turn prop up consumer spending.”


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