CNBC (November 2)
Tags: 2008, 25 BPS, 4.85%, Benchmark, Borrowing costs, Cash rate, Cost-of-living, CPI, Grapple, Highest, Households, Inflation, RBA
Barron’s (October 21)
Tags: Elevated oil prices, Hope, Hostage crisis playbook, Inflation, Influence, Investors, Iran, Middle East, Options strategist, Respected, Standoff, Strait of Hormuz, Trump, U.S., Weakness
Bloomberg (October 4)
As Middle East crude flows return to near-normal levels, “global prices remain stuck above $100, roughly 40% higher than when the conflict began.” The elevated prices are “sending shock waves through the global economy, feeding inflation and squeezing industries and consumers alike,” but rapid improvement is unlikely. “A confluence of problems” now keeps prices high:” depleted inventories and reserves that need to be replaced, fears the “unresolved war could reignite,” the drastically increased cost of transit, and elsewhere Russia’s war with Ukraine has curtailed other supplies.
Tags: 100, 40% higher, Conflict, Confluence, Consumers, Cost, Crude, Depleted inventories, Fears, Global economy, Industries, Inflation, Middle East, Reignite, Reserves, Russia, Shock waves, Transit, War
The Guardian (September 28)
In the U.S., “consumer sentiment has slid sharply in light of today’s stubborn inflation, mixed with slower economic growth, high interest rates and huge economic uncertainty about trade wars and AI.” A University of Michigan poll found that “consumer sentiment fell in September to its second lowest level ever in the poll’s 74-year history. Only this past May was lower.”
Tags: AI, Consumer sentiment, Economic growth, Economic uncertainty, High interest rates, Inflation, Slid, Slower, Stubborn, Trade wars, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (September 24)
“The AI build-out is becoming the biggest economic bet in U.S. history.” Spending on data centers is already “greater than that for the canals, railroads and grid combined—creating jobs and wealth but also boosting inflation.” Between 2025 and 2032, “total investment in data centers and related artificial-intelligence infrastructure is projected to total $10.3 trillion.” As this investment transforms the economy, “it is also creating significant risk, as much of it is built on debt. An abrupt slowdown could ignite shock waves throughout the U.S. economy.”
Tags: $10.3 trillion, 2032, AI, Build-out, Canals, Data centers, Debt, Economic bet, Grid, Inflation, Infrastructure, Investment, Jobs, Railroads, Risk, Slowdown, Spending, U.S., Wealth
New York Times (September 8)
“Investors are bracing for more inflation data this week that could persuade the Fed to raise its benchmark lending rate for the first time in three years. That uncertainty is roiling the bond market, just as rising oil and copper prices (more on copper below) threaten to pinch households and businesses.”
Tags: Benchmark, Bond market, Bracing, Copper, Fed, Households, Inflation, Investors, Lending rate, Oil, Pinch, Prices, Raise, Rising, Roiling, Uncertainty
San Francisco Chronicle (August 22)
“This week rising bond yields forced the U.S. Treasury Department into an unusual intervention and raised the specter of higher borrowing costs putting the brakes on consumer spending, the lifeblood of the economy. It also sparked concerns that investors might finally be thinking twice about financing a seemingly endless flow of government borrowing.” The Treasury intervention could fail since it doesn’t address “the deeper forces pushing yields higher: federal debt above $40 trillion, persistent deficits, inflation concerns and heavy borrowing tied to the AI investment boom.”
Tags: $40 trillion, AI investment, Bond yields, Boom, Borrowing costs, Concerns, Consumer spending, Deficits, Economy, Financing, Government, Inflation, Intervention, Investors, Rising, Treasury, U.S., Yields Federal debt
The Economist (July 18)
“It is too darn hot. On July 14th the surface temperature of Earth’s tropical and mid-latitude oceans was higher than on any other July 14th in modern records. The same was true for every other day in July, and for almost all of the days in June, too. Europe has gone through three heatwaves since May, and though the continent is better prepared for such things than it used to be, tens of thousands will have died as a result.”
Tags: Bessent, Bonds, Conflict, Currency, Decipher, Dollar, Fiscal concerns, Inflation, Investors, Markets, Middle East, Reassess, Trade war, US, Warsh
The Guardian (July 7)
“Fears of a recession have fallen away, with economists saying Australia is set to safely navigate the biggest global oil supply shock in history even as they warn of substandard growth in the year ahead. The de-escalation of the Middle East conflict has been accompanied by a major retreat in global oil prices back to prewar levels, essentially removing the worst-case scenarios.” But pessimism still runs deep amongst households, with consumer confidence at roughly “a 50-year low as many Australians struggle to cope with substantially higher prices after years of above-average inflation.”
Tags: Australia, Consumer confidence, Cope, De-escalation, Economists, Fears, Global oil prices, Households, Inflation, Middle East conflict, Pessimism, Recession, Retreat, Struggle, Supply shock
Institutional Investor (June 11)
“De-dollarization doesn’t mean capital is leaving America.” Investment decisions are often deceptively labeled de-dollarization even though the capital remains in the U.S. and is simply “changing form, swapping fixed financial claims on dollars for ownership of assets that generate cash flow and reprice with inflation.” Sovereign wealth funds and other institutional investors haven’t dumped dollars, “but increasingly avoid holding dollar claims. Bonds are giving way to utilities, pipelines, and logistics networks. Investors are moving away from returns locked in nominal dollars into assets whose income adjusts with inflation.”
Tags: Adjusts, Assets, Capital, Cash flow, Claims, De-Dollarization, Fixed financial claims, Income, Inflation, Investment decisions, Nominal dollars, Ownership, Reprice, Returns, Sovereign wealth funds, U.S.
