Wall Street Journal (October 3)
“Investors propelled bond yields to multiyear highs Wednesday as robust economic data and an easing of trade tensions across North America sparked fresh optimism about the global growth outlook. Wednesday’s bond rout sent the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, a closely watched barometer of investors’ sentiment toward growth and inflation, to its highest level since July 2011.”
Tags: Bonds, Economic data, Growth, Highs, Inflation, Investors, Optimism, Sentiment, Trade tensions, Treasuries, U.S., Yields
Equities (September 13)
In the U.S., many dismiss inflation because it’s “only about 3%,” a big mistake. In real life, it’s actually “closer to 10%” as revealed by the Chapwood Index, a real-time inflation monitor. “Most cities are seeing inflation at or above 10% per year!” This “stealth inflation” is overlooked “because nobody really sees it unless they are paying attention… Packages of pretzels and chips and snacks contain less than they used to, yet their prices are rising…. Those 16-oz packages may be only 13-oz. now.”
Tags: Chapwood Index, Inflation, Packages, Prices, Real time, Stealth inflation, U.S.
The Economist (August 25)
“America’s bull market in equities turned 3,453 days old” on August 22. “Since hitting a low of 666 in March 2009, the S&P 500 index has increased more than fourfold, driven by strong corporate profits, low inflation, stable economic growth and a boatload of central-bank stimulus. Despite five corrections of at least 10%, the index has never entered bear territory, defined as a drop of at least 20%. Most commentators are declaring this to be the longest bull market in history.”
Tags: Bear, Bull market, Central bank, Economic growth, Equities, Inflation, Profits, S&P 500, Stimulus, U.S.
Reuters (April 23)
“For investors, the key question is whether the ECB’s carefully calibrated exit plan from its ultra easy policy could be scuppered by trade tensions, especially if the dispute between the United States and China sucks in the euro zone. The ECB would have to alter its march towards a more normal policy stance if growing risks from protectionism, exchange rates or market swings end up depressing inflation.”
Tags: China, ECB, Euro zone, Exchange rates, Exit plan, Inflation, Investors, Market swings, Protectionism, Risks, Trade tensions, U.S.
Barrons (December 30)
“Largely absent during the economy’s eight-year recovery from the financial crisis, inflation is on track to pick up in 2018—and it might just catch investors off-guard.” Even a return to modest inflation, e.g. 2.5%, would be a jolt that “could reshuffle the market.”
Investment Week (November)
The recent 0.25% increase “in interest rates announced by the Bank of England leaves us with no more clarity about the direction of monetary policy than we had before the micro-adjustment. Indeed, the increase raises rather more questions than it resolves.” The cut may simply reverse “the rather ill-judged post referendum cut,” Or it could be one off “nod to those worried about inflation becoming more embedded.” Or it could be “the start of a sequence that will see regular increases in rates along a path towards normalisation.”
Tags: Adjustment, BOE, Clarity, Direction, Inflation, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Normalisation, Referendum
The Economist (November 2)
“On some measures, Japan’s labour market is as tight as it has been since the 1970s. America’s jobless rate, at 4.2%, is the lowest for over 16 years. Inflation has nevertheless been surprisingly weak. In other words, the trade-off between unemployment and inflation, known as the Phillips curve, has become less steep.”
Tags: Inflation, Japan, Jobless rate, Labor, Phillips curve, Surprising, Tight, Trade-off, U.S., Unemployment, Weak
Reuters (August 22)
Deflation “has hobbled Japan’s economy for nearly two decades, bedevilling policymakers despite drastic measures aimed at engineering a sustainable recovery.” For the sixth time, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has delayed its 2% inflation target. This time until March 2020. Still, two-thirds of respondents in an August 1-16 Reuters Corporate Survey “saw the inflation goal as unrealistic,” with many of their responses further illustrating the complexities involved in overcoming deflation.
Tags: BOJ, Complexities, Deflation, Delay, Economy, Hobbled, Inflation, Japan, Policymakers, Recovery, Respondents, Survey, Unrealistic
Bloomberg (August 14)
“The last time Japan strung together this many quarters of growth was back in mid-2006…. The yen has fallen, corporate profits have soared and the economy is running above its potential growth rate. Yet inflation remains stubbornly low, despite massive monetary stimulus from the central bank. Economists are watching intently for signs that the tightest labor market in decades is beginning to bring wage gains.”
Tags: Central bank, Economists, Economy, Inflation, Japan. Growth, Labor market, Monetary stimulus, Profits, Wage gains, Yen
Bloomberg (July 18)
“The growing focus on the risks associated with the BOJ’s monetary stimulus program—which includes enormous asset purchases, particularly of Japanese government bonds, as well as negative interest rates and yield curve control—comes as its inflation target remains elusive. With no end to its program in sight, the BOJ is under increasing pressure to mitigate risks and explain its thinking about an eventual exit.” Bloomberg calculated that the BOJ already owns over 70 percent of all shares in Japan-listed ETFs and could soon own most of the free float in companies like Fast Retailing.0000000000000
Tags: Asset purchases, BOJ, ETFs, Fast Retailing, Free float, Inflation, Japan, JGBs, Monetary stimulus, Negative interest rates, Risks, Yield curve control
