MarketWatch (May 15)
“A big bounce for stocks on Friday still leaves the main U.S. stock market benchmark close to entering a bear market as investors fret over the Federal Reserve’s ability to get a grip on inflation without sinking the economy stokes fears of stagflation — a pernicious combination of slow economic growth and persistent inflation.”
Washington Post (May 8)
“Why are Americans so gloomy about the economy? Jobs are plentiful and unemployment is back at pre-pandemic lows, yet sentiment is in the dumps.” Inflation is “the obvious answer,” but “a deeper force” better explains “why Americans are so upset: scarcity.” Inventories of homes and cars are at record lows while stockouts at supermarkets are double or triple standard levels. “There is good economic news, but until Americans can easily get ahold of what they want, too many will still feel like they’re not able to get ahead.”
Tags: Cars, Economy, Gloomy, Homes, Inflation, Inventories, Jobs, Obvious, Plentiful, Pre-pandemic, Scarcity, Sentiment, Stockouts, U.S., Unemployment
Bloomberg (May 5)
“The collective sigh of relief in markets after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against super-sized hike speculation may be short lived.” The strategists “who fear inflation” suspect this is a “false dawn.”
Tags: Collective, Fed, Hike, Inflation, Markets, Powell, Relief, Short lived, Speculation, Strategists, Suspect
Barron’s (May 2)
“Sure, it feels like the S&P 500 has nowhere to go but down….and sentiment toward stocks remains terrible.” Given this, ”you’d expect to see fundamentals crumbling. They haven’t. About 80% of companies have reported better-than-expected profits this earnings season, while margins of non-bank companies, at least, have increased from the fourth quarter despite higher inflation.” With everyone “so terrified” and fundamentals strong, “stocks might be ready to rise.”
Tags: Better-than-expected, Earnings season, Fundamentals, Inflation, Margins, Non-banks, Profits, Q4, S&P 500, Sentiment, Stocks, Terrified
New York Times (May 2)
“The recent performance of the stock market, which in April took its biggest monthly dive in two years, is hinting at economic trouble ahead, and is the latest complication in the Fed’s fight against inflation.”
Tags: April, Complication, Dive, Economic trouble, Fed, Fight, Inflation, Performance, Stock market
Wall Street Journal (April 26)
“Worries about the war in Ukraine, China’s Covid-19 outbreak, a U.S. or European recession and surging global inflation are making a long-spurned asset increasingly popular with Wall Street’s top money managers these days: cash.” Increasingly asset managers “are looking to move funds into low-risk, cash-like assets. That marks a shift from recent years, when steadily climbing equity indexes trained investors to buy every dip and not miss out on gains by holding cash.”
Tags: Asset, Asset managers, Cash, China, COVID-19, Dip, Europe, Inflation, Investors, Low-risk, Money managers, Recession, Shift, Spurned, Surging, U.S., Ukraine, Wall Street, War, Worries
Bloomberg (April 18)
“The slower the Fed, the harder the landing.” Quick action while inflation expectations are “still well anchored” will minimize the “cost in terms of foregone output and higher unemployment.” Those costs will mushroom if the Fed “waits and allows inflation expectations to get out of hand.” A recession remains unlikely in 2022, but if there isn’t one “in the next couple years, it will only be worse.”
Tags: Anchored, Costs, Expectations, Fed, Inflation, Landing, Output, Quick action, Recession, Slower, Unemployment, Worse
Wall Street Journal (April 7)
“With inflation high and the job market tight… policy makers are inclined to reduce the Fed’s $9 trillion balance sheet at a much more rapid pace than they did during the quantitative-tightening round that began in October 2017, when inflation was much cooler and the unemployment rate was higher.” The resulting “quantitative-tightening tantrum could go on a lot longer than the taper tantrum did.”
Tags: 2017, Balance sheet, Fed, Inflation, Job market, Policy makers, Quantitative tightening, Tight, Unemployment
Investment Week (March 28)
Global dealmaking has dropped “to its lowest level since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic…. Just over $1trn of deals were struck in the first quarter of 2022, nearly a quarter less than the same period last year.” Primary factors behind slowing M&A activity appear to be “tougher regulations on both sides of the Atlantic, soaring inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
Tags: 2022, COVID-19, Dealmaking, Global, Inflation, M&A, Outbreak, Pandemic, Q1, Regulation, Russia, Slowing, Soaring, Tougher, Ukraine, War
Wall Street Journal (March 15)
This week, the Fed meets “to address the worst inflation in 40 years amid new risks to economic growth.” The mess is “largely of the Fed’s own making. The central bank’s inflation target is 2% for personal-consumption expenditure inflation, and the rate in February was probably three times higher.” The Fed’s “historic exertions were needed” when Covid struck, but it continued them for “too long, even as the money supply exploded and clear signs of inflation began to appear.”
Tags: Central bank, Covid, Economic growth, Fed, Inflation, Inflation target, Mess, Money supply, Personal consumption, Risks
